Your predictions December 2023: Comp!

[El Presidente]

This thread will close end January to be dug up last week December 2023. Box of cigars to the outstanding Nostradamus among us 

Your picks to the 5 following 

 

Ukraine. 

What will the Ukrainian situation look like in December 2023?

 

Crypto

The Crypto world in general with a reference to Bitcoin come December 2023? 

 

Inflation 

All the big money is on inflation coming down in 2023 almost as fast as it went up. Are they right? Answer in reference to your country as to where you see the headline rate come December 2023. 

 

Tesla/Twitter/Elon

What will the situation be in December 2023? They are all intertwined.....or are they? Taylor Swift "Shake it off" or........

 

Habanos 

CF Champions?Geniuses? What will their world look like in December 2023? What will the major plays be this year? 

[Chas.Alpha]

1st instinct is usually the best:

Ukraine- Putin and his ego will exact a fearsome vengeance on the Russian soldiers (and Ukrainian civilians) for his ill-thought out failure. Fearing another Stalinist regime, the Russians send him to the corn field.

The Crypto era is dead. Bitcoin goes back to $900 each, as those that possessed millions will realize that they are worthless. NFT goes the same way, with suckers hoping to trade them for a couple of Mickey Mantle baseball cards.

Inflation was tied to supply chain issues, coupled with the "speculators." The speculators are also heavy into Bitcoin. There will be plenty of slightly used trophy wives on the market come this time next year...

Elon Musk: A South African tried to follow the lead of an Australian and influence world politics with bags of money. Rupert Murdoch spent years building up his media empire in order to do just that. Elon wasn't willing to wait, instead pouring 44 Thousand Million dollars to buy an internet toy. Nobody seems to care about his new plaything and have moved on. The Tesla stockholders seem less than amused, as well. Elon is worth +/- 35 billion after selling major shares in Tesla.

The 2024 tobacco was trashed during hurricane Ian. My guess is that pickings will be slim and barely decent come '23-'24. 

Major Plays: HSA reaches out to ex-pats in Nicaragua for wrapper tobacco.

Rob starts putting triple bands on Nudies and selling them in fancy boxes.

CAH 04/01/23

 

[Cjake75]

First off Ukraine issue will still be in limbo. Nothing gained, nothing loss except resources, money, life, and power. 
 

crypto…. Same as it has. No one had trust in something unless you can touch it. I still don’t see it being implemented on a large scale. 
 

Inflation will still be high. USA politics won’t let it come down. Waist too much money just like I on cigars!  It’s also good business and everyone has raised rates so now it’s the new norm!

Elon is a genius!? May be, but the man knows business and how to make money.  If he has a pocket full of secrets and lets them out it could trend really well for humans or it could go really bad.  I think he intends to do well for human civilization as a whole.  He will still be relevant because of his big pockets and no filter. 
 

Cigar industry as a whole… if the weather is good and the sun is just right, everything will correct itself.  Just don’t flood the market with a bunch of garbage.  
 

BTW I am three rye whiskies in when I wrote this so it’s kind of like a memory!!!! 🤣

 

[benfica_77]

Ukraine. 

Sadly the war will be continuing...Russia is getting sneaky using Drones from it's allies which is nibbling away at key infrastructure. I expect the US/EU to provide more aerial training as well as more air / missile defence equipment. The only way it stops is if China intervenes and tells Russia to stop which it wont or if Putin croaks which would be awesome but he's harder to take down than your average A$$hole communist prick....he doesn't have cancer as media was alluding too. I think ukraine will keep pushing russia back and in December they will have gained most of their territory back but not crimea region. This will mean casualties on both sides sadly. Death which is unnecessary. 

Crypto

Crypto will continue to crap the bed.....NFTs are finally being seen as scams and they are intertwined with crypto. I could see another couple legs down...it's currently in the last year down 60% and I would anticipate another 30-40% and priced around 10k per bitcoin. 

Inflation 

Inflation will continue to be high for at least Q1 and Q2 of 2023 with it hopefully levelling off and then dipping in the end of the year. Food costs, logistics, and energy will continue to drive inflation from dropping as fast as people want. In canada i expect to hover around 4% which is better than the current 7%...bank of Canada is projecting 3% which is seems too optimistic in my books. 

