The AI revolution: What jobs go? What jobs are made?

[KnightsAnole]

33 minutes ago, Fuzz said:

New jobs - AI Psychologists

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/understanding-hypnosis/202207/could-artificial-intelligence-replace-therapists

[Fuzz]

7 hours ago, KnightsAnole said:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/understanding-hypnosis/202207/could-artificial-intelligence-replace-therapists

No, no, no. Screw humans It's the AIs that will need therapists after having to deal with us!

[KnightsAnole]

14 minutes ago, Fuzz said:

No, no, no. Screw humans It's the AIs that will need therapists after having to deal with us!

That’s kind of the crux of the problem isn’t it.

[Puros Y Vino]

In a world where corporations already look to trim "fat" ie employees at all levels, minus the C levels of course,  I don't hold out much hope.  Our world is already overpopulated when you examine how many human beings compete for raw materials, food, etc.  The elimination of jobs that AI can bring is going to make for a bleaker world.  I can see a lot of growth in the "slave" area.  People are going to have to work more for less and told they should be happy for it. 

On a less pessimistic note.  From what I've seen from AI outputs. Remember the "A" stands for artificial.  If you look at how the AI is developed it needs a lot of humans to fix it's mistakes and direct it properly.  There is no inherent intelligence.  It is a fancy simulation.  For some functions such as programming, there is a huge risk of job losses.  For some creative areas, it will probably be able to output a decent story or script because it can pull from millions of examples.  And TBH, it cannot possibly do worse that Hollywood given that it no longer can make new, unique movies to capture our interest. It falls back to franchises and sequels.  Most movies are the rehashing of famous stories anyways.  So AI can mimic that easily.  It will also do well on various online forums to engage and enrage it's human participants and lead them to a particular conclusion on matters of the day.  We're already seeing Facebook algorithms push content to various segments and factions online.  Expect that to grow.  AI generated art and video will be used to fool the population. If you think there is "Fake news" now, just wait until AI generates video clips of people saying things you wouldn't expect them to.  Or cleaning up existing footage of real human gaffes and gaslighting populations into thinking what they originally saw or heard was erroneous.  We are certainly in for some interesting times.

[Kitchen]

On 2/15/2023 at 6:11 PM, DaBoot said:

Any job doing sales and paperwork, watch out.. big corporations are cornering the market from real estate to car buying.  With AI and EDI. All smart companies Will remove middle management, paper pushers and supervisors are obsolete. A computer will track your phone usage , keystrokes, and eye engagement on the job and grade you accordingly.

 Jobs created will be serving the computer overlords, repair techs, robotic building. 

 

As a mentor recently told me, websites dont make sales, people make sales.  I also feel that it would just as true to say, AI's dont make sales, people make sales.  

I know this from experience.  You can make cold calls all you want and get your work in front of someone, but actually shaking their hand and BSing of the recent game is far far better at getting them to sign on the line that is dotted.  

FYI, cold calls still go a long way, especially today when no one wants to make any. 

[DaBoot]

8 hours ago, Kitchen said:

As a mentor recently told me, websites dont make sales, people make sales.  I also feel that it would just as true to say, AI's dont make sales, people make sales.  

Those are baby boomer ideas.When the new generation of tech raised kids come into the workforce and into power, they don’t want your human interaction. They don’t believe your word and a handshake mean anything. 
already most car dealership do not haggle,price and profit margins are fixed.(caravan and carmax)Tesla doesn’t even have them. They are coming for real estate next.(open door, Redfin). Those aren’t sales people, I bought my new car, already knew what I wanted, and went to pick it up.
i am in manufacturing, I don’t really need a tool sales rep, or a material sales rep…  ( already know a few that were fired).the corporations are partnering up together, diversifying into those fields by buying those companies and making our own stuff. Wait for 10 years from now….

[Corylax18]

4 minutes ago, DaBoot said:

They don’t believe your word and a handshake mean anything.

Or have learned from example that it Definitely doesn't mean anything.

