2025 Cuban cigar availability predictions

[naim_yazbeck]

 

First, I want to wish a Happy new year for everyone. Given how the year ended, do you expect better availability for 2025?

In the Middle East, it seems there is not much optimism. The issue remains low supply- no light at the end of tunnel there it seems - but also everyone stocking every Cuban cigar they find (assuming they can afford), so demand here will remain high and also prices!!. Not sure what you see in your market and of course “the presidente” will have info we don't have!

 

 

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[chris12381]

"Cuba" and "optimism" are two words that I don't use together. 

Over a million people left Cuba, 10% of the population since between 2022-2023.  Those are official numbers from Cuba, and it doesn't include people who left in 2021 nor the ongoing exodus after 2023.  How many of those had years of experience rolling, farming, fermenting, sorting and aging tobacco?  My guess is quite a few and it will take years to retrain new people to do those jobs.  

How did drought and storms affect the past few years crops? Not well. 

How has the ongoing issues with supplying fuel and electricity going to affect harvest, transport and production? Not positively. 

I'm incredibly pessimistic on the supply side which has the predictable affect on demand and price. 

I could be totally wrong though...

[El Presidente]

There are strategic games being played in terms of supply to different regions. 

Supply was on the increase in final quarter 2024. 

First quarter 2025 looks solid.  Ater that, who knows. The Cuba dramas of 3rd and 4th quarters 2024 will likely be felt at some stage. 

 

[ha_banos]

I was fully expecting Cuba to have had a coup by now. I thought they would not have recovered the electricity situation at all. Would seem they have found an oil lifeline? Full of twists and turns.

[ATGroom]

2021/22 season was a write-off due to COVID restrictions, seasonal labour couldn't visit the farms. They also lost some stored leaf in warehouse fires around this time.
2022/23 season was a write-off due to Hurricane Ian.
2023/24 season was a write-off due to lack of barns that had been flattened during Ian and not rebuilt, plus lack of fuel etc etc

Cigar production during all these years has been way down from what it was pre-2020 which will have helped with the leaf shortage so far, but sooner or later it's going to come to a head.

[Hoepssa]

Supply isn't a problem for members who stick to our host, but crisis might affected the quality/taste of these cc. Cuba is having bigger problems than Habanos.

[El Presidente]

On 1/6/2025 at 6:35 AM, El Presidente said:

First quarter 2025 looks solid.  Ater that, who knows. The Cuba dramas of 3rd and 4th quarters 2024 will likely be felt at some stage. 

I will have to revise that statement after phone calls with supplier yesterday. 

It looks like supply is a little dicier than expected in December. 

Things change quickly in the world of Habanos 

[Puros Y Vino]

2 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I will have to revise that statement after phonecalls with supplier yesterday. 

It looks like supply is a little dicier than expected in December. 

Things change quickly in the world of Habanos 

So..supply is down.

Demand is stagnating.

So..Habanos will raise prices right?  😁

[El Presidente]

29 minutes ago, Puros Y Vino said:

So..supply is down.

Demand is stagnating.

So..Habanos will raise prices right?  😁

I was at meetings in Europe in September/October and made the statement that 2025 would be a "sliding doors" moment for Habanos SA. 

It will be intriguing to watch what evolves throughout 2025 

 

[gormag38]

22 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I was at meetings in Europe in September/October and made the statement that 2025 would be a "sliding doors" moment for Habanos SA. 

It will be intriguing to watch what evolves throughout 2025 

I could certainly see that being the case as well (with the little information I've gathered). Although I guess it's also important to note that many folks have thought that was going to be the case in the last year or two and it hasn't come to fruition. I wonder if this year will be any different? To me the biggest difference this coming year from years past is that it does seem that demand has certainly stagnated. (Again at least to my, uninformed, eyes.) 

[SCgarman]

23 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

So..supply is down.

Demand is stagnating.

So..Habanos will raise prices right?  😁

Rolex basically just did the same under similar circumstances. Some solid gold pieces up 14%. All the rich are crying like babies.🤣