Ford2112 Posted December 9 Posted December 9 https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5977118/2024/12/08/sf-giants-willy-adames-signing-analysis/ This dude better be hitting more than .250 with that much coin involved. Still I think it's the smart move.
JohnS Posted December 9 Posted December 9 Mets, Soto agree to record-breaking 15-yr, $765M deal (sources) DALLAS -- Since Steve Cohen purchased the Mets in 2020, he has worked to make the franchise the envy of Major League Baseball -- a team that can not only be competitive on the field, but also for all the most significant players in the sport. Sunday, for the first time, Cohen proved his ability to do so. The Mets are in agreement on a record 15-year, $765 million contract with Juan Soto, one of the premier players in the half-century history of free agency. Coming off a season in which they fell two wins short of reaching the World Series, Soto gives them bold-faced credibility as contenders. Soto's deal includes no deferrals, one opt-out clause (after the 2029 season) and a $75 million signing bonus, a source told MLB.com's Mark Feinsand. The Mets' highest offer passed that of the Yankees, who rode Soto's bat to the World Series in 2024 and offered him $760 million over 16 years, per a source. The average annual value of the Mets' deal ($51 million) topped their crosstown rivals' average annual value ($47.5 million) by $3.5 million. So when will the Mets and Yankees renew their rivalry in 2025, with Soto front and center? Their next matchup will be on Friday night, May 16, in the Bronx. The Mets, who were never serious contenders to land Shohei Ohtani last offseason because of Ohtani’s personal preferences, pursued Soto with vigor from the start. They had two primary things to offer: Cohen’s seemingly bottomless well of money, plus his willingness to spend it -- not just on Soto, but on additional players to ensure a competitive roster for years to come. Cohen, who has produced record payrolls during his time as owner, has a stated goal of winning a World Series as soon as possible. To that end, he has no appetite to stop spending until he achieves it. Soto’s contract is by far the largest the Mets have ever given out, more than doubling Francisco Lindor’s 10-year, $341 million pact. It’s the largest contract in Major League history. In New York, Soto figures to play right field, pushing Tyrone Taylor to center, with Brandon Nimmo in left. Soto can also slot in the top third of the Mets’ lineup along with Lindor and Nimmo. It remains to be seen if the Mets will now look to bring back Pete Alonso in free agency. Their primary roster concern is in the rotation, where the Mets must add to a mix currently led by Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Frankie Montas. Soto was unquestionably the best player available in free agency this winter -- not only because of what he accomplished in 2024 with the Yankees, but his first seven MLB seasons have put him on the fast track to the Hall of Fame. After he was traded from San Diego to New York last December, Soto hit a career-best 41 home runs with the Bronx Bombers in 2024. He also established single-season career highs in runs scored (128), extra-base hits (76) and bWAR (7.9). Those numbers respectively ranked first, fifth and fifth in the American League. Soto was equally impressive in the postseason, batting .327 with a 1.102 OPS over 64 plate appearances. He belted four homers during the playoffs, including a go-ahead three-run dinger in the 10th inning of ALCS Game 5 vs. the Guardians that propelled the Yankees to their first pennant in 15 years. But well before his most recent heroics, the 26-year-old Soto had already established himself as one of the most gifted hitters in baseball history. In more than 4,000 career plate appearances, he owns a .285/.421/.532 slash line. His on-base percentage is the best among active Major Leaguers. His 160 career OPS+ ranks eighth in MLB history among players through their age-25 season (minimum 3,000 PA). The seven names in front of Soto are either inducted in Cooperstown or on their way toward future enshrinement: Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout, Jimmie Foxx, Albert Pujols, Tris Speaker and Rogers Hornsby. Only Mantle and Foxx had a better career OBP than Soto at that age. Soto began his pro career with the Nationals, who signed him as an international free agent in 2015. Three years later -- and after playing a total of eight games above High-A -- the 19-year-old Soto was called up to the Majors. He began that season as MLB Pipeline’s No. 29 prospect in baseball. He closed it with 22 home runs and a .923 OPS over 494 plate appearances. That remains the best single-season OPS by a teenager in MLB history (min. 400 PA). The lefty-hitting wunderkind bashed 34 home runs in 2019 -- the most dingers by a 20-year-old in the National League since Frank Robinson’s 38 homers in 1956 -- but his