The New Habanos?

[Colt45]

We've had some discussions regarding HSA's recent use of aged tobaccos for all cigars.

But this post by Shrink from a recent thread got me thinking on it again:

» It is so encouraging to read of a Sir Winston being this approachable,

» this young. Everybody 'knows' that the SW needs 5-10 years to mature,

» right? Well, the use of aged tobaccos is really changing the name of the

» game.

While I love the idea that we may now be able to purchase Havanas that are much more

approachable, and more easily smokeable when young, with less aging necessary, I am concerned

that perhaps these "New Havanas" will start to peak and go downhill much sooner, which could

pose a problem for those who keep a large stock of cigars, or don't smoke that often.

I also understand that there are many who enjoy the whole process - acquiring, aging, rotating,

and finally smoking.

While I know it's much too early in the game to make any concrete determinations, I'm interested

to know what other members might think.

[Jimmy2]

I hate aging cigars the sooner i can smoke them the better.

I smoke 3 to 5 a day so i wont have a problem.

[yossie]

» I smoke 3 to 5 a day so i wont have a problem.

Are you going to become a prime minister of UK? lol

I smoke 3 stick cigars a day at most.

[shrink]

Colt, I think that you briefly summarized the concerns that many have about the "New Habanos":

1. Although many are more approachable young, there is concern that they will 'peak' early and go downhill sooner than cigars rolled before 2006.

Answer: We cann't know for sure how these cigars will age over the long haul, until a few years pass. However, common sense would dictate that since the fillers are already aged 2-3 years, they should follow an 'aging curve' similar to the older cigars, only the curve is 'moved up' two to three years. I DO KNOW how my early 2006 smokes have aged over the past year and one half. Many are smoking as if they are 2-4 years old, with the kind of smoothness, depth, balance and harmony that I enjoy in a moderately aged cigar. There's certainly nothing wrong with that.

On the other hand, several early 2006's (including my RASS, JL2, and RyJ Short Churchills) have gone into something of a 'sick period', and aren't as well as they were a year ago. I am assuming that they will 'come around' in time, but only time will tell.

2. The aficianado will miss out on the time honored, and challenging, practice of selecting, aging, and rotating boxes of cigars.

Answer: I think that there is something to this argument, since I believe that the "New Habanos" tends to level the playing field, and places the newer collector more on a par with the more established smoker. It certainly makes it easier for the 'newbie' to determine what's smoking well now, how the cigar is likely to taste over the 'short run', and obviously, to enjoy vitolas that the 'old timers' had to age for years before smoking.

It is important to stress that not ALL of what I call 'the class of 2006' are smoking like 2-3 year old cigars. Some are still quite 'raw' and tannic, or otherwise need some serious time to mature and 'ripen'. Using Bolivars as an example: While the 2006 Royal Coronas and Coronas Extra are approachable NOW, and are smoking pretty damned well, the Inmensas and Coronas Gigantes with almost identical box age, simply aren't ready. Go figure.

[bassman]

Hmm... My 06 BRCs are still quite tannic, so i'm greatly enjoying FEB 05s instead. Perhaps the new philosophy should be smoke the approachable 06s first & save the 02s & 03s for further aging.

[Colt45]

» I hate aging cigars the sooner i can smoke them the better.

»

This brings up another angle - $$$. I tend to doubt that Habanos S.A, out of the goodness

of their hearts, will be dropping prices any time soon. If possible, it might be a good idea

to stock up. But maybe now, we don't buy as much, thinking that perhaps they'll age sooner

than we'll smoke them. (this is just a general thought, as is the whole thread, for conversation purposes)

Shrink, I agree that not every '06 / '07 cigar will smoke the same way, and that the aging curve,

more than likely, will be different from cigar to cigar. I'll be interested to see how this all pans out.

Bassman, interesting thought, but tough to stay away from '02 / '03 - unless you've got older than that :-)

[Claudius]

» I am concerned

» that perhaps these "New Havanas" will start to peak and go downhill much

» sooner

I'm with shrink on this one: the use of longer "aged" tobacco for certain (parts of) cigars makes them approachable about 2 years earlier. That's good for people like Jimmy, but doesnt change much in the big scheme of things.

[Claudius]

» This brings up another angle - $$$. I tend to doubt that Habanos S.A, out of the goodness of their hearts,

» will be dropping prices any time soon. If possible, it might be a good idea to stock up.