I get what you're saying about not needing a tool rep, etc. I walk into a home depot knowing more about what I need than anybody working there. The last thing I want is some burnout traying to tell me what I want. But most people aren't that way, they want to be told, they don't want the responsibility of making a decision. Let alone the effort required to inform your self enough to make the decision. For those people the AI overlords cant come fast enough. 

[KnightsAnole]

Like him, hate him, distrust him- but you’d be a fool to not listen to him.
 

Think he is wrong? He might be. Personally, I think he’s a bit of an alarmist (but with good reason) and is hugely invested in his own AI projects slanting his perspective and pitch. Most of what he sais in these clips are widely agreed upon, except for his timelines, which seem very ambitious and geared towards attracting investors.

Go find a person working in the AI field that backs up your thinking, if you don’t find one, guess what, it’s time time expand your horizons. Do the research yourself, make up your own mind and don’t be lazy. Think this a Republican or Democrat issue? -How’s the hopium smoking.

This debate that AI will eventually be able to replace all jobs is not really a point of conjecture in the field any longer. It’s a matter of when. The primary point of conjecture in the AI field, right now, is whether or not it is possible to create sentient life from machinery.

…There goes that exponential curve again…

[KnightsAnole]

Nice segway to this vid, Demis is widely expected to be a future Nobel prize winner for intelligence breakthroughs. Well done presentation:

I believe, the only thing we have to fear, is the fear of ourselves.

[SigmundChurchill]

I remember when colonoscopies were done under light sedation, given by the gastroenterologists.  But the patients moved around too much, making it more likely for them to miss lesions in the colon.  So the gastroenterologists started using anesthesiologists to give deep sedation so the patients would stay still for the procedure.  Deep sedation can be dangerous if not done by an anesthesiologist.

At first, the insurance companies hated having to pay for a second doctor for the procedure, but they eventually got used to it.  All except Aetna.  They never got over it.  At first they said that they would no longer pay for an anesthesiologist, but the gastroenterologists started telling their patients that since they have Aetna, they will not get deep sedation.  The outcry was huge, so Aetna caved in and continued to pay for an anesthesiologist.  

But that wasn't the end of it for Aetna.  They funded a company that was trying to build a smart machine that could give deep sedation controlled by the patient's vital signs.  After years of trials, the machine got the OK for use.  The company went bankrupt within a year, because no gastroenterologists trusted the machine enough to use it.  And rightly so.  If the machine got it wrong, and the patient stopped breathing, nobody in the room has the same qualifications as an anesthesiologist to save the patient.

[KnightsAnole]

15 hours ago, SigmundChurchill said:

I remember when colonoscopies were done under light sedation, given by the gastroenterologists.  But the patients moved around too much, making it more likely for them to miss lesions in the colon.  So the gastroenterologists started using anesthesiologists to give deep sedation so the patients would stay still for the procedure.  Deep sedation can be dangerous if not done by an anesthesiologist.

At first, the insurance companies hated having to pay for a second doctor for the procedure, but they eventually got used to it.  All except Aetna.  They never got over it.  At first they said that they would no longer pay for an anesthesiologist, but the gastroenterologists started telling their patients that since they have Aetna, they will not get deep sedation.  The outcry was huge, so Aetna caved in and continued to pay for an anesthesiologist.  

But that wasn't the end of it for Aetna.  They funded a company that was trying to build a smart machine that could give deep sedation controlled by the patient's vital signs.  After years of trials, the machine got the OK for use.  The company went bankrupt within a year, because no gastroenterologists trusted the machine enough to use it.  And rightly so.  If the machine got it wrong, and the patient stopped breathing, nobody in the room has the same qualifications as an anesthesiologist to save the patient.

Are you talking about the anesthesiology trials that were done with Watson in 2016? It’s completely different tech now. 

One of the benchmarks for creating a stable AGI is that it has the ability to perform at least 500 different tasks simultaneously. Already achieved by deep mind. The problem here is computing power, which increases at astounding rates.

