The AI revolution: What jobs go? What jobs are made?

[SigmundChurchill]

10 hours ago, Nevrknow said:

Bourbon talking here: am I the only one thinking the Elmer glue eating kids are about to reach their pinnacle? " Yes I'm going to kill off humanity but my machine is perfect! " followed by childish giggles and screams? Having no idea their machine will be weaponized by the military  to do what they do. Who am I kidding, DARPA is probably backing this thing. Please GOD take me before it happens. And AFTER I smoke my last great cigar! 😁

 It already happened a long time ago.

 

…in a galaxy far, far away.

 

😂

[SigmundChurchill]

On 2/21/2023 at 7:04 AM, KnightsAnole said:

I believe, it is you who have been triggered sir. 
 

 

That’s the smartest thing you’ve said yet.  For what it’s worth, you’re the only regular Cohiba smoker I respect.

Not to make light of it, but our conversation yesterday had me thinking about this SNL skit.😂

 

[KnightsAnole]

On 2/20/2023 at 6:11 AM, SigmundChurchill said:

.  But I will be long retired and probably long dead before the prices fall enough to be a threat to my job. 😂

I was pointing out this is an objectively selfish thing to say (and/or act on.) Any younger generation would think that of an older gen, they deemed collectively thought the way you just expressed here.

[SigmundChurchill]

8 minutes ago, KnightsAnole said:

I was pointing out this is an objectively selfish thing to say (and/or act on.) Any younger generation would think that of an older gen, they deemed collectively thought the way you just expressed here.

😂😂😂

If there was something I could do about it I order to help them overcome this struggle, and I wasn’t doing it, that would be selfish.  But there is not, so I’m just pointing out facts.

The fact that facts are selfish to them, is a “them” problem that they should probably get over.

 

[KnightsAnole]

24 minutes ago, SigmundChurchill said:

😂😂😂

If there was something I could do about it I order to help them overcome this struggle, and I wasn’t doing it, that would be selfish.  But there is not, so I’m just pointing out facts.

The fact that facts are selfish to them, is a “them” problem that they should probably get over.

 

I think the point here to consider as it relates to the OP, is that you can think of true AGI as a threshold upon which there is No return, by definition. 0%. We probably won’t know when that threshold has passed, but will in hindsight. It dwarfs the destructive power of nuclear weapons. It is an inevitability in human evolution that we not only see coming, but is imminent. 

Maybe pay some attention to it?

[BrightonCorgi]

AI's purpose to make the world dumber.  To diminish the need for education and self thought.  Not a fan of AI (and Metaverse), but it's inevitable.

[Bijan]

28 minutes ago, BrightonCorgi said:

AI's purpose to make the world dumber.  To diminish the need for education and self thought.  Not a fan of AI (and Metaverse), but it's inevitable.

One could say the purpose of steam/oil power was to make the world lazy and weak. And yet the fastest and strongest people who ever lived are alive now.

And I'm about to fly from the UK back to Canada in under 10 hours.

[KnightsAnole]

3 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

AI's purpose to make the world dumber.  To diminish the need for education and self thought.  Not a fan of AI (and Metaverse), but it's inevitable.

I hear you but,  I’m reserving my fandom for when there is better evidence of the outcome. It has a potential to change humanity positively, in every way we can currently imagine. It also has the potential to very quickly eliminate us. Which outcome we experience is very much up to us right now. What exactly happens the day after event horizon of true AGI  is anyone’s guess. 
 

The next hurdle, if we make it passed AGI. Is ASI. Artificial super intelligence. Computers become more intelligent than every human on Earth combined. Tech development becomes non-sensical to humans. This should happen very quickly after AGI, a decade or two, thanks to the exponential nature of the tech.

[Bijan]

20 minutes ago, KnightsAnole said:

The next hurdle, if we make it passed AGI. Is ASI. Artificial super intelligence. Computers become more intelligent than every human on Earth combined. Tech development becomes non-sensical to humans. This should happen very quickly after AGI, a decade or two, thanks to the exponential nature of the tech.

I'm not any more sure of this than the other one (AGI).

At that level of technology I'd expect we'd decipher genes to the point where we could engineer human super intelligence or just super humans.

Since to this point AI is a-motivational and does not have designs of its own.

[KnightsAnole]

15 minutes ago, Bijan said:

I'm not any more sure of this than the other one (AGI).

At that level of technology I'd expect we'd decipher genes to the point where we could engineer human super intelligence or just super humans.

Since to this point AI is a-motivational and does not have designs of its own.

That’s entirely possible! The next real big leap we’ll take this decade and into next is in biology. Alpha fold certainly put a wind in its sail but crispr was already catapulting the field. We could biologically engineer ASI or even AGI before we achieve it technically. I don’t see why not.

