US Elections question

[El Presidente]

I have always been a history and politics nut and the forthcoming US elections intrigue me.

Regardless of your hard political views......do you believe Obama has a serious chance?

Looking from the outside in he no doubt carries some baggage which is well documented. Yet if you take in a mood for change within community, tough economic times, his youth and oratory ability, the war in Iraq which is generally unpopular, the move of previous tertiary issues (green issues) to the mainsteam, a Teflon ability to avoid mud sticking, a positive left leaning media and finally an opponent in his 70's (albeit well credentialed).......would you say he is at this point favourite for the Presidential Election.

Regardless of what your political position is.......who does your "head" tell you is going to win?

The reason for the question is that I may or may not have the opportunity to take a bet on a case of wine that he will not be President come November. I am not so sure and am tempted to take the bet.

[ArloGut]

Well I be the first to bite...

Obama does carry himself very well, he speaks well and seems to say the right things about the War to the majority of folks here in the US who think the war is just a way of George W getting back at Saddam for showing up his Daddy. I would say that the majority of people are just tired or hearing so many bad things about the war (most of which is coming from the Leftiest Media) I agree that we could have done things different but we did what we did and so we must live with the decisions that Bush made.

We Americans are a funny bunch, McCain is the most qualified of the two canidates but because he has some of the same views as Bush he is now a marked man. Unfortunally I think Obama will win the election I just hope he picks a good Vice President who can be a good diplomat. (If he picks Hillary then McCain has a better shot)

I am a Republican so I will vote for McCain, I did vote for Hucklebee during the primary I think he or Romnie would of ben the better canidate.

I think I will retire early and move to Australia at least I can smoke my Habanos in peace.

[havanaclub7]

Prez,

I'm a diehard Republican and support our current President even though I disagree with some of the things he's done and also think he's done a poor job of selling the rest of the things I agree 100% with.

That said, I think I'd bet against Obama becoming president. I think he's a far weaker candidate than Hillary. Actually, he's pretty much a lightweight. He was in the Senate for less than one year before formally running for President. I think his rhetorical skills are amazing, but the policies he's advocating are from the Jimmy Carter years.

Not only that, but Obama limped across the finish line with several embarassing defeats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, South Dakota and elsewhere. Those states have a lot of blue collar white voters, women and elderly people. Obama does not poll well among those groups. An advisor for Clinton, Paul Begala, said that Obama can't win with only black voters and pointy headed liberals.

In a normal year, McCain would be toast. If Hillary were the nominee, I think McCain would be toast. But not against Obama. The only way Obama can win is if the U.S. economy tanks or if there is a serious increase of U.S. casualties in Iraq. Otherwise, McCain should comfortably win.

[Thomas]

We now have droves of Hildabeast supporters vowing to vote republican for the first time in their lives

Obama is going to get his hat handed to him

[puros71]

Im a proud Combat Veteran who will be voting for Barack Obama. Good VP possibilities James Webb senator from Virginia, Bill Richardson Governor of New Mexico, and Hillary. I respect Mccain for his his service in Vietnam but voting him would be like another term of Bush.

[havanaclub7]

On a side note, Prez, if I were you I'd hope for McCain. Obama has already said he would sit down with Raul Castro. I could see him selling out the Cubans in Florida and lift the embargo rather quickly regardless of merit. Obama is one of these guys who won't be afraid of selling the interests of the U.S. down the river in favor of greater "world opinion."

[Colt45]

» Regardless of your hard political views......do you believe Obama has a

» serious chance?

I could not venture to speak for the rest of the over three hundred million U.S. citizens, as I've

not spoken to them, and I doubt anyone has. But I will give you my personal opinion.

In my home state of Massachusetts, term after term, people have elected Ted Kennedy to

the senate - John Kerry as well. The people of New York elected Hillary Clinton to the senate -

she's not from New York.

Anything can happen.

[El Presidente]

We had a successfull Government for 12 years. Not overly popular (but respected) mind you but 12 years of economic growth and general prosperity.

The new opposition leader (November 06) at the time was one of consensus between warring factions of the opposition labor party. No one really gave him a chance. Yet he was articulate, intelligent (came across that way) and a generation younger than John Howard, our Prime Minister at that time.

The Government had a lot going for it coming into the election. Experienced leadership (against inexperienced opposition team) and a track record of good economic management. Yet extended periods in Government always carries some baggage which the opposition exploited very well.

Inthe end there was an unquantifiable mood for "change" in the electorate. If you asked anyone to clarify what this mood was...what it entailed...the answers were generally nebulous. Yet on the day they came out and voted for this "change". The swing was near enough 5% from the last election ....only 5 in 100 people....but it was enough to change government convincingly.

Undercurrent or electoral mood is very hard to fight. It is like fighting at shadows.

If you put your own leanings aside......how do members from the US sense the "mood".

[Mel39]

I'd have a bet that if Obama makes President, he'll be assassinated within the year.

[Ken Gargett]

mate of mine is a serial punter on elections. takes the emotion out of it and then makes his decision. up until last year, he had never lost on any election (as rob says, 12 years of a decent govt, notwithstanding some idiots - and they still went).

he is backing mccain every time he sees decent odds.