I dont think it's a bad time to stock up as current production quality is excellent, but I dont think it's necessarily a good time price-wise. Habanos SA is facing a MAJOR thread currently: the enforcing of smoking bans in restaurants and bars worldwide, mainly in Europe this year. It is now forbidden to smoke in restaurants and bars in Germany (bans enforced as we speak, some in Sept this year, some in January 2008, depending on the state). From January 2008, it will also be forbidden to smoke in restaurants, bars, discoteques and casinos in France! These are Habanos SA's 2nd and 3rd or 3rd and 4th markets! Behavioural changes and job losses (like Ireland and Italy etc.) are to be expected and will most probably result in lower sales. Do you think they will increase prices to discourage people further? Or drop prices to encourage them / keep their customers?

The only thing I can see increase is prices for ULTRA-limited stuff like numbered ERs (like is already happening) or Estuches (ltd humis).

[El Presidente]

Interesting thread.

The approachability of late 05/06 and 07 cigars in my opinion is merely the result of HSA planning from 2002 in which they made the decision to get back to using aged filler tobacco. It took some time to achieve and the stark contrast is not suprising given the bizarre decision of 1998/1999/2000 which saw a massive spike in production accompanied by a masive downturn on quality. The decisions of that time really limited the amount aged quality tobacco available for use.

The Cuban cigar industry prior to the injection of funds by Altadis and 50% purchase of Habanos s.a was in dissaray. The Industry was seen by the Government as a cash cow and every cent was sucked from it with little re-investment. Some of the tobacco strains of the time introduced were high yielding but poor to the taste. Construction was abysmal with new rollers being brought on line in their thousands while the training period slashed in half.

Fast forward to the past 18 months-2 years. I don't think we are seeing a revolution but rather a revearsal to pre 1998. The Tobacco strains have changed and that in itself has led to fuller bodied cigars not seen since 1996. Proper aging, better and more controlled drying, fermentation and storage (due to the introduction of not previously avaolable technology) has helped no end. The factory managers now take pride in their production and quality. One only has to spend time at H. Upmann factory and with the manager to see the pride. Sure, it is not all rosy with plenty of mistakes still being made. Much of this is still to do with the "socialist system" which is so entrenched within factories but it is changing.

I cannot see why todays cigars will not age well. Sure not all of them. Our members reviews are still the mirror to witness inconsistency. However it is imroving.

On the issue of price it will be interesting to see the sales figures for Habanos s.a over the coming two years. In 2006 they had an 8% increase (from memory) in revenue. In countries where draconian laws have come into effect and been so for some time, cigar sales are back to or have surpassed the pre tobacco law levels.

The average revenue per cigar has increased to Habanos s.a. No doubt this is a result of the introduction and success of Edicion Limitada, Regional Releases and the release of new premium cigars accompanied by premiums in 3 packs/ 10 and 12 count boxes, new premium tubes and the unfortunate culling of slow selling cigars from long established Marques.

I am sure if Revenue/sales begins to fall for HSA they will see the problem as a lack of access by their market to enjoy a cigar. I don't see how a price drop will correct this situation. I can see HSA producing smaller 30-45 minute formats to assist its core clientelle in finding the opportuinity to "have" a cigar.

Intersting times indeed.

[Colt45]

» I dont think it's a bad time to stock up as current production quality is

» excellent, but I dont think it's necessarily a good time price-wise.

»

Claudius, interesting aspect, and in some ways, I hope you are correct :-)

Rob, as always, your insight in these matters is invaluable.

[Mike33]

Brilliant post as always Rob!!

[Claudius]

» I am sure if Revenue/sales begins to fall for HSA they will see the

» problem as a lack of access by their market to enjoy a cigar. I don't see

» how a price drop will correct this situation. I can see HSA producing

» smaller 30-45 minute formats to assist its core clientelle in finding the

» opportuinity to "have" a cigar.

Obviously, lowering the price of a cigar is not going to reverse a smoking ban in France or Germany, but wouldnt producing more smaller cigars for people to "have a small cigar outside" equate to having the larger vitolas sitting on the shelves if you dont lower production for the larger ones? Then what would the importer do with the cigars after x years, and more importantly, how will this affect his future purchasing and production and / or pricing?

[jdbrown]

I have been hearing for some time now that HSA may look to add more smaller format's...Mike..shoot me an email sometime as you are only 15 minutes down the road!

