EAR: Where do I go now?

[El Presidente]

EAR = Email Assistance Required. 

This was a tough one. I know the sender and I have received permission to put it on the forum. I wanted to put it on the forum in order to get a wide range of input from members, many of whom have extensive experience in the commerce/entrepreneurial world. 

 

" .......with two beautiful kids aged six and three, I am happily married living in XXX XXXX as you know. I am 35 and working in a major city water authority as an actuarial effectively on the area of risk assessment.  The money is good but coming technologies have me concerned about the longevity of the position. Like many in my age group I have a serious mortgage as well as the normal young family costs. My wife works 2 days a week as an accountant. Ideally she will move back to 4 days a week as the second enters school and WFH at least 1-2 days per week. 

I am OK with my job. I don't love it. My background pre college was an entrepreneurial family in the area of digital marketing. I worked part time through college in a cigar store in XXX XXXX. I do love customer engagement and it is something that I miss. I don't miss the money!

I only ask this question because you appear to be a serial entrepreneur with some success. Rob, I can see the writing on the wall in relation to my current role as the local authority I work in is in serious debt and developing tech will likely make me replaceable. 

Cutting to the short of it. What piece of advice would you give to a person in my position? I have always loved retail but I also love the money that I am on. Assuming I have 2 years remaining in my current role, where and how would you suggest I transition? It doesn't have to be entrepreneurial but I am at a loss. "

 

That is a big question . . All help appreciated. 

 

[gustavehenne]

This is a really tough one but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Many if not most jobs will have some form of collision with the 'AI' age and will either be disrupted, eliminated or untouched. You are not alone but you are fairly rare in that you have recognised this in advance and therefore have time to prep - well done.

As to what you do next this is very much something only you can answer. If you enjoy coding and tech, get involved in this ASAP and start skilling up - it will take years to learn and decades to master but you will always find work in this field if you can carry it off. If you are less technical but enjoy tech try project delivery, governance, risk etc. but please pleasure make sure its something you can hack as it can be a bore to many.

I loved what you said about working in the cigar store and loving it although as you appreciate the money (unless you are a billionaire entrepreneur like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Rob Ayala etc.) you couldn't make that work financially. Whilst I've not worked in a store I'd absolutely love to have a business in cigars or wine although I appreciate this would be largely vocational rather than financially driven as I don't have a wonderful unique idea.

Digital Marketing (or Marketing in a Digital World as I prefer to call it) is still a hot skill and you can make money from it. Yes, the field is crowded, but then nobody ever made anything from being average. I'm sure you are not.

My very best wishes and if you do want to chat it through always happy to have a call and lend a sympathetic ear with advice where possible. The key thing, in my view, to remember is that you WILL succeed. I'm a high-school dropout that doesn't have any qualifications and I've found that what used to make careers tick no longer do so - you are in the right place to reposition in the context of disruption.

Good luck !

[MickVanWinkle]

Woof - this one hits me right in the gut.  Similarly in an advanced analytics/actuarial role in healthcare analytics.  Though my company is relatively healthy and my industry is slow to adopt new tech due to legal/privacy concerns, this subject has taken up some serious headspace in my life.  

I also made a transition about 8 years ago from retail management and will fight tooth and nail to not go back (my heart always goes out to those who thrive and survive with the often thankless consumer).

My take when making the transition was to always grow and evolve.  I spent the first 5-7 years working 2x as hard to make up for lost time.  Maintaining an underdog outlook helped my career thrive.  I’m taking a similar mindset when looking at the competing tech/developments that could undermine my value.  I’ll continue to develop my talents in a manner that embraces the changing atmosphere.  
 

Also I’m networking like hell to be able to pivot as needed.
 

Best of luck and definitely share your ideas - it can only help us all in similar positions.

[El Presidente]

4 hours ago, gustavehenne said:

Digital Marketing (or Marketing in a Digital World as I prefer to call it) is still a hot skill and you can make money from it. Yes, the field is crowded, but then nobody ever made anything from being average. I'm sure you are not.

Steven, great reply thank you 

I love the point you raised above. 

My team will tell you that the phrase I put forward more than any other during a course of a month is "Show me the numbers".  Now that could be in relation to existing businesses or ones in their infancy. I would love to have a true data analyst/actuarial with a feel for business/people/opportunity on my payroll. Picture a business coach with meat. Perhaps upskill in the digital marketing world. His wife is an accountant. There are synergies to be explored. Exciting times. 

[El Presidente]

4 hours ago, MickVanWinkle said:

My take when making the transition was to always grow and evolve.  I spent the first 5-7 years working 2x as hard to make up for lost time.  Maintaining an underdog outlook helped my career thrive.  I’m taking a similar mindset when looking at the competing tech/developments that could undermine my value.  I’ll continue to develop my talents in a manner that embraces the changing atmosphere.  