most impactful long balls came during the World Series. Soto went deep three times in the '19 Fall Classic, including a majestic go-ahead homer off Astros ace Justin Verlander in Game 6. Soto picked up two more hits in Game 7 en route to the franchise’s first championship. Soto bested all players in on-base percentage (.490) and slugging percentage (.695) during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He took home the first of his five Silver Slugger Awards at the end of the year. After another terrific campaign in 2021 -- a .999 OPS and an NL-best 7.1 bWAR -- Soto was sent to the Padres prior to the 2022 Trade Deadline in a swap that netted the rebuilding Nats a bevy of highly ranked prospects. Soto collected 83 extra-base hits in 750 at-bats with San Diego before he found himself on the move again last winter. Defensively, Soto is well below average in the outfield; he has compiled minus-30 outs above average since the start of 2022, the second-lowest total from any qualifier outfielder. But Soto’s shortcomings with the glove are far surpassed by his elite skills with the bat. Source: https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-agrees-to-contract-with-mets-sources
JohnS Posted December 9 Posted December 9 And now that the Soto question has been answered this offseason, I think we'll see a lot of transactions starting to happen at the Winter Meetings starting this week, as each team now goes to their 'Plan B'. 1
JohnS Posted December 9 Posted December 9 Well yeah, it makes a nice change from hearing how the Dodgers were ruining baseball. But that was last week's news! 😂 1
Ford2112 Posted December 9 Posted December 9 The Mets will spend 2 billion and then rebuild 2 years later! 3
MoeFOH Posted December 9 Author Posted December 9 At least Soto didn't go back to the Yankees and is out of the AL East. The closeness of the top two offers was the most surprising thing. I expected a much bigger gap to the top bid. Seems a double kick in the nuts to the Yankees. I'm fine with that. Scant consolation as a Sox fan, but we were realistically a very slim chance of landing him anyway. And I shouldn't complain, there's always the other piece of wonderful consolation in our off-season so far: signing Aroldis Chapman, an age 37 pitcher with an atrocious walk rate who everyone hates due to a domestic violence history and disciplinary issues. Nice work, head office. 1
MoeFOH Posted December 12 Author Posted December 12 Red Sox knit together deal for Garret Crochet (see what I did there ) for 4 prospects. Love this deal. Only two years of control but it's a big need "now" play. Anyhow, thank god something happened, as the FA board was lightening up a helluva rate there for a minute. 1
JohnS Posted Friday at 09:03 PM Posted Friday at 09:03 PM The news that first baseman Christian Walker is headed to the Houston Astros on a 3-year $US60 million deal all but certainly means that Alex Bregman will not return (as Isaac Paredes is locked in at third base for 2025). Even though Walker is 34 years of age, it seems nowadays that first basemen don't make big deals like they used to. Heading into Christmas/New Year we still have 14 of the top 25 Free Agents still available. MLB Rumors: Trade, Free-Agent Market Will 'Pick Up' After New Year's, Says Evaluator Adam Wells - December 21, 2024 Harry How/Getty Images Amid a flurry of activity before and during the winter meetings, MLB's free-agent and trade markets have calmed down a little bit leading up to the holidays. One talent evaluator told ESPN's Buster Olney they anticipate things will "pick up again after New Year's." Most of the initial moves were being held up until Juan Soto decided where he was going to sign, though Willy Adames (San Francisco Giants) and Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) got their agreements done early. Soto eventually made his decision to join the New York Mets on a 15-year, $765 million contract on Dec. 8. Notable moves that have made since then include the New York Yankees signing Max Fried and trading for Cody Bellinger and Devin Williams; Garrett Crochet being dealt to the Boston Red Sox; and Kyle Tucker going from the Houston Astros to the Chicago Cubs. The Astros made another big move on Friday by agreeing to a three-year, $60 million contract with Christian Walker, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale. Even with all of that activity, there are still 14 players available who were ranked among MLB.com's top 25 free agents. The group includes Corbin Burnes, Rōki Sasaki, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and Anthony Santander. Sasaki is the only player on a timeline because of the posting system he only has 45 days to agree to a contract, otherwise he will be sent back to the Chiba Lotte Marines in 2025. Since he is classified as part of the 2025 international free agent class, his signing window doesn't officially open until Jan. 15 and the 45-day