EAR: How did we get to where we are.

[Ryan]

2 hours ago, Duxnutz said:

If I was Rocky Patel or Padron I’d start heavily advertising in Spain and Europe. 

Rocky Patel, Carlito Fuente and Jorge Padrón were literally jumping in the air, high-fiving each other, at the InterTabac trade fair in Dortmund last September. I'm not making this up. They're all producing or planning European exclusives. I was at a meeting with Davidoff at the Habanos stand at that show (they had available chairs). Nobody from Habanos was there to care.

 

[SCgarman]

1 hour ago, Ryan said:

Rocky Patel, Carlito Fuente and Jorge Padrón were literally jumping in the air, high-fiving each other, at the InterTabac trade fair in Dortmund last September. I'm not making this up. They're all producing or planning European exclusives. I was at a meeting with Davidoff at the Habanos stand at that show (they had available chairs). Nobody from Habanos was there to care.

 

Habanos has left a huge void in the market. The cigar makers you mentioned will surely fill the void. 

 

2 hours ago, Greenhorn2 said:

How can HSA market these cigars as a luxury product? How many people have bought Rolex watches and had to work on them just to get them to run?

Habanos comparing themselves to Rolex (which I own), Hermes, Ferrari, or any other "desirable" luxury good is laughable at best. Apples vs. Oranges. Durable goods vs. Consumables

[Rhinoww]

As nutty as list prices are, resellers/grey market are listing and selling sticks for more. A “sale” with PLPC at $597 from a reseller I used to buy from regularly just hit my in bin. Hard to see those prices staying or market to be there for PLPC among many other marcas and Vitolas. Only so many folks who want post on Instagram with a picture of their Swiss watch du jour and a lot Habanos. Only so many who will see say a cab of PLMC at $12/stick as a reasonable. 
Perhaps Habanos needs to get their pricing off my lawn. Perhaps I’m not in touch.
But it’s been 7 months since I bought a box of CC. Seems like that run may be unbroken for a while as I work down my stash. Will be interesting to see if they can redefine their market and find enough consumers

[Bijan]

1 hour ago, Rhinoww said:

But it’s been 7 months since I bought a box of CC. Seems like that run may be unbroken for a while as I work down my stash. Will be interesting to see if they can redefine their market and find enough consumers

It's been 8 months for me as well.

But before covid, I used to buy at duty free and Canadian retail prices (just a lot less than now), and Canadian retail prices haven't moved much.

Also as we can see from the daily smoke thread, just as some have moved to NCs, others have moved down market, from Siglo VI and Esmeraldas to Epi 2 and PSD4s, and from RASS and PSD4s, to Super Partagas and MF.

[SCgarman]

2 hours ago, Rhinoww said:

As nutty as list prices are, resellers/grey market are listing and selling sticks for more. A “sale” with PLPC at $597 from a reseller I used to buy from regularly just hit my in bin. Hard to see those prices staying or market to be there for PLPC among many other marcas and Vitolas. Only so many folks who want post on Instagram with a picture of their Swiss watch du jour and a lot Habanos. Only so many who will see say a cab of PLMC at $12/stick as a reasonable. 
Perhaps Habanos needs to get their pricing off my lawn. Perhaps I’m not in touch.
But it’s been 7 months since I bought a box of CC. Seems like that run may be unbroken for a while as I work down my stash. Will be interesting to see if they can redefine their market and find enough consumers

PLPC 50 cab at $597 is insane. Even $450 is insane. The cab I bought was $260. These are not $10-15usd cigars, no matter what HSA thinks. The fact they need 5 years of sleep or more to come into their own even makes it worse. I'll enjoy what's left of my cab, and when they're gone that's it.

[Bijan]

55 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

PLPC 50 cab at $597 is insane. Even $450 is insane. The cab I bought was $260. These are not $10-15usd cigars, no matter what HSA thinks. The fact they need 5 years of sleep or more to come into their own even makes it worse. I'll enjoy what's left of my cab, and when they're gone that's it.

PLPC was $250 a cab from 2000-2020... Definitely insane.

Edit: But everything is pretty much 2x now...

[El Presidente]

8 hours ago, SCgarman said:

Habanos has left a huge void in the market. The cigar makers you mentioned will surely fill the void. 

 

Habanos comparing themselves to Rolex (which I own), Hermes, Ferrari, or any other "desirable" luxury good is laughable at best. Apples vs. Oranges. Durable goods vs. Consumables

 Dom Pérignon, Veuve Clicquot, Perrier-Jouët, Godiva, Ladurée, Fauchon, Teuscher, Fortnum & Mason

High end green coffee bean, Kona, Geisha + many others $50-$350 a pound. 