Gold 

[gustavehenne]

7 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Steven, great reply thank you 

I love the point you raised above. 

My team will tell you that the phrase I put forward more than any other during a course of a month is "Show me the numbers".  Now that could be in relation to existing businesses or ones in their infancy. I would love to have a true data analyst/actuarial with a feel for business/people/opportunity on my payroll. Picture a business coach with meat. Perhaps upskill in the digital marketing world. His wife is an accountant. There are synergies to be explored. Exciting times. 

KPIs are a wonderful thing - set your baseline, set your targets and away you go. You won't always win but without a rudder you are sure to face a very cold and needlessly bumpy ride. In my view, you are asking exactly the right question - I've invested a bunch of money in X business unit and I now expect to see Y return - better you find out now something doesn't work, change it and then make a success of it. On the other hand, you run the best cigar business with one of the best interaction points with your customers (I'm typing on it) so you have a huge, and likely planned, head start.

I have a bunch of Data Analysts in my department and they are worth their weight in gold - I'm yet to be convinced its not something that GenAI and Machine Learning won't be able to solve in the future but we are not there yet - as I said to the OP, everyone has time to re-skill and re-position if they act soon. There was a hugely interesting article recently that explored a bunch of Harvard (or Ivy League) graduates that took a few weeks to solve a corporate strategy problem whereas ChatGPT did it (to the same level apparently) in 60 minutes. Long have 'senior managers' thought that AI would disrupt the 'workers' rather than the executives. This is absolutely not the case. Every area of life will be affected by this and I'd wager that the next five years will see more than the last ten, and so on and so forth.

I'm glad to see the various governments pulling together to try and figure this out (only thing they've done in the UK that pleased me) as unless the general population is readied for this change, it will leave a lot behind.

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, gustavehenne said:

KPIs are a wonderful thing - set your baseline, set your targets and away you go. You won't always win but without a rudder you are sure to face a very cold and needlessly bumpy ride. In my view, you are asking exactly the right question - I've invested a bunch of money in X business unit and I now expect to see Y return - better you find out now something doesn't work, change it and then make a success of it. On the other hand, you run the best cigar business with one of the best interaction points with your customers (I'm typing on it) so you have a huge, and likely planned, head start.

I have a bunch of Data Analysts in my department and they are worth their weight in gold - I'm yet to be convinced its not something that GenAI and Machine Learning won't be able to solve in the future but we are not there yet - as I said to the OP, everyone has time to re-skill and re-position if they act soon. There was a hugely interesting article recently that explored a bunch of Harvard (or Ivy League) graduates that took a few weeks to solve a corporate strategy problem whereas ChatGPT did it (to the same level apparently) in 60 minutes. Long have 'senior managers' thought that AI would disrupt the 'workers' rather than the executives. This is absolutely not the case. Every area of life will be affected by this and I'd wager that the next five years will see more than the last ten, and so on and so forth.

I'm glad to see the various governments pulling together to try and figure this out (only thing they've done in the UK that pleased me) as unless the general population is readied for this change, it will leave a lot behind.

 

It is all about the people around you Steven. We work in different universes as you know. However, the quality and love of those that surround you is all important..at least in the small sector that I play in....but I suspect it is much the same. 

Numbers are important. Risk? measure it, budget for it, To fail early is a blessing, I have had 11 businesses in my life to date and I would say 3 have been successes, 6 have broken even and two fails. Fail early is the best and by fail I mean cut them early/be across your numbers. 

To be 35 agian? The drive has to be within you. Fail or flourish. No fear. Not one decision you make should define you.Charachter, drive, numbers, It is all but a game in the entrepreneurial sphere. It is not for everyone. 

 

 

[jakebarnes]

17 hours ago, El Presidente said:

It is all about the people around you Steven. We work in different universes as you know. However, the quality and love of those that surround you is all important..at least in the small sector that I play in....but I suspect it is much the same. 

Numbers are important. Risk? measure it, budget for it, To fail early is a blessing, I have had 11 businesses in my life to date and I would say 3 have been successes, 6 have broken even and two fails. Fail early is the best and by fail I mean cut them early/be across your numbers. 

To be 35 agian? The drive has to be within you. Fail or flourish. No fear. Not one decision you make should define you.Charachter, drive, numbers, It is all but a game in the entrepreneurial sphere. It is not for everyone.

It's taken me a while for the bolded to sink in, but it's true. I'd sacrifice 5% of salary for a group of people I actually enjoy being around that share my work-values and drive. 

[BrightonCorgi]

Train to be a plumber or electrician and start counting the money.

[dominattorney]

13 minutes ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Train to be a plumber or electrician and start counting the money.

