US Elections question

[shrink]

If he weren't black, Obama would be a shoo-in. He's got everything going for him...

He's young, he's charismatic, he's articulate.

The electorate is hungry for a new direction.

The Republicans are on the defensive, because of the war, the economy, and scandals.

But he's a *****, and a lot of Americans are anxious about that. They have trouble focusing on the reason, so they talk about Jeremiah Wright, or question his patriotism, or suspect his wife of being un-American, and there is this toxic undercurrent about a possible Muslim past.

The real issue is racism. America has reached the crossroads in its historic dilemma about integrating the ***** into our social and political culture. It was one thing to "give" them the vote, or the right to public accomodations, jobs or education. It's always been "OK" to give them anything. But when "they" begin to "take" anything, especially power, well... that's something else again.

This election will tear at America's soul, it's spirit, it's ideals and it's shameful prejudices and fears. This election will go a long way towards revealing how far we have come as a multi-racial and mult-cultural society.

I'd like to think that we have matured enough to make it possible for anyone, man or woman, to reach for the highest office in the land.

[phxkev]

This is a good site to watch how the race unfolds. It is not a national election. It is 51 seperate elections of electors.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[El Presidente]

Articulately put Shrink.

I sometimes think the US rides itself a little hard on issues of race.

You have a black man (I know he is mixed race but that is not how he is perceived) running for the presidency. I don't think we have an Aboriginal man or woman in Parliament.

Try living and working in Japan, married to a Japanese girl and being non Japanese. Tough as my ex brother in law knows well.

Singaporean Indians are not keen on the Chinese and they both look down on the Malaysians. A Muslim father kills his daughter here last year for going out with a non muslim boy. My mother could never reconcile my brother going out with a Chinese/New Guinean lass who was drop dead gorgeous and a lovely person....but black. I grew up with black kids playng football and many spent plenty of time at my house, went on holidays with the family etc.....never a problem. Yet go out with one in a relationship ....it was the end of the world.

We have race riots in Sydney.....there are similar in the UK. Street protests about immigrants in Spain. My relatives in Spain detest africans who do all the labourous jobs. The "white " Cubans don't trust the blacks and there are times that you could cut the tension with a knife.

Ken hates Kiwis

Regardless if Obama wins or loses, the US has made a very powerfull point to the rest of the world. You are not perfect but in this case the ideal of "opportunity regardless of race or religious belief" is being played out and comes on the back of Condi Rice, Powell etc.

For all the faults which may be inherrent in US race relations (you don't own them).....that is very powerfull symbolism.

[cvm4]

Obama's views are too left and he's too inexperienced. Not to mention his economic plans don't look too good for the economy.

[tigger]

If he picks the right VP candidate, I think Obama has a reasonable chance of winning. McCain is a staunch supporter of a highly unpopular war, and despite his "maverick" image, is closely tied to a party which, rightly or wrongly, is closely associated with the growing economic mess we're in.

As disliked as he is in some circles, Obama isn't as polarizing as Hillary, and I expect that while diehard Republicans will vote for McCain, some conservative-minded independents will sit the election out, or vote for a third party.

Not saying it's a lock, by any means, but I think B.O. has a "serious chance."

I think they're both really poor choices, personally.

[brooklyn]

Obama,despite my Democratic leanings. McCain is tied to failed domestic,financial,and militaristic policies.

His bagage is the spend thrift Republican congress, BUsh's lies, BIg Oil's profits at the expense of the public( and this at a time of so-called war), and manipulated commodities' markets.

Obama has to push past the race barrier. This is still are country recovering from the blight of Calvinism,this most virulent form of Reformationist Protestantism. That coupled with evangelical Baptists who act like OLd Testament Jews rather than New Testamnet Christians will be a formidable wall for Obama to crash through. Hopefully, he will address those citizens and engage them in a "Are you better off now...." dialogue.

Off to class.

[brooklyn]

We had that under Democratic government; spend and "tax" ( fees!) under Republicans. One would be simply partisan to be lock step with Bush after all he has done. Simply read what the only balls carrying congressman Kucinch has done . Go to wexlerwants hearings.com to read Articles of Impeachment. Bush and his oil compnay thugs really ****ed over the US electorate with their us or them policies. Just like the re baiters of the cold war, this administration has no dignity nor shame for trumping up the war, sending young people to die in an ill planned invasion.

Seven years later, the murderer is still at large. On Bush's watch with plenty of warnings, Americans and our guests were slaughtered in the WTC buildings.

Bush is all about lies and economic three card monty. HIs administration is an affront to all things sacred to the average thinking citizen. How could one still support this punk who left ammo dumps (IEDs anyone?) and museums while rushing to protect the oil ministry? Soldiers died while Bush lied.

WWJD Republicans?