[puros71]

» I'd have a bet that if Obama makes President, he'll be assassinated within

» the year.

Why? What would make you say something like that? Do we have a race problem here in the United States?

[Mike33]

I'm not going to voice my leanings as others have because that's not the purpose of this thread. The question was does Obama have a chance, and the answer is clearly yes. Here's a sampling of some of the most recent national polls:

[link=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html]Link[/link]

I think Obama has ground to make up however as it pertains to the electoral college. There are once again only a handful of states that will decide the election, maybe a dozen or so. Right now, I would say that McCain has the edge in the most important states (Flordia and Ohio), but I'm sure a lot will change even before the conventions.

[Lanthor]

»

» If you put your own leanings aside......how do members from the US sense

» the "mood".

The mood is not good. It will be a very tight race. Obama is not inspiring enough to draw republicans to change their votes, nor is McCain to the other side. And those who think Hillary backers will vote for McCain are fooling themselves in my opinion.

The country is basically split 50/50 and I don't see either candidate being strong enough to drastically tip the scales. All the republicans I know are voting Rebulican, all the Democrats I know are voting Democrat.

All this being said, I think the most powerful statistic (and the one you should place your bet on) is that an incumbant party has never won in bad economy. Also, only once in the last 60 years has a two term party won a third.

We have not had a negative quarter yet, but I am sure it is coming.

[El Presidente]

» Do we have a race

» problem here in the United States?

No more of a race problem that we have in Australia, or UK, or Spain, or Cuba or pretty much every other place I have spent time in.

[jdbrown]

Obama will jump out to a fairly good size lead. McCain will slowly narrow the gap until election day. If you look at Obama's proposal's they are utterly rediculous and will lead us to further dispair. His past associations with far left wack jobs will further test his credibility and judgement. The people that will vote for him are misguided and misinformed! I think it will be a tight race but McCain will prevail.

[puros71]

» » Do we have a race

» » problem here in the United States?

»

» No more of a race problem that we have in Australia, or UK, or Spain, or

» Cuba or pretty much every other place I have spent time in.

Rob thats wasnt for you if was towards the guy who said Obama would get assasinated.

[El Presidente]

» Rob thats wasnt for you if was towards the guy who said Obama would get

» assasinated.

I know mate. It is a line that has been raised in the foreign media since Hillary Clinton alluded to it during the primaries (which she denied inferring). I found it one of the more distastefull lines during what was a fiercely and well contested election. Yes...I know she did not say it directly but no one could have missed the meaning behind the train of thought.

[Mike33]

» Obama will jump out to a fairly good size lead. McCain will slowly narrow

» the gap until election day. If you look at Obama's proposal's they are

» utterly rediculous and will lead us to further dispair. His past

» associations with far left wack jobs will further test his credibility and

» judgement. The people that will vote for him are misguided and misinformed!

» I think it will be a tight race but McCain will prevail.

Speaking of wack jobs.....

[El Presidente]

» Speaking of wack jobs.....

The real bet was how long a political thread could last before going off the rails :-D

So far so good....but I can see walls buckling :-D

[Chaki]

» I'm not going to voice my leanings as others have because that's not the

» purpose of this thread. The question was does Obama have a chance, and

» the answer is clearly yes.

What Mike says.

Irrespective of my opinion, I would say that Obama can win because he appeals most to young voters. One of the peculiar things in US elections is the high level of abstentions. Fewer people vote in the US than in Europe for instance. I think many of them are young voters who are skeptical about politicians and their ability to make a difference in their lives, or some just don't care. This time around, I think Obama might appeal to them. If they show up in great numbers, Obama might just pull it off.

[jdbrown]

It started going off the rails in my office today and I sat back and laughed!

[rudder]

There is no way in hell Barack is going to win. I'd place money on that.

[IShotAManInReno]

American's vote their emotions. The heart always wins over the head.

In 2000, Gore was a better candidate than Bush by most measures, but people were a little pissed about the whole Lewinski thing and voted to express their anger. Plus, Gore did not have quite as likable of a personality. Bush wins. (Republicans had a cash advantage too.)

In 2008, people are even more pissed at the establishment - for all of the obvious reasons - of which McCain is strongly associated. Along comes a fresh, new, young face with a new message of hope. Add that Obama has a slight edge in the "likability" department. Obama wins on both accounts. (This time, Democrats have the funding advantage.)

If I'm a betting man I'd bet on Obama.

[Wiley]

Obama's has some views which are opposite of mine (important to me), so I can not support him. That being said, I can't help but appreciate his rhetorical skills and the energizing effect he's had. I also really like the idea of a black, well mixed race at least, man running strongly in this country. Considering what backward ***** the world takes us for it's a big boost.

And yes, he's really strong in the US West, aka the Left coast.

[habanablue]

» I'd have a bet that if Obama makes President, he'll be assassinated within

» the year.

Mel I'd echo that...a work colleague mentioned cynically that he might even be lucky to make it to the election...

There are alot of people in America (and around the world) who def. don't want a black man running the joint.

My heart and head say 'yes' - similar to Australia last year with K-Rudd...there may be an overall mood for change.