This. Or HVAC sales with an ability to do the install. There's probably plenty of other opportunities in this area I'm not even aware of. 

Paralegals do well also, especially in states where certificates are not required. I laugh in private at younger lawyers in my circle who tell me about a new job they landed. Never heard of one earn more than I pay my lead paralegal. 

[Fuzz]

Buy a bunch of hydroponics gear and start growing the Devil's Lettuce.

[MossybackR]

The retail wine and cigar business — at least in the States can be — is fraught with uncertainty in landscape of different states and communities, and littered with failures due to lower prices from big-box distributors and online distributors. Success and customer engagement  can be had, but my brother, as owner of a popular and successful wine shop for a decade, said, “You have to sell *every* bottle of wine 😏.

[porkchop]

Have your wife start a minority LLC and sell AI consultation/solutions to water authorities. 

[PuroDiario]

Very difficult, as it seems sender is in a fulcrum-type moment. How i would approach:

1. Cut costs in your life, but not the classic Instagram dickhead recipe. You enjoy life as you are and carry on with your life, im a proponent of YOLO but measured, but cut the stupid spending that does not bring you joy neither it does accrue to you. Meaning, cut the gym membership you visit 2x a month and work out with an app at home. Little stuff. It compounds. 

2. Think about your core expertise today. Where else is it valuable? Start talking to people under the context you are an option and the underlying asset is your expertise. How do you make options valuable? Volatility. How do you intentionally create volatility for this specific matter? Talk to a lot of people, reach out cold and warm, get introduced, identify where the stuff you know is helpful. That volatility will show the value of the asset your expertise is. From that ideally you can start consulting externally for small and mid size businesses, local entrepreneurs, announce yourself in Fivrr, whatever. Get paid for that, naturally the first assignments will be below your goals but as you prove value and build credentials your rates will move up, your network will increase in quality, and so on. It is a flywheel of sorts, takes time and it is a grind. But it can work, happy to share my experience as an immigrant in US whenever you want to catch up.

3. Acquire interests in assets. Is not only through disposable income you should invest. But per #2 if your skillset is valuable to company A and assume you are charging for it, consider if you like the company and is a young company with ambitious management to roll part of that into the equity (i can help think through ways on both proposing, structuring, thinking of that). You further lock yourself in, and should it be a right investment, you will eventually multiply your value. Obviously this has upfront costs as you will need to think through contracts, etc. Basic economic principle applies, time preference.

4. Learning to code and all that, i find it difficult to be a good proposition. Moore law...plus the majority of code is already written by AI. Also Picket's law, capital compounds faster than labor (in a nutshell). The majority of analytics is already performed by AI. In my view you would be better off studying to become a lawyer and specialize in IP or niche areas around your current field where you will have both sector expertise and the legal knowledge. In a world where reality is a luxury good given AI is already embedded in everything, being a guardian / expert in protecting "real" has value. Then learn how to prompt well, 300 usd in coursera type course. And use the tools to your advantage. AI tools will be somewhat commoditized soon for us the mortals.

5. Create an online service business with your wife in her free time. As you go about #2 you can also learn about gaps in your local area in services. Are people in need of nannies? House cleaners? Landscaping? whatever it is. Digital front, have people advertise for free, fund the costs of hosting and the like with basic affiliate marketing deals (your family background will help), do direct marketing of the services to the potential buyers. 1) AI tools for this direct email and social targeting exist 2) Virtual assistant for 1-2k will do these calls for you. Servicer gets paid through you as people pay upfront for service. You take commission. Will never become the rover group, or it will be tough. But you may be able to find a niche where you clean 5-15k monthly like this. Basically you are creating a classifieds business. These businesses scale well if you find the right connectivity between supply and demand for the right need. Lots need to go right, but you may find that need....so instead of training to become a plumber you can be the state solution to find one...hopefully.

6. If you are above the IRA limit do a backdoor ROTH IRA. Continue to do it annually up to the limit. Use this money either to buy dividend paying long term holdings or even better invest in #5 like ideas or your entrepreneurial journey. Is tax free. This is how Thiel made billions tax free. Is there a google search away, just that. 

All of these for scenarios where you don't want to move away from where you live today are things i would consider. 

[El Presidente]

Great advice Puro D 

[Lamboinee]

I have similar difficulties when contemplating my professional future. Albeit for different reasons. I do not care for my current job, but my 8 ball is stuck on "future hazy, ask again never". For myself, I think it is important to figure out what I WANT to do. But that's not so easy. My advice, find what you WANT, then just go do it. Avoid the path of least resistance, unless you have a bunch of well heeled connections that can plug you into something great.

The only difference between me and those that are doing that which I think I want to do, is that the others are doing it and I'm not. Whenever I really want something, somehow I find a way. You gotta want something. Stay the course my friend, and realize that changing will be difficult.