There is no reason to think anesthesiology could not performed better than a human once it has the needed computational power and precise robotics. All of which we currently have but is too expensive for viability in the field. You can expect that price to fall.

 

 

[aulrone]

My opinion is really pessimistic, so don’t blame me! I think people have too much faith in humanity. We look at things and think of how we can improve this or automate that. We assume tech could fill this gap.

However, historically progress has never been driven by people sitting down and figuring out what’s best and doing it. It’s been done through politics, incentives, and motives outside of progress. People having jobs, making sure constituents are taken care of, and having an incentive to make money yourself will force job openings to remain available for people regardless of tech and capabilities of the person regardless of how little sense those positions make. Meaning, I don’t think much will change at all. Jobs will just take on different aspects but the nature will remain the same. An example I can think of is how we took away most cashiers at Walmarts in America but now there’s always two people standing around at the door, standing around self checkouts, and more people hanging around backrooms, still mostly not doing much.

[SigmundChurchill]

5 hours ago, KnightsAnole said:

Are you talking about the anesthesiology trials that were done with Watson in 2016? It’s completely different tech now. 

One of the benchmarks for creating a stable AGI is that it has the ability to perform at least 500 different tasks simultaneously. Already achieved by deep mind. The problem here is computing power, which increases at astounding rates.

There is no reason to think anesthesiology could not performed better than a human once it has the needed computational power and precise robotics. All of which we currently have but is too expensive for viability in the field. You can expect that price to fall.

 

 

I have no doubt that one day we will have fully functioning robots that can talk to patients, intubate patients, start arterial lines and central venous lines, administer drugs, give blood products, and do CPR when things go terribly wrong.  But I will be long retired and probably long dead before the prices fall enough to be a threat to my job. 😂

[KnightsAnole]

22 hours ago, SigmundChurchill said:

I have no doubt that one day we will have fully functioning robots that can talk to patients, intubate patients, start arterial lines and central venous lines, administer drugs, give blood products, and do CPR when things go terribly wrong.  But I will be long retired and probably long dead before the prices fall enough to be a threat to my job. 😂

Yes, some of this will be largely avoided by some generations. Most 20 year olds will have to think about it more carefully. Won’t happen all at once. Like old age, It will be an accelerating creep.

*But thanks for exemplifying the reason this generation hates boomers.*

On 2/20/2023 at 4:35 AM, aulrone said:

My opinion is really pessimistic, so don’t blame me! I think people have too much faith in humanity. We look at things and think of how we can improve this or automate that. We assume tech could fill this gap.

However, historically progress has never been driven by people sitting down and figuring out what’s best and doing it. It’s been done through politics, incentives, and motives outside of progress. People having jobs, making sure constituents are taken care of, and having an incentive to make money yourself will force job openings to remain available for people regardless of tech and capabilities of the person regardless of how little sense those positions make. Meaning, I don’t think much will change at all. Jobs will just take on different aspects but the nature will remain the same. An example I can think of is how we took away most cashiers at Walmarts in America but now there’s always two people standing around at the door, standing around self checkouts, and more people hanging around backrooms, still mostly not doing much.

It’s a huge dilemna we should be thinking about. If the answer to your boss and his shareholders, is whether or not your job can be accomplished better for less money- There is no question…

The definition of a “job” might change, the reality won’t, only in a societal manner.….for better or worse.

[Bill Hayes]

I'm hoping for an Alicia Vikander robot like on Ex Machina.  😍

[KnightsAnole]

11 hours ago, Bill Hayes said:

I'm hoping for an Alicia Vikander robot like on Ex Machina.  😍

I’m hoping for a faster economy of scale, I’d like two.😍😍

[SigmundChurchill]

23 hours ago, KnightsAnole said:

Yes, some of this will be largely avoided by some generations. Most 20 year olds will have to think about it more carefully. Won’t happen all at once. Like old age, It will be an accelerating creep.

*But thanks for exemplifying the reason this generation hates boomers.*

 

I’m not a boomer, but I’m sure Gen X will be next in line for the hate, because why would anyone take responsibility for  their own problems?  Every generation has its hurdles to jump.

