Who plays lotto (Lottery...any form)

[sandholm]

$8 a week on a lotto ticket, have won 1 car (Volvo S60) and a couple of thousand dollars in cash, so I am definite on the plus side.

on the other hand i also put together a football ticket every week, $14, here I am definitive on the negative side, big time...

[jdizzle113]

Actually, in a purely statistical sense, buying a ticket does increase your chances... if you buy the minimum one entry set of numbers, your chances increase from zero probability to an infinitesimally small probability (an enormously large percentual shift in probability space). To some - like myself - it may even be seen as an extremely speculative derivatives position (such as land in Dubai)

Yeah, if you think of things in relative odds 10^-7 or 10^-8 is an infinite increase in your probability from zero. But use of relative odds is pretty useless in the real scheme of things. That's how the media spins scientific data to make things seem more sensational (e.g. your odds of cancer from eating a certain food increase 20 fold (relative risk) - when really the increase is from p=0.00000000001 to p=0.0000000002 (absolute risk). ).

What I meant was your chances in terms of absolute probability - your p-value is so small that it might as well be zero.

To maximise the potential reward on my investment, I don't buy a ticket for any draw of less than 60 million (notice how the chances are the same but the potential reward could be at least 1400% more than in a typical weekend 4 million draw)... since we don't get many of those here in OZ, I don't spend more than 10 bucks a year in lotto... and I don't lose more than 10 bucks a year in such schemes.

That makes sense - if the payoff is overvalued for your odds of actually winning then it becomes a "good bet" (statistically) and you should take it. Doesn't matter if you win - statistically it's the right thing to do - and rational.

[sepp]

Maybe... just got this in my email....

Atten, Email User

Your e-mail address have just won for you (Ђ950.000.00)only. file for your claim quoting these references: REF:HJD/1162-5/1017;

BATCH:KUX-7708-07-0789; Full winning details will be made known to you upon your confirmation of this mail and filing of your claims. Dr.Bakker

Peter.TEL:+31645139114 Email: ([email protected] and [email protected]) Once again congratulations. Your email address

has brought to you this unexpected luck.

Mrs.Johanne brunet

Lottery coordinator)

[Nocoins]

I play major lotteries, but only $1 or $2 at a time. I've never won anything substantial. The most I have won at one time is $74.00 in a lottery where you must match 6 numbers, and I matched the first 4. My heart was in my throat once I found 4 in a row, and then . . . damn The grand prize that day was $56 million.

However, I am acquainted with a couple whose parents won over $6 million, and they still play because the guy is convinced he's going to win again. Another family I know of won about $750,000, and they appeared to put most of it into inflatable lawn ornaments.

[thechenman]

Inflatable Lawn Ornaments huh? My kind of people. Must take a lot of money in terms of electricity costs and patches to light and pump air into those suckers all day long.

I play major lotteries, but only $1 or $2 at a time. I've never won anything substantial. The most I have won at one time is $74.00 in a lottery where you must match 6 numbers, and I matched the first 4. My heart was in my throat once I found 4 in a row, and then . . . damn The grand prize that day was $56 million.

However, I am acquainted with a couple whose parents won over $6 million, and they still play because the guy is convinced he's going to win again. Another family I know of won about $750,000, and they appeared to put most of it into inflatable lawn ornaments.

[thechenman]

I'll play 5 Quick Picks ($5) whenver the MegaMillions Lottery gets over $100M. I won't go out of my way, but if I'm at the gas station buying a late night gallon of milk, I'll play the odds. Other than that never. Never won more than $10 on a single ticket. Lifetime winnings would not exceed $100. I think it's the slogan that gets me..."You never know..."

[bunburyist]

seeking possibly a modest 20% increase per annum

I like your 'modest'....

[qman22]

I'll buy a powerball ticket when it reaches around $300M, but other than that I don't really buy them. I'll also occasionally get scratch-offs as gifts, but have never won anything. I guess I'm condemned to work for a living...

[thechenman]

Agreed. I know portfolio managers who would give their left nut for consistent 20% returns. Come to think of it...even Bernie Madoff didn't give returns like that (claimed only 12% to 15%) and he got $50B in assets from investors over time.

I like your 'modest'....

[Rogers72]

Don't touch them. I give them as gifts sometime around the holiday season but $10-$15 a week for me is about my cigar budget so I'm sure you don't want me blowing it on the Lotto!

[Shelby07]

I'm with rob on this one. For about 100 bucks a year I'd rather be in than out.

I spend $26 every 13 weeks on an advance play ticket (same 6 numbers good for 2 draws a week for 13 weeks.) A couple times a year I win $3. My odds of winning the big prize are about the same as if you put my name along with the names of 63% of the US population in a really big hat and then having my name drawn. It's obvious that someday I'm gonna win the big one. I don't care if its a smaller prize. I'l just keep playing and win the big one a couple of times.

[Loki]

I only play when the jackpots get up around 30 million. My friend Vaugn won $250,000 last year on the big game multi state pick 6. He walked away with about $180k.