deadline from when he was posted closes on Jan. 23. No one is concerned about Sasaki getting a deal done with an MLB club. Alonso could be the free agent from this class whose wait to get a deal done takes longer than anticipated. His camp was reportedly seeking a $200 million contract in free agency during the 2024 season. There have already been rumblings that teams are "hesitant" to give Alonso a long-term deal as his performance has dipped over the past two seasons. Recent history also hasn't been kind to power-first first basemen with high strikeout rates and a bad defensive profile. Santander could also be another player whose market is slow to develop. He's got tremendous pop with 105 homers over the past three seasons, but he has a .307 career on-base percentage in 746 games. There's still a lot to be settled this offseason for MLB clubs, but it might take a couple of more weeks before we start to see where the chips are going to fall. Source: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10147998-mlb-rumors-trade-free-agent-market-will-pick-up-after-new-years-says-evaluator
Ford2112 Posted Saturday at 12:17 AM Posted Saturday at 12:17 AM If the Giants fail to lock up Corbin Burnes I will be disappointed.
KCCubano Posted Saturday at 03:14 AM Posted Saturday at 03:14 AM Royals traded for Jonathan India. We were able to keep our top three starting pitchers which surprised me. They are still looking for some bullpen help and maybe a 3rd basemen.
JohnS Posted 21 hours ago Posted 21 hours ago On 12/21/2024 at 11:17 AM, Ford2112 said: If the Giants fail to lock up Corbin Burnes I will be disappointed. He is currently favoured to land at the Giants. https://www.mlb.com/news/corbin-burnes-rumors 1
JohnS Posted 20 hours ago Posted 20 hours ago Well, there's been a 'hive' of activity prior to Christmas in this year's off-season Hot Stove. Below is Jim Bowden's mailbag at the New York Times' The Athletic, offering his points of view on this activity... (P.S. The 'John S' asking the question about the Cincinnati Reds is definitely not me. It's another 'John S'! 😂) MLB Hot Stove mailbag: Recruiting Sasaki, landing Burnes, post-Soto Yankees, and trade talk By Jim Bowden With trades and signings coming fast and furious, it’s a good time for another reader mailbag on the MLB offseason. Here are my answers to more than 25 questions from subscribers. Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length. Juan Soto is a great player, but given all the moves the Yankees have made since he signed with the Mets, are they actually a better team without him and with these new players instead? — James T. I think one could argue they are a better team — at least for the regular season. Max Fried is a top-of-the-rotation starter, Devin Williams is an impact closer, and Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt combined could provide similar home run power to Soto. The Yankees’ outfield defense will be better with Aaron Judge moving back to right field and Bellinger taking over in center field. So … better rotation, better bullpen and better defense. That said, I’d rather have Soto for the postseason because of how special his bat is and how good he is in big moments. Soto and Judge together were like Mantle and Maris. Now, the Yankees will just have to win in different ways without him. Certainly, their pitching and defense are much better than last season following this flurry of moves. How might a front office go about recruiting Sasaki when money isn’t really the issue? Who do they bring in? Who is involved in the prep? What goes into it? — Debra B. When recruiting Sasaki, here some important factors that teams will prioritize: • The major-league team’s chances of winning in the short- and long-term • Strength of the farm system for promoting players and/or acquiring players via trades • Financial resources to be competitive at all levels • The pitching room, including the veteran pitchers on their staffs, as well as the pitching coaches that he’d work with; also the plan they have in place for him to get him better right away • The analytics and technology the organization will make available to maximize his talents • Geography — selling the home city, from its culture to restaurants to communities to the ballpark to the club’s spring training home • The translators and support staff the team will provide to help him on and off the field • Getting a few of the team leaders to attend a recruiting meeting with the owner, general manager, manager and pitching coaches • Demonstrating how the organization functions as a family and how they’ll take care of his family What are you hearing on Corbin Burnes? Where do you think he’ll end up? — Steven C. The most likely landing spots for Burnes are the Blue Jays or Giants, with the Red Sox and Orioles still possible, and I think he’ll sign with whoever offers the most years and dollars. Burnes will get more years and dollars than