Tesla/Twitter/Elon

Tesla stock price is still inflated in comparison to its revenue and profits.  Tesla stock price will be heavily correlated to the S&P 500, i think it will be a generally flat year for both with a possibility of a modest increase. Raw material costs are going to keep profits from increasing too much and should be relatively close to the 2022 13B in gross profit...i would say max 15B for 2023. Twitter is f$cK3d with a capital F their ad revenue will continue to leave, the $8 blue check mark won't make a dent in their debt and I expect Elon to step down at the end of the year or in 2024 when it's haemorrhaging too much money for him to keep running it. He will sell it at a discount in 2024 to a hedge fund. 

Habanos 

Habanos SA will continue delusional and will continue to increase prices until supply world wide in Brick and Mortars begin to fill up again. They will not recognize their massive F up with Trinidad and cigars will gather dust on shelves. They will never admit they are wrong and won't change things for now. I expect tight supply and sadly sub-par cigar quality in the second half of the year (rolled in the first half of the year) due to brain drain, quality of leaf etc. When word gets out of this I think supply will begin increasing drastically and in 2024 changes will need to be made and hopefully in the upper managed of Habanos S.A. 

I will add one more...I expect the 2023 Nudies batch to kick a$$ and be in high demand. 

[DaBoot]

2023 will be:

Ukraine- 50 Billion from the US piggy bank of advanced weaponry holds off total invasion and cease fire signed. Time to pick up the pieces and media never to mention Ukraine again.

Bitcoin and crypto- 30% pullback as people need real money to buy goods such as food, water, and those ever increasing energy costs. Bye bye 

inflation—USA-  can it get worse?? So high already the cronies will celebrate a 3-4% increase.

Elon- tired of so much news about 1 person. Tesla will realize they have competition for raw materials and supply chain issues, and the cars are dumb. Twitter- keep releasing those corruption files and Elon might go missing 🙄. But the company will not lose as much money as they did the past 2 years.

habanos- man I wish I had good news here, but I see a terrible year, stock nowhere to be found. Plain packaging might be the normal boxes by Dec. HSA will report best revenue year ever

will be a fun roller coaster year for sure. Live life, love life 

[JohnS]

Ukraine. 

The Ukrainian situation isn't as 'black-and-white' as the media portrays it in the West. It's not a simple 'good guys-bad guys' scenario. The fact is, if China were supplying weapons to Canada or Mexico I can 110% assure you that the Unites States would counter that move. I mean, Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 anyone?

Ukraine cannot win this war but Russia can continue to look bad in an extended long-term military stalemate-type conflict. What I think will occur in 2023 is that the Ukrainians will initiate negotiations with the Russians to come to some form of peace terms.

 

Crypto

Crypto will not disappear. As long as it is susceptible to making large fluctuations up and down there will always be people greedy enough to be willing to bet on it. In 2023 though, I don't see it returning to its record levels though.

 

Inflation 

Inflationary pressure will remain but it will not be as bad as early 2022. In my country for example, the Reserve Bank of Australia has made eight successive monthly increases in the banking rate to counter inflation to December 2022. In 2023 I think they will make 2 to 4 more and leave it at that.

 

Tesla/Twitter/Elon

Elon Musk will step back from his Twitter presence and pay more attention to his core business, Tesla. I think Musk will lose money on both these businesses in 2023.

 

Habanos 

Stocks will continue to be low, but they may not be as low as 2022. In other words, if there is an increase in production it can only be minimal because the crops will not be the problem, the lack of labour resources will be. A record number of people have left Cuba since the Covid-19 pandemic crisis began and I expect this will continue.

I think Habanos S.A will continue to rely on big sellers like the Partagas Serie D No.4, Montecristo No.2 and No.4. The Cohiba brand will go up in price again and it will continue to sell. On the other hand, I believe H.S.A will make a call on the Trinidad brand and prices will adjust down to reflect the sharp fall in demand ever since prices were doubled for this marca.

 

[Jackdani7401]

Ukraine: I think this will continue through 2023. Putin is too proud to quit, or enter into negotiations. 
Crypto: Huge up and down swings will continue and this will end the year down 10%-15% from where it started. 
Inflation: This will drop a little as the lending rates drop. A contributor to the increase was the demand for more money for an entry level job. The year will end at about 5%-8%
Tesla/Twitter/Elon: Pride will play another huge role here. Both Tesla and Twitter will continue to slide in stock price. Elon won’t admit he made a mistake, he’ll just get quite and quit causing a ruckus and hope other media outlets just forget about him. 
Habanos: This is following the world of overpriced and under produced whiskey. Production will be kept low so prices can remain high. The experienced palate will go elsewhere, but HSA doesn’t care because for every 1 person who swears them off, there are 20 noobs waiting to get in and are happy to pay whatever price they ask. Quality will at least remain high for 2023 and into Q1 2024…then it will slide, but prices will not go backwards. 