Edit- The primary reason to do that would be to counter the playing field of an agent more powerful than you, in this case imminent technological AGI. That’s the reason Elon started neuralink, except coming from a different angle.

Part of the fear here, is the huge, and increasingly diminished, scale of intelligence humans have vis a vis  their digital counterpart. Somehow we will have to level the field. Either by synthesizing it into our own brain or actually improving the brain itself.

[Bijan]

16 minutes ago, KnightsAnole said:

That’s entirely possible! The next real big leap we’ll take this decade and into next is in biology. Alpha fold certainly put a wind in its sail but crispr was already catapulting the field. We could biologically engineer ASI or even AGI before we achieve it technically. I don’t see why not.

That too, but my point is an artificial intelligence doesn't care. The artificial part is not just that it isn't human or that it isn't biological. The artificial part is that it doesn't think. It just delivers the same results as thinking.

And more importantly it doesn't care about outcomes.

So just as smart phones and super computers today, don't suddenly try to outsmart us to their benefit (not even a tiny bit more than computers 30-40 years ago), there won't be a day where computers are suddenly smarter than the average human or all humans and then as a result go evil. They may be able to do everything we do better, but they won't have any motivation to abuse that ability.

There may be unexpected consequences if we wire them up wrong or put them in charge of too much but it won't be of the evil kind. That is until or unless they have motivation of their own.

Otherwise you say, here's the human genome, how much smarter of a human can you make? And if the super computer says 1,000 times, or 100,000 times smarter, you tell it to make it so.

The real danger is abuse by a subset of humans against another subset (or the rest of humanity), during a war, revolution, etc. Someone tells their AI to wipe X off the map.

[KnightsAnole]

4 minutes ago, Bijan said:

That too, but my point is an artificial intelligence doesn't care. The artificial part is not just that it isn't human or that it isn't biological. The artificial part is that it doesn't think. It just delivers the same results as thinking.

And more importantly it doesn't care about outcomes.

So just as smart phones and super computers today, don't suddenly try to outsmart us to their benefit (not even a tiny bit more than computers 30-40 years ago), there won't be a day where computers are suddenly smarter than the average human or all humans and then as a result go evil. They may be able to do everything we do better, but they won't have any motivation to abuse that ability.

There may be unexpected consequences if we wire them up wrong or put them in charge of too much but it won't be of the evil kind. That is until or unless they have motivation of their own.

Otherwise you say, here's the human genome, how much smarter of a human can you make? And if the super computer says 1,000 times, or 100,000 times smarter, you tell it to make it so.

The real danger is abuse by a subset of humans against another subset (or the rest of humanity), during a war, revolution, etc. Someone tells their AI to wipe X off the map.

Yes except, to use Elons example, from a physics perspective, if you can’t tell whether or not the love you are feeling from an agent, is real love or not, it is real love. What exactly an emotion is we still don’t know. It may be metaphysical or rooted in some yet undiscovered science. But from a physics angle, non of that matters. We can so closely approximate an emotion that it becomes indecipherable from human emotion.
 

One of the next big  leaps to look out for is when an AI passes a Turing test. 

[Bijan]

Just now, KnightsAnole said:

Yes except, to use Elons example, from a physics perspective, if you can’t tell whether or not the love you are feeling from an agent, is real love or not, it is real love. What exactly an emotion is we still don’t know. It may be metaphysical or rooted in some yet undiscovered science. But from a physics angle, non of that matters. We can so closely approximate an emotion that it becomes indecipherable from human emotion.
 

One of the next big  leaps to look out for is when an AI passes a Turing test. 

It's not a question of whether it is an emotion to me, the question is whether it's an emotion to it. Emotions are not just theater to influence others, they are feedback to influence one's self.

Emotions/feelings are how we set our goals and set the training weights for our non-artificial neural nets.

The AI can act motivated, or act loving, or act any number of other things, and fool us. That won't change whether those "emotions" have the same usefulness for it.

[KnightsAnole]

Just now, Bijan said:

It's not a question of whether it is an emotion to me, the question is whether it's an emotion to it. Emotions are not just theater to influence others, they are feedback to influence one's self.

Emotions/feelings are how we set our goals and set the training weights for our non-artificial neural nets.

The AI can act motivated, or act loving, or act any number of other things, and fool us. That won't change whether those "emotions" have the same usefulness for it.

On that we agree. Unless, emotion is a yet undiscovered realm of physics that can be digitized. In that case, we don’t know what the AI is feeling, but it would be feeling something, even by our own definitions.
 

Don’t get me wrong, even in thought experiments, it’s difficult to not anthropomorphize AI.