[Rogers72]

As a southern, American, white, male, conservative, i will echo most of the sentiment above regarding the role of race in this match. I think that Obama has made it this far b/c the Democratic party relies so heavily on the black vote and they have turned out in droves in support of him thus far. I think that alone gives him a "chance" given that he will sweep the resurgent black vote as well as the far left white vote in November. That alone will give him 20-30% in the popular vote. I do not think that he will be able to sway many white undecideds nor ANY white conservatives. I also believe that, in their heart of hearts, many democrats who aren't to the extreme left will not vote for a black man...much less a black man who is also of islamic decent. There is still a great deal of racism in this country from both sides. Obama won the democratic party b/c he is black, not in spite of it. In the end, he will lose the general election b/c he is black and to the extreme, scary left. I think that, unless something crazy happens, the Obama camp will keep it very close or maintain a lead in all of the pre-election polling, etc. but those polls do not show the decisions of the heart that will take place when the ballots are cast. There is a great deal of racism within the democratic party that will outweigh toeing the old party line.

That said, McCain is an extremely weak candidate primarily b/c of his age and general lack of charisma. His winning of the GOP primary is more of a shock to me than Obama's victory. That is another wild card and anything CAN happen. I guess the bottom line of this rambling is that I believe and hope McCain will win but I would put nothing more than a case of very cheap wine on it.

[El Presidente]

Excellent thought provoking post.

[anacostiakat]

Well of course he has a serious chance.

Personally I think if he chooses Hitlery for his VP that would be a hugh mistake. Webb will probably be his choice and is equally as liberal.

Also, if you think voting for John McCain is voting for 4 more years of Bush you are truely mistaken.

BTW, voting for Obama will be a repeat of Jimmah Carter.

[IShotAManInReno]

» Excellent thought provoking post.

Rob:

This forum might not be the best venue to get a balanced view for U.S. Politics. The demographics of your average cigar smoker is not necessarily reflective of the average American voter.

If you are truly using our responses to make an educated "bet", be cautious in how much weight you put on our perceptions.

And, most importantly, make sure to share any proceeds!

[tigger]

Oh, and Rob, if you can word the bet so that he's "not President come November," take it, as regardless of who wins, the inauguration won't happen until January of 2009. :-P

[brooklyn]

Exactly correct;racism is so deeply imbedded in this culture that it will take ages for mind's and cultures to shift.

[gehrig24]

» If he picks the right VP candidate, I think Obama has a reasonable chance

» of winning.

My thoughts exactly. If for some reason Obama were to pick Hillary as his running mate I am not sure how they could be beat. The demographics that they would cover for votes would be too much for McCain and whoever to over come (IMO).

That being said, if they are on the same ticket and win, I might be looking for a new house......in Canada. :-D

[Mike33]

» » Excellent thought provoking post.

»

» Rob:

»

» This forum might not be the best venue to get a balanced view for U.S.

» Politics. The demographics of your average cigar smoker is not

» necessarily reflective of the average American voter.

»

» If you are truly using our responses to make an educated "bet", be

» cautious in how much weight you put on our perceptions.

»

» And, most importantly, make sure to share any proceeds!

Exactly....older, white males are not exactly diverse in their political views. If the only Americans casting votes were this demographic, the GOP would be the far-left party ;-)

[Hugomarink]

» I think I will retire early and move to Australia at least I can smoke my

» Habanos in peace.

Just be careful of the spiders down there. They're maneaters. ;-)

[Hugomarink]

To throw in my two cents, I definitely think Obama has a great chance to win but it's going to be close and it's going to be tough. All stops will be pulled out to make the witless and gullible among us believe Obama is a Muslim, related to terrorists, soft/inexperienced on foreign policy matters, anti-military, socialist, etc. I expect it's going to be quite ugly, especially if McCain is trailing.

[jdbrown]

Look what Clinton supporters have formed since last weekend.

justsaynodeal.com

This is gonna get ugly.

[Guest Warren]

I read a story in the paper last week that was saying that Oprah's popularity has taken a dive ever since she started pushing Obama's barrow so hard. The story also said that once she realised this , she has since limited her support for Obama. It was found that the vast majority of her viewers were Hillery supporters.

Could this also be an small indication of what may come .

And before Colt says a word , no I DO NOT WATCH OPRAH.

[Wiley]

» As a southern, American, white, male, conservative, i will echo most of the

» sentiment above regarding the role of race in this match. I think that

» Obama has made it this far b/c the Democratic party relies so heavily on

» the black vote and they have turned out in droves in support of him thus

» far. I think that alone gives him a "chance" given that he will sweep the

» resurgent black vote as well as the far left white vote in November. That

» alone will give him 20-30% in the popular vote. I do not think that he

» will be able to sway many white undecideds nor ANY white conservatives. I

» also believe that, in their heart of hearts, many democrats who aren't to

» the extreme left will not vote for a black man...much less a black man who

» is also of islamic decent. There is still a great deal of racism in this

» country from both sides. Obama won the democratic party b/c he is black,

» not in spite of it. In the end, he will lose the general election b/c he

» is black and to the extreme, scary left. I think that, unless something

» crazy happens, the Obama camp will keep it very close or maintain a lead

» in all of the pre-election polling, etc. but those polls do not show the

» decisions of the heart that will take place when the ballots are cast.

» There is a great deal of racism within the democratic party that will

» outweigh toeing the old party line.