To'ak Chocolate  $250 to $5000 + per bar. Svalbarði Polar Iceberg Water - $100 per 750ml bottle, Kona Nigari Water - $402 per 750ml bottle

Top end cheeses  $200 - $500+ per pound. Pule/Wyke etc. Almas caviar, $25000 Kilogram. Beluga $7000

We haven't even scratched the surface 

 

Now you have to earn the right to charge extravagant prices. It requires product positioning in the minds of the target market you are pursuing. It requires scarcity. 

 

[TobaccoRoad]

IF the US were to change the import laws to make Cuban cigars legal. The resulting scarcity would make cigarmageddon and current price levels seem like the good old days.

[SCgarman]

3 hours ago, TobaccoRoad said:

IF the US were to change the import laws to make Cuban cigars legal. The resulting scarcity would make cigarmageddon and current price levels seem like the good old days.

Cuba simply couldn't supply the usa with legal Habanos. They don't have the infrastructure to meet that type of objective. Talk about empty shelves!

[NSXCIGAR]

15 hours ago, Rhinoww said:

But it’s been 7 months since I bought a box of CC.

Haven't bought anything from a vendor since cigarmaggedon. Fortunately I go to Cuba several times a year am able to only buy there. I can't imagine having to pay close to $500 for many of my staples like Famosos and Connie 2. 

2 hours ago, SCgarman said:

Cuba simply couldn't supply the usa with legal Habanos. They don't have the infrastructure to meet that type of objective

Tabacuba certainly couldn't do it but if privatized Cuba could meet the demand and then some as they did for over a century. 

As the situation is now would Americans pay $30+ for a D4? I would suggest anyone that would is already obtaining them. I think CCs would be a pretty tough sell next to all the other NC options at 10-20% the price. I always believed that at cost parity CCs would likely win but at these prices NCs would be tough to edge out. 

[SCgarman]

5 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Haven't bought anything from a vendor since cigarmaggedon. Fortunately I go to Cuba several times a year am able to only buy there. I can't imagine having to pay close to $500 for many of my staples like Famosos and Connie 2. 

Tabacuba certainly couldn't do it but if privatized Cuba could meet the demand and then some as they did for over a century. 

As the situation is now would Americans pay $30+ for a D4? I would suggest anyone that would is already obtaining them. I think CCs would be a pretty tough sell next to all the other NC options at 10-20% the price. I always believed that at cost parity CCs would likely win but at these prices NCs would be tough to edge out. 

It's a hypothetical question anyways. Our congress is much too polarized and dysfunctional to "legalize" any Cuban products. It won't happen in my lifetime anyway. I'm 57 this year. Embargo status quo full steam ahead. 

[joeypots]

I've always agreed with the idea that ending the Cuban embargo would be bad for Cuban cigar quality due to increased demand and the wholesale selling of Cuban tobacco. We are participating in a grand Cuban experiment. Can they decrease supply and increase prices enough to survive?  Some things sell better when prices are raised. The fine art world and its collectors are well aware of this and the greater fool concept applies. There are probably enough people with the means to buy Cuban cigars at current and higher prices. The question is will they buy? I think they will based on the limited experience I’ve had traveling and seeing people in high end smoking shops and lounges. Exclusivity has its own laws of supply and demand. 

[helix]

48 minutes ago, joeypots said:

There are probably enough people with the means to buy Cuban cigars at current and higher prices.

Yes there are until cigars are no longer cool and trendy . 

[SCgarman]

2 hours ago, joeypots said:

I've always agreed with the idea that ending the Cuban embargo would be bad for Cuban cigar quality due to increased demand and the wholesale selling of Cuban tobacco. We are participating in a grand Cuban experiment. Can they decrease supply and increase prices enough to survive?  Some things sell better when prices are raised. The fine art world and its collectors are well aware of this and the greater fool concept applies. There are probably enough people with the means to buy Cuban cigars at current and higher prices. The question is will they buy? I think they will based on the limited experience I’ve had traveling and seeing people in high end smoking shops and lounges. Exclusivity has its own laws of supply and demand. 

Depends how you define "enough to survive". I'm sure the Cuban gov't/military are "surviving" a bit better than the tobacco farmers not being paid, or the common folk waiting in lines for hours a day for basic necessities we all take for granted.