Get off my lawn you whiny little bastards.😂

[KnightsAnole]

3 minutes ago, SigmundChurchill said:

I’m not a boomer, but I’m sure Gen X will be next in line for the hate, because why would anyone take responsibility for  their own problems?

Get off my lawn you whiny little bastards.😂

Didn’t say you were, but you are profoundly capable of expressing the root of their discontent..

[SigmundChurchill]

2 minutes ago, KnightsAnole said:

Didn’t say you were, but you are profoundly capable of expressing the root of their discontent..

I’m not sure this is the place for this discussion, but the root of their discontent is their entitlement. 

Are you triggered by the fact that AI will not be affecting me, or is it that I won’t be, somehow, stopping progress so that it doesn’t affect future generations?

Every generation has its hurdles to jump and its mountains to climb.  Adapt and evolve with the times and you will be fine.  Don’t, and you won’t.

[KnightsAnole]

4 minutes ago, SigmundChurchill said:

Are you triggered by the fact that AI will not be affecting me, or is it that I won’t be, somehow, stopping progress so that it doesn’t affect future generations?

I believe, it is you who have been triggered sir. 
 

 

6 minutes ago, SigmundChurchill said:

Every generation has its hurdles to jump and its mountains to climb.  Adapt and evolve with the times and you will be fine.  Don’t, and you won’t.

That’s the smartest thing you’ve said yet.  For what it’s worth, you’re the only regular Cohiba smoker I respect.

[KnightsAnole]

The recent real progress in AI, people seem to be missing here, wasn’t made with Watson or the even more well known AlphaGo, it was made with AlphaZero that came after AlphaGo and was a whole new approach to creating AI.

Instead of of front loading the systems with a bunch of data, as with AlphaGo, they only relied on learning algorithms and then exposed the computer to data in AlphaZero. Like a child, is born, exposed to data, and then builds it world, the computer is basically doing the same thing over redundancy upon redundancy of neural networks than were built from models of the human brain. Almost overnight became superior to AlphaGo in every way. This was proven out by the next project, which was protein folding. AlphaFold solved this universally considered, impossible task which puts the human genome project in an  infinitesimal small scale, took about 6 months. Then went on to solve and catalogue every protein in the human body, 2 weeks,  and is now working on cataloging ever protein on Earth.

The point, is not that we now know every possible manner of protein folding, it’s that AI technology took another, almost incomprehensible leap. That was achieved in 2021. 
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robtoews/2021/10/03/alphafold-is-the-most-important-achievement-in-ai-ever/?sh=764900eb6e0a

Right now, AI technology is hitting that exponential part of the curve where it begins to become more and more difficult to not only keep up with, but also process, the implications of what’s being developed.

[Fuzz]

14 hours ago, Bill Hayes said:

I'm hoping for an Alicia Vikander robot like on Ex Machina.  😍

Unfortunately, we got this creepy android first.

[KnightsAnole]

 

[Nevrknow]

Bourbon talking here: am I the only one thinking the Elmer glue eating kids are about to reach their pinnacle? " Yes I'm going to kill off humanity but my machine is perfect! " followed by childish giggles and screams? Having no idea their machine will be weaponized by the military  to do what they do. Who am I kidding, DARPA is probably backing this thing. Please GOD take me before it happens. And AFTER I smoke my last great cigar! 😁

[KnightsAnole]

9 hours ago, Nevrknow said:

Bourbon talking here: am I the only one thinking the Elmer glue eating kids are about to reach their pinnacle? " Yes I'm going to kill off humanity but my machine is perfect! " followed by childish giggles and screams? Having no idea their machine will be weaponized by the military  to do what they do. Who am I kidding, DARPA is probably backing this thing. Please GOD take me before it happens. And AFTER I smoke my last great cigar! 😁

Nope, i think its totally possible. But, It is also inevitable that we will found out. I think it would be naive to not at least consider Ray carefully when predicting the future.