»

» That said, McCain is an extremely weak candidate primarily b/c of his age

» and general lack of charisma. His winning of the GOP primary is more of a

» shock to me than Obama's victory. That is another wild card and anything

» CAN happen. I guess the bottom line of this rambling is that I believe

» and hope McCain will win but I would put nothing more than a case of very

» cheap wine on it.

Dude, I really want to respond to this, and I suspect you'll be offended, but that's not my goal. However, your post reinforces my belief that you Easterners are really a different country than us in the West. Every Democrat I know, and I know a lot around these parts, thinks that Obama is the second coming of Jesus Christ, including in their heart of hearts, and they're all as white as snow.

[Rogers72]

»

» Dude, I really want to respond to this, and I suspect you'll be offended,

» but that's not my goal. However, your post reinforces my belief that you

» Easterners are really a different country than us in the West. Every

» Democrat I know, and I know a lot around these parts, thinks that Obama is

» the second coming of Jesus Christ, including in their heart of hearts, and

» they're all as white as snow.

Not offended at all. The main reason that I qualified myself in my opening sentence was to let you all know where my perspective was coming from. I totally agree that you and I basically live in separate countries and there are many white democrats out here also who think Obama is great...Also many white democrats who have been very quiet lately and who I believe will cross the aisle in fair numbers in November. By fair numbers, I would say at the most 10% of the party's white moderates...that will be significant i think. I think we may also have many more white moderate democrats in the north and southeast than there are out west but I really don't have much knowledge of the political climate of the west. I am also of the opinion that there are many Jewish democrats (and non-Jewish) who will not vote for someone named Barack Hussein Obama. I am not saying that I share any of these views, only that I feel that these views do indeed exist and will play a role in keeping the match close.

[El Presidente]

I think we are witnessing something quite historic.

Not referring to Obama's run for the presidency, but rather......the first ever measured and vitriol free political debate on a cigar forum

[Wiley]

» Not offended at all. The main reason that I qualified myself in my

» opening sentence was to let you all know where my perspective was coming

» from. I totally agree that you and I basically live in separate countries

» and there are many white democrats out here also who think Obama is

» great...Also many white democrats who have been very quiet lately and who

» I believe will cross the aisle in fair numbers in November. By fair

» numbers, I would say at the most 10% of the party's white moderates...that

» will be significant i think. I think we may also have many more white

» moderate democrats in the north and southeast than there are out west but

» I really don't have much knowledge of the political climate of the west.

» I am also of the opinion that there are many Jewish democrats (and

» non-Jewish) who will not vote for someone named Barack Hussein Obama. I

» am not saying that I share any of these views, only that I feel that these

» views do indeed exist and will play a role in keeping the match close.

You're right about Blue Dogs. When I try to explain the concept of moderate Democrats (example is anti-abortion) to the Dems around here they spit fire. I get the impression they think they're worse than Republicans. Actually, at first I think they thought I was making up stories to frighten them.

[Fishhound]

» American's vote their emotions. The heart always wins over the head.

»

» In 2000, Gore was a better candidate than Bush by most measures, but

» people were a little pissed about the whole Lewinski thing and voted to

» express their anger. Plus, Gore did not have quite as likable of a

» personality. Bush wins. (Republicans had a cash advantage too.)

»

» In 2008, people are even more pissed at the establishment - for all of the

» obvious reasons - of which McCain is strongly associated. Along comes a

» fresh, new, young face with a new message of hope. Add that Obama has a

» slight edge in the "likability" department. Obama wins on both accounts.

» (This time, Democrats have the funding advantage.)

»

» If I'm a betting man I'd bet on Obama.

Sorry to run off topic here, but that election was a farce. Bush won by the electoral college vote. The popular vote went to Gore, which just goes to show you every vote is not created equal.

To stay on topic, I will say Obama has a good chance in winning. I'm not happy with the choice of either candidate, nor do I feel that either one is capable of doing anything great for us.

[marco polo]

» » American's vote their emotions. The heart always wins over the head.

» »

» » In 2000, Gore was a better candidate than Bush by most measures, but

» » people were a little pissed about the whole Lewinski thing and voted to

» » express their anger. Plus, Gore did not have quite as likable of a

» » personality. Bush wins. (Republicans had a cash advantage too.)

» »

» » In 2008, people are even more pissed at the establishment - for all of

» the

» » obvious reasons - of which McCain is strongly associated. Along comes

» a

» » fresh, new, young face with a new message of hope. Add that Obama has

» a

» » slight edge in the "likability" department. Obama wins on both

» accounts.

» » (This time, Democrats have the funding advantage.)

» »

» » If I'm a betting man I'd bet on Obama.

»

» Sorry to run off topic here, but that election was a farce. Bush won by

» the electoral college vote. The popular vote went to Gore, which just goes

» to show you every vote is not created equal.

»

» To stay on topic, I will say Obama has a good chance in winning. I'm not

» happy with the choice of either candidate, nor do I feel that either one

» is capable of doing anything great for us.

Don't you know the Masons control everything?? :-P