[joeypots]

1 hour ago, SCgarman said:

Depends how you define "enough to survive". I'm sure the Cuban gov't/military are "surviving" a bit better than the tobacco farmers not being paid, or the common folk waiting in lines for hours a day for basic necessities we all take for granted.

Survive like a self sustaining industry. I know, it’s a totalitarian country. From the beginning of cigarmageddon I’ve thought that Habanos was going to have to raise prices as it got harder, labor, crops, covid, storms, corruption, to manufacture cigars.  I’m not commenting on the conditions people of Cuba suffer, which is abhorrent and unnecessary,(IMHO), just the just the state of that industry as it is affecting us people who love the cigars.

 

3 hours ago, helix said:

Yes there are until cigars are no longer cool and trendy . 

I don’t know that cigars are particularly trendy right now. I was smoking NCs in ’97, just before the big cigar boom came. I moved on to Cuban cigars in ’01 and most of the people I know who were smoking cigars stopped. This is all anecdotal course, but the cigar boom was wild for a few years at the beginning of the century. When I talk about people with the means to buy I’m referring to people who are legitimate high net worth individuals. If the Cuban cigar industry can attract and keep them, and it seems like that’s what they want to do, they will be OK. 

[bates40]

11 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Haven't bought anything from a vendor since cigarmaggedon. Fortunately I go to Cuba several times a year am able to only buy there. I can't imagine having to pay close to $500 for many of my staples like Famosos and Connie 2. 

Tabacuba certainly couldn't do it but if privatized Cuba could meet the demand and then some as they did for over a century. 

As the situation is now would Americans pay $30+ for a D4? I would suggest anyone that would is already obtaining them. I think CCs would be a pretty tough sell next to all the other NC options at 10-20% the price. I always believed that at cost parity CCs would likely win but at these prices NCs would be tough to edge out. 

I really want to like NCs, but I simply can't, with the rare exception of OPUS. 

[NSXCIGAR]

2 hours ago, bates40 said:

I really want to like NCs, but I simply can't, with the rare exception of OPUS. 

I've never found any that really appealed to me either but with 460 million premium cigars in the US every year someone's buying and liking them. CCs have been pretty easy to get for over a decade and it doesn't look like CCs are gaining on NCs in the US. I know in Europe NCs have been gaining on CCs for quite a while. 

NC quality has seen pretty linear quality improvements for over 30 years. Where will they be in another 20? Yes, there will always be a large portion of smokers who are dedicated to CCs but Cuba is really sniffing its own farts if they think they're the only game in town. 

[Duxnutz]

4 hours ago, bates40 said:

I really want to like NCs, but I simply can't, with the rare exception of OPUS. 

It’s definitely an acquired taste for me and a fair amount of trial and error. There really isn’t anything that smells as good as a nice box of Cubans. 

[helix]

Good Gar is a good Gar.

[Monterey]

On 4/20/2023 at 3:00 PM, El Presidente said:

 Dom Pérignon, Veuve Clicquot, Perrier-Jouët, Godiva, Ladurée, Fauchon, Teuscher, Fortnum & Mason

High end green coffee bean, Kona, Geisha + many others $50-$350 a pound. 

To'ak Chocolate  $250 to $5000 + per bar. Svalbarði Polar Iceberg Water - $100 per 750ml bottle, Kona Nigari Water - $402 per 750ml bottle

Top end cheeses  $200 - $500+ per pound. Pule/Wyke etc. Almas caviar, $25000 Kilogram. Beluga $7000

We haven't even scratched the surface 

 

Now you have to earn the right to charge extravagant prices. It requires product positioning in the minds of the target market you are pursuing. It requires scarcity. 

 

How many people have to buy a special tool because their Dom Pérignon wasn't right and they had to fix it?  Yet alone 2-3 bottles to fix for ever 25 bottles they bought Occasionally having to pitch a bottle because it was too far gone?.  Meanwhile their "lower" competitors made wine that you didn't have to ever fix to enjoy?  Nothing in your list is comparable to the plugs and construction issue of "luxurious cubans"

Course my "luxurious" bmw that needs constant fixes may be the best comparison!  Wish I could go back in time and stop that purchase.

[KnightsAnole]

Cuba wants their cigars to be a “luxury” product, but they obviously aren’t. They have good tobacco, that’s it. If they want to be luxury, and charge these prices, they have to do everything else better. People put up with “Cuba being Cuba” because of the price. Take that away and people won’t put up with it, pretty simple