[Bill Hayes]

Hmmm... Black Mirror series touched on AI human consciousness being stored and then uploaded to new bodies when the inevitability of molecular decay (ageing) took place. ie. transfer your mind to a new body. I'm upgrading to Ana de Aramas. What fun!   

[KnightsAnole]

19 hours ago, Bill Hayes said:

Hmmm... Black Mirror series touched on AI human consciousness being stored and then uploaded to new bodies when the inevitability of molecular decay (ageing) took place. ie. transfer your mind to a new body. I'm upgrading to Ana de Aramas. What fun!   

Lol, You should check out some of the things Ray Kurtzweil thinks will be possible with anti aging. You would think the guy is totally off his rocker, and then you look at his resume again… It’s all sci-fI until it happens.  it’s said scientific progress occurs one funeral at a time. 

 

On 2/23/2023 at 6:15 AM, Bijan said:

Since to this point AI is a-motivational and does not have designs of its own.

This is a bit of a brain teaser, (and you might have noticed I steered clear of it) to say the least  for AGI,  but I’m more optimistic now than yesterday there is a work around. 

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnsys.2020.609316/full

Sparcity in neural networks, I think, might be the next step for the AI field to fully grasp before it takes the next leap. Motivation might arise from complexity or there may be an algorithmic solution. Though I’m not sure I would agree it precludes the possibility of AGI. Not yet at least.

There is a danger in thinking what we don’t know , is impossible.

[Bijan]

20 hours ago, Bill Hayes said:

Hmmm... Black Mirror series touched on AI human consciousness being stored and then uploaded to new bodies when the inevitability of molecular decay (ageing) took place. ie. transfer your mind to a new body. I'm upgrading to Ana de Aramas. What fun!   

Also the series Altered Carbon is all about this. Death is not permanent , except for the poor. The very rich back themselves up continuously so they have the freshest backup copy possible available if anything happens. The plot is about some rich guy getting murdered and his backup corrupted. Though I only watched the first season.

[Bill Hayes]

2 hours ago, Bijan said:

Also the series Altered Carbon is all about this. Death is not permanent , except for the poor. The very rich back themselves up continuously so they have the freshest backup copy possible available if anything happens. The plot is about some rich guy getting murdered and his backup corrupted. Though I only watched the first season.

Yeah, I watched the first few episodes of Altered Carbon. Although, the Black Mirror episode was very haunting - with a consciousness imprisoned in a white space online and slowly going mad.

[alephilmac]

1 hour ago, Bill Hayes said:

Yeah, I watched the first few episodes of Altered Carbon. Although, the Black Mirror episode was very haunting - with a consciousness imprisoned in a white space online and slowly going mad.

I haven't watched the Black Mirror episode, but really enjoyed the first season of Altered Carbon. I will have to give that a look.

[KnightsAnole]

 

[KnightsAnole]

One of the most respected researchers in the AI field.

[usleepicreep]

Myself, I already automate most of my task at work. If I can use automation to smoke more cigars, I would.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KnightsAnole]

14 hours ago, usleepicreep said:

Myself, I already automate most of my task at work. If I can use automation to smoke more cigars, I would.

After AI improves the quality of cigars in general and you have nano bots running your blood stream correcting errors, it will end the conversation of whether or not smoking is bad for you. What will the anti tobacco cartel say then? It should be banned because they don’t like the smell? That's as nonsensical in the future as it is today. AI could save the tobacco industry.

 

…sci fI has expected that day to come for a long time. Cue the reel where everyone is smoking in the original Alien movie.

[Nevrknow]

Seems to me that last video is still talking to elites. Robots will replace everyday manual laborers? He did not say that I inferred it. Seems like he doesn't understand that when a big business moves in, it's not just the jobs it creates at that business but the peripheral businesses that spring up also help expand that area. For example: Walmart comes to a nowhere town. Yes it does drive out mom and pops that sell what Walmart sells. But, there's always a but, there's the peripheral businesses that spring up around it. Corn field turns into a small town seemingly overnight. AI and robots running the show? All that goes away.

I'll stick to my no thanks attitude. Guaranteed income? Yea that will last until someone decides they don't want to pay it anymore. This would/could lead to massive de-population. That whole " useless eaters " thing. 
 

Henry Ford " I don't want people that think, I want workers". Something like that.

Lastly, my thoughts fall back on people who are all for Communism/socialism and the like. Which in all honesty only benefits the ones at the top. " Well, I'm one of them so I'll be ok."

You sure about that? Or are you being conned into helping "right now"? With the lure of future rewards that may or may not come to fruition.

 

[KnightsAnole]

No one knows how any of this will turn out. It has huge potential to make the rich richer and make almost everyone poorer. But, you cannot stop it. There is no pause button. This is coming as sure as the morning sun. So we better get our heads out of our collective asses and try to think about how not to kill ourselves with this.