[El Presidente]

Ukraine. 

Settlement August 2023. West will slow support and force Ukraine's hand. 

 

Crypto

Wild first quarter. Thinning of the heard. Bitcoin comes through relatively unscathed and ends year 15% above the level of January 2023.

 

Inflation 

Wages inlfation manages to keep headline level in Oz at just above 4%

 

Tesla/Twitter/Elon

One of the great own goals in commercial world history. Books will be written, movies made.

Elon puts Twitter under professional control while introducing a swath of excellent add ons. Meanwhile the world are slapped out of their trance on Tesla and wake up to a stupidly overvalued company facing mulitple global issues. Sales dry up to the green elite. Other prestige manufacturers undercut him. The Chinese take the low hanging fruit. 

Elon needs to raise funds August 2023 to save the empire. 

 

Habanos 

Unoffcially royaly screwed. The rest of the NC world has stolen their lollies by end 2023. 

Officially.... they have had a record year with record profits from record turnover. 

[gormag38]

Ukraine: By the end of 2023 there will be no big changes. The west will move on with their lives and support/tv publicity will begin to dwindle. Putin may try and make some advances but will have little success in doing so. 

Cryto: We continue to see some topsy turvy earnings. Bitcoin will be the most stable of the bunch and end the year on a 5% increase. 

Inflation: in the US we will see inflation SLOWLY come down. It will settle around 4-5%

Elon (twitter and tesla): he will eventually become less and less involved in Twitter and not be apart of the day to day. Both stock prices for tesla and twitter will be up and down and end the year slightly up. 

Habanos: Implements another price increase. RP remains scarce and the internet masses continue to buy despite the lofty prices. They will state record profits and record productivity despite the hurricane and fire damages to crops. 

[Islandboy]

I don’t know about all this stuff, but 2023 is the year I get my LDL level back down <130, women become the most influential force globally for social reform, and Eli Tomac takes the crown in the inaugural Super Motocross championship series, with Ken Roczen coming in second. Chase Sexton would have been crowned champion, but he’s gonna end up out of the running due to injury.

[Meklown]

Trying to do this without reading others' opinions so that I'm not influenced 

Ukraine. 

I think there will be an effective stalemate. More equipment and support to be given by the West to Ukraine but Russia will still occupy parts and no agreement to be reached by the end of year

Crypto

Crypto will remain volatile throughout the year. Remain depressed through the year but Bitcoin will still gradually recover in price once the "risk-off rush" eases off. US$25k end of year

Inflation 

Inflation to decrease as compared to this year (I'm in the UK) but will still remain above the headline target. Predicting it to gradually ease off but remain stubbornly at 4%

Tesla/Twitter/Elon

What can I say? I'm a fan of his genius though not always his antics. Tesla to get back on track but will not achieve the same overinflated prices like this year. Musk will figure out a clearer picture and direction that Twitter is to be taking and will at the same time be bashed by regulatory issues

Habanos 

Geniuses. As much as I hate their moves as a person who has been largely priced out but the boxes have been moving as fast as they have been supplied. No shortage of demand at this price level and it won't ease off. Supply will still remain depressed. The exception in my eyes is Trinidad which will see stock building up on shelves

[Ken Gargett]

Ukraine. 

west gets bored but ukraine digs in and continues to fight. enough support from the west allows them to continue that fight. putin looks more and more isolated and insane and, whether through 'natural causes like the 23 oligarchs' or the generals having had a gutful, does not get to see 2024. no one mourns. if it happens early enough this year, eventual wobbly settlement which leaves things as they were but russia does keep crimea. only difference is a large number of dead thanks to this piece of lunacy. putin is not remembered fondly. 

 

 

Crypto

people are too stupid to let this go. more people get conned and bleat like harry at a coronation but get nowhere and there is as much sympathy for them as there is for the soon-to-be-no-longer-with-us putin. the regulators ride in to save the day and make a complete balls up of it, because they understand it even less than the rest of us. by the end of the year, a lot of it has disappeared, along with the gullible's investments, but a couple, such as bitcoin, wobble along. it finishes the year 30% down on the end at 2022. 

 

 

Inflation 

nervous central banks don't get it as right as they think they will. we (australia) have 3-4 more interest rate bumps before things start to level off. inflation ends the year marginally down on the 22 finish. in the states, they do better and it drops to about half to 2/3rds of the end of 22. 