Fried (eight years, $218 million) and probably won’t sign until after Sasaki picks his team, which could remove one of the teams that’s pursuing Burnes from the equation. There’s been a lot of speculation about what the Phillies are asking for in exchange for Alec Bohm. In your opinion, what would a realistic return be for him? — Ben C. Bohm is coming off a 3.0-bWAR season in which he batted .280/.332/.448 with 15 home runs and a 117 OPS+. I think that type of performance is what you can expect going forward with perhaps a tad more home run potential. Bohm has two more years of team control. If the Phillies were to trade him, I think that equates to a No. 3-type starter or a high-leverage reliever or a pair of solid prospects in the 7 to 15 range from an organization’s pool. What do you think of the Phillies signing of Max Kepler? — Owen S. I’m not sure I like the fit. He’s an above-average defender in right field, where he’s been more of a platoon player. He has a career slash line of .237/.318/.429 over 10 years with the Twins. You have to mix-and-match him against the opposing starting pitchers (career .655 OPS versus lefties). The Phillies plan to play him in left field, a position he’s never played in the majors. I thought $10 million was a steep price, especially after non-tendering Austin Hays, who was projected to make $6.4 million via arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors. I would still like to see the Philadelphia make a trade with the White Sox for Luis Robert Jr. and go with an outfield of Nick Castellanos in right field, Robert in center and Brandon Marsh in left, then use Kepler and Johan Rojas as extra outfielders/plus defenders in right (Kepler) and center and left field (Rojas). (Editor’s note: The following question was asked before the Mets agreed to a three-year deal with Sean Manaea.) Despite having limitless resources, the Mets under David Stearns seem to prefer reclamation projects over established aces for starting pitching, highlighting their investments in player development. Of the pitchers they’ve signed, who is the best candidate to follow in Manaea and Luis Severino’s footsteps and have a strong bounce-back season? — Samuel R. I’ll go with Frankie Montas as I like what I saw from him down the stretch last season. If he can stay healthy and pitch like he did several years ago with the Athletics, he could be a significant contributor for the Mets next year. I’d be a bit concerned about Clay Holmes as a starter because he really doesn’t have a third pitch and enough to get lefties out in a starting role. However, I’m never going to bet against Stearns. Re-signing Manaea was imperative. Last season, he impressed after lowering his arm angle and adjusting his arsenal and sequencing; there is no reason to think he can’t repeat his 2024 performance. I thought the three-year, $75 million deal, which is similar to what the Rangers paid Nathan Eovaldi, was a shrewd, market contract. Now the Mets can concentrate on bringing back Pete Alonso as their final major move of the offseason. His market has shrunk, which should help them get a deal done sooner rather than later. Cardinals fan here. I know that the (potential) return in a trade of Arenado will be limited, but what’s the best-case scenario for St. Louis? — Jeremy K. Addition by subtraction has to be the goal to open up third base for Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker — whichever one the Cardinals view as the best long-term play there. Financially, whatever they can get the other team to absorb would be huge, so really any type of prospect return would make sense. The Athletic’s Katie Woo and Chandler Rome reported that Arenado, who has a no-trade clause, nixed a possible deal with the Astros that, if approved, would have seen St. Louis pay roughly $5 million for each of the three years remaining on his contract with Houston footing the rest of the bill (approximately $45 million). The Cardinals might have to keep Arenado for the first half of the season and hope he plays better, then try to get more for him in a trade in July. Do the Blue Jays “sell” Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette if they fail to sign one of the top 10 remaining free agents? What would the return look like considering they’re one-year rentals? — Jack H. The Blue Jays have really misplayed their hand with Guerrero and Bichette; they should have either extended them two years ago or traded them by this point. Now they’re both one-year rentals, as you point out, with diminished trade value. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently reported that the Jays are in talks with Guerrero about a long-term extension and fielding interest for Bichette, so we’ll see if either of those avenues lead anywhere. If the Blue Jays were to trade Guerrero, I don’t think they’d get a strong return in line with what the Padres received for Soto from the Yankees a year ago, but they could still land a top-three prospect and a top-10 prospect for the slugger, I would guess, while a Bichette trade could bring back two top-10 prospects. What are the Blue Jays waiting for? They need relievers, a right-handed power bat and a starter to knock Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen. I am a huge fan of Bregman as the bat and Burnes as the pitcher. It would make everything fit so nicely. — Josh The Blue Jays’ best moves right now would be to sign Anthony Santander and Alex Bregman, or Bregman and Burnes, or Santander and Burnes, then just try to contend this year and hope it helps them re-sign Bichette and Guerrero, even if that’s next offseason on the open market. Their farm system can’t help much in the short term and they have little to trade so playing checkbook baseball is the only way out of this mess. Hi, Jim. Best guess where Santander and Bregman will sign? — Rick G. It’s just a guess, but I’ll go with the Blue Jays for Santander and the Red Sox for Bregman. Do you expect Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves to make any significant moves this winter? — No name listed I don’t see the Braves making any huge moves, although they would like to improve their rotation after losing both Max Fried and Charlie Morton to free agency. (It’s unclear where the 41-year-old Morton will land.) In addition, Anthopoulos is always looking to add bullpen depth. Who’s driving the low-budget, ultra-conservative plan for the Tigers? Is the owner hesitant to spend or is (the front office) afraid to take any risks when it comes to trades involving prospects? This offseason has been incredibly disappointing for a team that finished strong with arguably the best pitcher on the planet. — Dave. H. I think you have to give it time. The Tigers have been pursuing Bregman and Jack Flaherty, among others, and several top free agents haven’t signed yet. The market is still robust. Remember, it’s not important when you make moves; it’s just important that you do make moves. Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti (said) the Andrés Giménez trade may allow them to reinvest some of that money in the roster. Do you expect them to do that? If so, will it be more likely through an external addition or extending someone currently on the roster like Steven Kwan or Tanner Bibee? — Kyle F. Trading Giménez gave the Guardians some financial flexibility, which they used in the short term to re-sign Shane Bieber and bring back Carlos Santana for a third stint with the club. The most important savings are in future years. The Guardians have had a solid offseason so far with trade for Luis Ortiz and the addition of Bieber. They traded away the big bat of Josh Naylor, who is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $12 million in arbitration and will be eligible for free agency after next season. I still think they could use an upgrade in right field with 25-30 home run power. The Rays need another outfield bat and I would love another catcher (a near-ready prospect, like one from the Dodgers’ stable). What do you think the Rays do the rest of the offseason? — Gatorgolfer2436 The Rays should target Dodgers prospect Dalton Rushing, but I don’t see how they would match up with Los Angeles in that type of deal. I don’t see any needle-moving moves for Tampa Bay the rest of this offseason. I think they’re more focused on developing the players on their roster than adding to it. Why did Reds give up their best 2024 reliever for a backup catcher? — John S. Reds manager Terry Francona told me at the Winter Meetings that it was imperative to get another catcher not just to back up Tyler Stephenson, but also who could start if he’s injured. Francona wanted another catcher who would be excellent at calling a game and pitch framing — Jose Trevino, whom they acquired from the Yankees for reliever Fernando Cruz and catcher Alex Jackson, checks those boxes. Losing Cruz was a steep price to pay; his nasty split-finger will be missed. But you have to give up something to get something and to me it looked like a fair deal for both sides. It’s all fun and games this time of the year for the big-swinging, deep-pocketed clubs, but (not so much) for those of us rooting for a team like the Twins (with a tight payroll). What could the Twins realistically get back for trading say, Chris Paddack ($7.5 million salary in 2025) or Christian Vázquez ($10 million), guys who would unload some money? Minimal prospects or a bucket of baseballs? — Thomas J. Minimal prospects, which is better than a bucket of baseballs, which right now is valued at $209.95. What are your thoughts on the Orioles leaning on what they have (in the rotation and instead) focusing on bolstering the pen? Perhaps a trade of Ryan Mountcastle and Heston Kjerstad for Mason Miller? That would allow for Félix Bautista (returning from Tommy John surgery) to slowly ramp up throughout the season, then Miller