[Nocoins]

Agreed, better in than out for me. I play about twice a week. The slogan of one of the lotteries is "You Can't Win If You Don't Play." No argument there.

[LeafLover]

Shi, lottery is worse than Las Vegas. No ROI at all. At least in Vegas, you can lose at the table and watch the eye candy pass by.

But, if I ever win the lotto, be forewarned that I am buying all of Prez's HQ and PSP boxes. But my greed ends there. I'll raffle off a box to FOH once a month.

Leaf Lover

[jacksfull]

A friend of mine gets about $125K (US) a year on an annuity from hitting a relatively small jackpot about 15 years ago... something like $3M. At the time we had no cash option here. I think he has about 10 years left, but has been wise enough to keep working and save most of his winnings.

I hit a consolation for $5K (US) several years ago... just missed $14M on that one. I had 5 of 6 right and missed the last number by one digit (had #23, needed 24... a heartbreaker). Still, that's pretty well kept me interested and covered my tickets for quite a while (still in the black on tickets years later, I'd guess). I do pay attention to the odds, though. Nothing when a new pot is just getting going, a few bucks in the mid-range, and maybe $10 when it gets over $100M.

Sure, the odds of winning are infintesimal. However, the potential is life changing. Our multi-state game is currently at $140M (annuitized). Cash option comes out to about $50M after taxes. I think that's worth risking a few dollars. Idiot tax or not, someone's going to win that eventually. It might as well be me.

-------------------------------------------

There's an old story that goes something like this:

One day old-man Herb goes into church and kneels down at the alter. He prays, "God, you know I've never asked you for anything, and I've always lived a clean and humble life. But, I do want to ask for something from you before I die. Let me hit the lottery... just this one time before I come to join you. I'm 87 years old, and I don't have much longer to live. So, it's not about the money. I won't be around to spend it anyway. No, God, it's just that I've never won anything in my whole life. Before I go I'd like to know what it feels like to be a winner. That's all. Just let me feel like a winner this one time before I die. God, please. Can you do that for me? Amen."

This goes on for several weeks. Every Sunday, "God, you know I've never asked you for anything..."

But nothing. No big score, no win... and the lotto continued to grow and grow.

After many weeks and many draws with no results, Herb is just fed up. He storms into church. Refuses to kneel. And, with his chin out and his chest puffed up, he says in an angry, frustrated voice, "OK, GOD, THAT'S IT! I'VE HAD ENOUGH. I asked you for just this one thing... and such a small thing for you." He continues, mockingly, "Let me be a winner just this one time." He throws up his hands, angry again, "But, NOOOOOO, you couldn't even give me the satisfaction of this one thing before I die. I'VE HAD IT!" In tears, he says, "I'm forsaking you, and I'm forsaking the church, like you have forsaken me. I'm never going to walk in this church again. NEVER! I'm never going to pray to you or mention your name again. NEVER!"

With that Herb turns to storm down the aisle and out of the church. But as he goes, God's voice booms down from behind the alter. "I have not forsaken you, Herb. Please, meet me halfway. For once, BUY A TICKET!"

*******

If you don't play, you can't win!

[jdizzle113]

Sure, the odds of winning are infintesimal. However, the potential is life changing. Our multi-state game is currently at $140M (annuitized). Cash option comes out to about $50M after taxes. I think that's worth risking a few dollars. Idiot tax or not, someone's going to win that eventually. It might as well be me.

It's not really just about the odds - it's about if the payout is fair compared to the odds of winning - the house edge. If it is, then it makes sense, but then if it's not - you're playing a game rigged against you. It would be like betting on a coin toss - where if you win you get paid $1.50 (instead of a fair $2). You might win that bet - but it would be a bad bet. It's not always about if you win or lose - it's about making the right choice. If you play any game with a house edge - the longer you play, the greater you chance of losing is.

I don't know what the odds of lottery is - 15 000 000 to one? or more - and I don't know what the price of a ticket is - but if the payout is less than the price of the ticket multiplied by your odds - then it's a bad bet...

[thechenman]

Statistically speaking that is correct...but I think the lottery is more of an emotional thing. People play for the dream with the knowledge that the odds are stacked well against them.

[jacksfull]

It's not really just about the odds - it's about if the payout is fair compared to the odds of winning - the house edge. If it is, then it makes sense, but then if it's not - you're playing a game rigged against you...

...if the payout is less than the price of the ticket multiplied by your odds - then it's a bad bet...

Mathematically speaking, I agree with you. However, beyond a certain point the odds:payout ceases to be the overriding factor.

The cost of playing is an insignificant amount (or should be) and the payout so monumentous (at times) that the odds do not matter in the same sense that they would in casino games or para-mutual betting.

Even when the jackpot does eclipse the odds it's still not exactly what I'd call a "good bet". It's strictly a risk/reward situation. Small risk, large reward. The odds are against it and rarely "fair". But, where else can a dollar turn you into a multi-millionaire overnight?

[bassman]

Made a bundle in the stock market lottery in the 1980s buying Asian stocks. Still heavily invested in China. Figure since they're gonna own the country, better to invest there than here!