Is Raul Castro Dead?

[Corylax18]

I started hearing rumblings from friends about a week ago and the Havana Times posted the below article yesterday. Raul hasn't been seen in public in about 3 weeks, so if he is still alive, he is most likely quite sick. The president of Vietnam arrived in Cuba today for a multi day state visit, something that Raul would definitely participate in if he was healthy enough. If we don't see Raul at any of these diplomatic meetings over the next two days I think the rumors will really start flying. 

I only mention it because Raul is still running the country. Because he still runs the military. Diaz Canel and Manuel Marrero have no real clout. Neither will be "in charge" for long when the military turmoil does settle down. I know that Fidel "died" about a hundred times before he actually died, but Raul was always there to take over when he eventually did die. There isn't any certainty regarding who will take over when Raul does die. 

https://havanatimes.org/opinion/raul-castro-has-cuban-president-diaz-canel-trembling/

[MrBirdman]

1 hour ago, Corylax18 said:

There isn't any certainty regarding who will take over when Raul does die. 

Thank you for the update Cory. 

Is there a sense that Raul has or will pick a successor (behind the scenes, presumably) and that, if he does, anyone will care once he’s dead? If he is dead, I guess they would be hashing that out now.

In an autocratic country based on military rule, factions frequently emerge after a charismatic leader dies without an obvious successor. How likely do you think open conflict is?

[benfica_77]

I am concerned about the potential power vacuum when Raul passes I really hope Cuba doesn't turn into a Haiti with extreme poverty 

[El Presidente]

Manufactured military "show" coup. 

Greater electoral freedom (but no real input).  Release of some political figures. Closer bonds to US. Off the terrorism hot list.

Back to normal schedule. 

[JermzCC]

11 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Manufactured military "show" coup. 

Greater electoral freedom (but no real input).  Release of some political figures. Closer bonds to US. Off the terrorism hot list.

Back to normal schedule. 

As much as I’d love to see an end to this archaic “status quo” Cold War era relationship the Cuban vote in Florida is too powerful for any thawing of relationships. A power vacuum will almost assuredly end in someone with military power taking control. 

I don’t see either candidate making it a priority in their campaign and given one candidate reversing the previous thaw I see the embargo here to stay probably for my lifetime. 

[VeguerosMAN]

Raul Castro is a clone, and has been dead for a long time, just like many other world leaders. I see clones everywhere. 😁

[donnieg1809]

According to Cuban state media, Fidel is still alive and well. So, I'm sure Raul is at peak health right now.

[SCgarman]

When I'm dead I will arise again as a 3D hologram. 😁

[Corylax18]

On 9/24/2024 at 5:20 PM, MrBirdman said:

Thank you for the update Cory. 

Is there a sense that Raul has or will pick a successor (behind the scenes, presumably) and that, if he does, anyone will care once he’s dead? If he is dead, I guess they would be hashing that out now.

In an autocratic country based on military rule, factions frequently emerge after a charismatic leader dies without an obvious successor. How likely do you think open conflict is?

He hasn't publicly announced a successor and most of the "obvious" picks have died over the last few years. There was a wave of 5 or 6 high profile military leaders dying back in 202 or 2021, then another wave this summer. 5 more have died just this month, including a very prominent general on Tuesday. (First two links below) Many people thought they were being knocked off and COVID was being used as an excuse, but these guys are all in their late 80s to mid 90s so its more surprising they lived as long as they did. 

On 9/24/2024 at 5:58 PM, benfica_77 said:

I am concerned about the potential power vacuum when Raul passes I really hope Cuba doesn't turn into a Haiti with extreme poverty 

Agreed. The military power is nice, but the 100s of millions in stolen profits from the Hotels, Airports, Importers, etc. is the real prize. There is more than enough motivation to stab a comrade or two in the back. I would be very surprised if the transition went smoothly and without any violence. 

On 9/25/2024 at 5:58 AM, JermzCC said:

As much as I’d love to see an end to this archaic “status quo” Cold War era relationship the Cuban vote in Florida is too powerful for any thawing of relationships. A power vacuum will almost assuredly end in someone with military power taking control. 

I don’t see either candidate making it a priority in their campaign and given one candidate reversing the previous thaw I see the embargo here to stay probably for my lifetime. 

The Florida vote isn't up for grabs anymore. I don't want to go down the US politics rabbit hole here, but the democrats have mostly given up on Florida, as evidenced by the drastic drop in ad spending there. (bottom link below) The democrats wont be letting state politics there influence their decisions on a national level, at least during this election cycle. Biden still has time to pull an Obama and open things up on his way out. I only see that happening if the Dems win the presidency again, no reason to waste the time and effort if its going to be reversed in 6 months. 

https://eltoque.com/ramon-espinosa-martin-muere-hombre-de-confianza-de-fidel-y-raul-castro

https://www.granma.cu/cuba/2024-09-25/un-heroe-que-no-se-va-25-09-2024-20-09-16

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/florida-disappearing-national-political-map-rcna168260

[Corylax18]

Granma didnt even mention Raul in their article about To Lam's visit. As I said in my first post, he is very sick, at best. The silence speaks volumes. 

https://www.granma.cu/cuba/2024-09-26/cuba-recibe-al-presidente-vietnamita-con-la-calidez-de-un-amigo-26-09-2024-17-09-22

[BoliDan]

And it will be the most ambitious for avarice to succeed him. Hopefully via a shame election rather than show of force...That's a sad sentence to type.

[ha_banos]

So, no. Right? 

https://www.cuballama.com/noticias/reaparece-raul-castro-en-medio-de-rumores-sobre-su-fallecimiento/