Cuba status: My opinion.

[El Presidente]

The cigar Divans in Havana have precious little in them of any consequence. The best I came across was some 2002 Partagas Lonsdales which we smoked while in Havana. It appears that everything decent is being exported as a priority. The Divans in general are struggling due to a drop in tourism numbers and the insidious 11% credit card slug. People buy singles and not too many boxes. There are few cigar bargains in Cuba.

Outside the world of cigars, there is a real hope for change under Raul. It is a hope at best...the Cubanos don't really dare to get their hopes up. Life continues to be hard. Prices on the black market for foodstuffs are increasing but there is a noticeable decrease in police presence. Raul has called off the dogs on the general populace while maintianing pressure on dissidents. He is buying time and faith.

Much effort is going into infrastructure paid by Venezuelan petro dollars. There are cranes and construction, paint going onto buildings for the first time in 40 years. There is also the emergence of a vibrant capitalist class who through various means....not necessarily legal....are getting enough cash for cars, restaurants and the niceties of life. These are a minority however..yet noticeable.

Things are better under Raul's stewardship. Not much but better nonetheless. It is enough for now but there is pressure to increase the pace. The task in front of him is insurmountable. Lack of money, lack of skills and 49 years of decay means that he can not meet expectations. He will contine to rule with a tight grip using police and military to crack down when he has to while trying to open up a limited free enterprise culture in order to free up production of basic goods and services.

It is all too little too late. I don't think that he can maintain the balance. The place is ripe for fullscale dissent. It will only take one charismatic opposition leader to galvanize the populace.

Cuba has all the hallmarks of a bloodbath or a quick collapse.

[skindiver]

» The cigar Divans in Havana have precious little in them of any consequence.

» The best I came across was some 2002 Partagas Lonsdales which we smoked

» while in Havana. It appears that everything decent is being exported as a

» priority. The Divans in general are struggling due to a drop in tourism

» numbers and the insidious 11% credit card slug. People buy singles and not

» too many boxes. There are few cigar bargains in Cuba.

» Outside the world of cigars, there is a real hope for change under Raul.

» It is a hope at best...the Cubanos don't really dare to get their hopes

» up. Life continues to be hard. Prices on the black market for foodstuffs

» are increasing but there is a noticeable decrease in police presence. Raul

» has called off the dogs on the general populace while maintianing pressure

» on dissidents. He is buying time and faith.

» Much effort is going into infrastructure paid by Venezuelan petro dollars.

» There are cranes and construction, paint going onto buildings for the first

» time in 40 years. There is also the emergence of a vibrant capitalist class

» who through various means....not necessarily legal....are getting enough

» cash for cars, restaurants and the niceties of life. These are a minority

» however..yet noticeable.

» Things are better under Raul's stewardship. Not much but better

» nonetheless. It is enough for now but there is pressure to increase the

» pace. The task in front of him is insurmountable. Lack of money, lack of

» skills and 49 years of decay means that he can not meet expectations. He

» will contine to rule with a tight grip using police and military to crack

» down when he has to while trying to open up a limited free enterprise

» culture in order to free up production of basic goods and services.

»

» It is all too little too late. I don't think that he can maintain the

» balance. The place is ripe for fullscale dissent. It will only take one

» charismatic opposition leader to galvanize the populace.

»

» Cuba has all the hallmarks of a bloodbath or a quick collapse.

I agree with your impressions, Rob, but the one about decreased police presence. In fact, I thought it was much more present than my last trip in July. Of course, Patrick and I had rented a car and had Cubans with us. We were stopped 3 times on the way back from your party alone, and I was only able to bribe one cop! We came real close to having to make a side trip to a police station our last night there, and the police were pulling up to our house as we left on the final morning.

There appears to be no charismatic opposition leader, or leader of any stripe. To be one seems suicidal at this point in my view.

[Sandman]

Very interesting. Thanks for the insight Rob.

[El Presidente]

Great to hear from you Stan! Loved that final night party

Avenida 26 where we had the party is normally chock full of police stopping all and sundry. It has cost me a small fortune in the past in "no question" payments. This year there were none to be found. Cab drivers have also been shaken down less since December but I have no doubt that Cubans and gringos in the same car would be stopped. I have yet to be in a car with Cubans and not been stopped and I make a passable impersonation of a Cuban ;-)

[shortsqueeze]

» Great to hear from you Stan! Loved that final night party

»

» Avenida 26 where we had the party is normally chock full of police

» stopping all and sundry. It has cost me a small fortune in the past in "no

» question" payments. This year there were none to be found. Cab drivers have

» also been shaken down less since December but I have no doubt that Cubans

» and gringos in the same car would be stopped. I have yet to be in a car

» with Cubans and not been stopped and I make a passable impersonation of a

» Cuban ;-)

Happened to us once leaving Habana Vieja. Have the cops gotten more aggresive and started to bust the chops of the tourists riding with Cubans as well, or still the Cubans only?

[El Presidente]

» Happened to us once leaving Habana Vieja. Have the cops gotten more

» aggresive and started to bust the chops of the tourists riding with Cubans

» as well, or still the Cubans only?

They tend to get shirty when you tell them:

"No i don't have my passport on me. Can't we just all save 30 minutes and you take the 25 CUC fine now?"

[shortsqueeze]

» » Happened to us once leaving Habana Vieja. Have the cops gotten more

» » aggresive and started to bust the chops of the tourists riding with

» Cubans

» » as well, or still the Cubans only?

»

» They tend to get shirty when you tell them:

»

» "No i don't have my passport on me. Can't we just all save 30 minutes and

» you take the 25 CUC fine now?"

30 minutes?!?! You got lucky there. Especially fun when the cop is training a newbie and wants to run everything "by the book":-|

[Guest Warren]

» The place is ripe for fullscale dissent. It will only take one

» charismatic opposition leader to galvanize the populace.

»

» Cuba has all the hallmarks of a bloodbath or a quick collapse.

So when do you start Rob :-D

You say the newly cashed up are buying cars, what cars can they buy ?

Good to have you back mate , see you soon.