[El Presidente]

» Obviously, lowering the price of a cigar is not going to reverse a smoking

» ban in France or Germany, but wouldnt producing more smaller cigars for

» people to "have a small cigar outside" equate to having the larger vitolas

» sitting on the shelves if you dont lower production for the larger ones?

» Then what would the importer do with the cigars after x years, and more

» importantly, how will this affect his future purchasing and production and

» / or pricing?

I agree with you in part Claudius. Habanos s.a does not like to cull the largest format cigar in any Marque so we will not see them disappear. They will simply reduce production to meet demand while developing to the market a Premium range of smaller cigars. I personally would love to see a Connie No 3 sized cigar in say Por Larranaga, Sancho Panza or Bolivar. However simply releasing a smaller sized premium cigar is no panacea. The Le Hoyo range features several smaller format cigars and they do not sell readily. I think packaging and exceptional blends will need to be part of the mix. Think along the lines of Trinidad Reyes 12 packs but for a Por Larranaga Connie 3.

[Colt45]

» I personally would love to see a Connie No 3 sized cigar in say ........or Bolivar.

»

Oh, now you're talking!!

[Stalebread]

» . . . Behavioural changes and job

» losses (like Ireland and Italy etc.) are to be expected and will most

» probably result in lower sales. . .

This is a very interesting thread with many good points.

Some recent articles about the sales of luxury goods (high end cars, perfumes, watches, etc. ) seem to indicate that (younger) consumers pick their product and are willing to spend big dollars (or euros) on, say, a Porsche, but then be more thrifty in other areas such as clothing, dining out, housing, etc. I have no idea if this behavior might carry over in the sales of premium cigars.

[Mel]

Nice thread even if it was started by Colt.

I liike to smoke cigars so I like the younger cigars that smoke well. I only see problems for the high minded collector that has spent years and tons of $s to amass a collection that is better than the new little guys. Could he be threatend by the new cigars?

Colt if you have purchased to many cigars to smoke before they go bad send me a few cabs.:-D

[shrink]

I personally would love to see a Connie No 3 sized cigar in say Por Larranaga, Sancho Panza or Bolivar.

Rob, can you explain this in a bit more detail?

I am very fond of the Party Connie #3, but not just because of it's size. As you well know, this is a 'kick-ass' smoke when young, with an intense profile, lots of peppery spice, citrus, and untamed complexity. I can really enjoy this profile in the smaller format, because the cigar dies before I do. There is no other small format Partagas that has this profile.

Now, when I consider Por Larranaga, or Sancho Panza, how would you change the blend profile? If the PL Connie #3 was merely a smaller version of the PC, what would be the point?

Talking Bolivar, the first comparison that comes to mind would be the Coronas Junior, which is an outstanding small format smoke in it's own right. Would you have the Boli Connie #3 blended with even more ligero? Whoooooa, Nelly. That would be a spicy li'l SOB.

[Claudius]

» I personally would love to see a Connie

» No 3 sized cigar in say Por Larranaga, Sancho Panza or Bolivar. However

» simply releasing a smaller sized premium cigar is no panacea. The Le Hoyo

» range features several smaller format cigars and they do not sell readily.

» I think packaging and exceptional blends will need to be part of the mix.

» Think along the lines of Trinidad Reyes 12 packs but for a Por Larranaga

» Connie 3.

A carlota in Por Larranaga or Bolivar would be fantastic! I think the format suits the PL brand especially well, not sure why. Bolivar or Ramon Allones seem very good alternatives as well. Not fond of the SP profile, though. I've never liked the Hoyo profile, so low sales seem normal to me. :-D Excepting the new Epicure No.2, which are very rich and flavourful (like you explained in your review of a recent cab a few days ago).

As far as the packaging is concerned, I think Habanos have made vast improvements with the new chocolate Cohiba boxes (the ones they started having for the Pyramides EL and now the Maduro 5) and all the new tubos. The most important is always how a cigar smokes, but good packaging is always better than a SBN.

[El Presidente]

Shrink

I think that a PL carlotta could be an intense caramel stick ideal as a brief after lunch or after dinner cigar. Different from the PC in that it would be a step up in body and more focused/crystallised in flavour definition.

Same in a Boli Carlotta. Full bodied, earthy, leather with some nice pepper spice.

It would be no use rolling out smaller cigars unless they ADD to the Marque by carrying the core characteristics but evolving or exploring another dimension.