could transition to a starting role in 2026? — Amos H. The Athletics have zero interest in trading Miller, but I would love that trade idea from the Orioles’ vantage point. I’d still like to see them bring back Burnes or try to make a trade for one of the Mariners’ starting pitchers. The Mariners should ask Toronto what it would take to get Bichette to come over and play second base for them. I think as long as Bichette is healthy, he will have no problem bouncing back to the great hitter he was in 2021-23. What do you think it would take on Seattle’s end to make that trade for Bichette? — Ignorantso B. The Mariners are willing to trade some of their top prospects for a major-league-ready first- or third-base bat, so Toronto might be able to acquire either Colt Emerson, 19, or Cole Young, 21, for Bichette, which they should consider given that he’s under contract for only one more year. Bichette would play third base for Seattle. Who’s the player we’re not talking about now but will be the big wow story (e.g., Brent Rooker, Jurickson Profar, Shota Imanaga, Seth Lugo, etc.) at the All-Star break? — Jake M. The wow story around the 2025 All-Star break will be the Blue Jays trading Vlad Jr. Everyone will look at the light return and wonder why they didn’t do it two years earlier when they would have landed a game-changing return, like the Nationals did when they dealt Soto to the Padres in 2022. What would it take for the Pirates to acquire Wilyer Abreu? Would the Red Sox have any interest in catcher/outfielder Henry Davis? Include righty Braxton Ashcraft to sweeten the deal? — George M. If you want Abreu, then the Red Sox would want Jared Jones in return — and that’s not happening. However, how about Abreu to the Pirates for righty Bubba Chandler? Trade proposal: Royals trade RHP Carlos Hernández to the Dodgers for outfielder James Outman. K.C. gets a left-handed bat and defensive upgrade, while Dodgers land a hard-throwing reliever with a few years of control. Who says no? — Booten C. That’s a fair trade in theory, but I think the Royals say no because they have similar outfielders and need to retain the relievers they have and try to add to the pen, not subtract. What would it take for the Cubs to acquire Mason Miller from the Athletics? — William “Bill” J. Again, the Athletics are not trading Miller. But a package of right-hander Cade Horton, outfielder Owen Caissie and shortstop Derniche Valdez would certainly make them pause and consider it. Silence is not golden for a free agent like Anthony Rizzo. Any buzz on him? — Michael G. Rizzo is 35 years old and batted .228 last season with an 81 OPS+. Age and decline have arrived. However, he’s a strong clubhouse presence and if he’ll accept a backup role, he might be able to hook on with a team, but I’d guess he’ll have to wait well into January before he gets an offer. Wouldn’t a salary cap be the best thing for the players because it would force teams who keep a lower payroll to spend money (and also create more competitive balance)? A salary cap where teams had to spend a certain amount guaranteed would help (more of) the players, would it not? — Noah E. I have always been a proponent for a salary cap that would include a floor and a ceiling, but it’s a concept that has historically been a non-starter for the MLB Players Association. Here’s a recent piece from The Athletic’s Evan Drellich on a potential battle over a salary cap for the next collective bargaining agreement. If you could change one thing about the game to make it stronger/better, what would it be? Salary cap? Floor? Automated strike zone? Something else? — Greg P. I’ll go with geographic realignment that would include expansion to the cities of Nashville and either Salt Lake City or Charlotte and allow for eight divisions with four teams in each. Here’s a past article I wrote on geographic realignment. Jim, curious if you are hearing anything about the seemingly sorry state of the center field position across the sport and if there are any creative solutions about how teams might handle CF, either short term or developmentally. It just doesn’t seem like there are many consistently healthy true center fielders who can hit. To the extent you think that’s true, is it on the radars of general managers as a league-wide concern? — Lex S. Baseball can be cyclical in terms of strengths at different positions. I think last season featured some positive development at the center field position, including youngsters like Jackson Merrill of the Padres, Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox and Brenton Doyle of the Rockies. Remember, Judge played center field last year for the AL champion Yankees and Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez is a superstar despite his subpar season. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6015040/2024/12/23/mlb-hot-stove-trades-yankees-sasaki-burnes/
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