 

Tesla/Twitter/Elon

i would put twitter in the who cares basket but you asked. chief twit stands back. it recovers somewhat but again, who cares. tesla gets musk's full attention and the share price finishes the year 20-30% up on the end of 22. meanwhile, more people than ever use twitter to make fun of musk. by the end of the year, musk is no longer on twitter. very few people notice. 

 

Habanos

by the end of the year, habanos is best known as the answer to a nostalgia trivia question. cigars go up even further. nudies win cigar aficiando's cigar of the year (okay, that is a long shot). basically, habanos is a mess. 

 

other fun for 2023 - 

france makes the final of another world cup, this time rugby, but get dudded by imbecilic ref'ing in the final and loses to the south pacific poms. the wallabies stumble through to the quarters, benefiting from the easiest draw since habanos (remember them?) released the monte Cs. but go no further. our dimwitted officials call this a great victory for the best team and coach ever to represent australia and are already talking up our chances for 2027. the coach bails and gets a much bigger contract in europe. 

bazball comes badly unstuck and the aussies keep the ashes, leading many to believe that there is indeed a god. 

the UK has less prime ministers in 23 than it had in 22 but that doesn't make anyone happy. elsewhere an unnamed former leader decides not to contest any forthcoming elections citing health excuses while ignoring reality and thereafter retreats to the golf course where he claims to have beaten rocket man's 18 holes in one in a single round (hey, lots of former leaders around the world enjoy golf and it is not my fault if you put two and two together and got some really great numbers). meanwhile, rocket man finally manages to land one of his missiles on south korea and chaos reigns. china takes this as the signal that it is okay to send lots of its navy on a taiwanese holiday, but holds off landing.  

harry and meghan, fresh from collecting their awards as the world's most revolting, entitled, self-obsessed people, spend the year complaining about the invasion of their privacy and also the fact that there were two days when they did not appear on a front page. previous world's worst brat, kyrios, immediately has a tanty and throws a racquet at an umpire and/or child but claims it was an accident or the wind or that he didn't do it, and that it is unfair that the world hates him given that he is clearly the smartest person to have ever lived as well as the greatest sportsman, but the award is not reversed and so kyrios resorts to kicking his dog, which he has named 'tomic'. 

and so much more...

[SpecialK]

7 hours ago, Islandboy said:

I don’t know about all this stuff, but 2023 is the year I get my LDL level back down <130, women become the most influential force globally for social reform, and Eli Tomac takes the crown in the inaugural Super Motocross championship series, with Ken Roczen coming in second. Chase Sexton would have been crowned champion, but he’s gonna end up out of the running due to injury.

I have Jason Anderson taking A1 as it's going to be a mudder I also like Aaron Plessinger in the top 3 this coming weekend anybody tall, as the short guys will have trouble in the muck.. But I'm with you on Eli taking it all this year..

[PuroDiario]

Ukraine. 

Ukraine will continue to push the all or nothing strategy, while western partners slowly push for compromise. US in a crossroad as India and others trade with Russia and Middle Eastern oil producers punch down on alliances and buy distressed or troubled western assets. So no one can compromise really. I think war pace slows but does not stop in 2023 albeit Putin critically ill or taken out by his own is a tail scenario that changes the above. 

 

Crypto

BTC, Ether, up ~20% up in the year. Other small utility projects also up. Storytelling about changing the world and all that other BS goes away. Regulation starts happening. Financial sponsors see equity appreciation in software and infra type private investments. It becomes another investable asset class on the company’s equity side with these company’s using blockchain as a tool not an end. CFTC oversees BTC/ETH and the like. All other stuff whatever the random name they decide SEC sees as security, oversees it and further cleans up the market further accelerating the above. Another couple of big name private companies go bust. 

 

Inflation 

US vs Europe inflation trend reversal continues. US in the mid 5s, EU in the 7-8s depending on country. Potential soft landing H2 if supply chain issues improve further.

 

Tesla/Twitter/Elon

Elon continues to drive Twittwer towards a theoretical cliff. Debt continues to trade down as creditors assess risk on its servicing. Elon buys back the debt and becomes absolute king like the Henry VIII he is. Actually starts showing some progress in “fixing” the platform. Users up, engagement up, ad dollars market recovers alongside inflation tamed down and market green shoots and people start believing. 
 

Tesla continues to deliver on orders, gives visibility on Cybertruck, and while never recovers all time highs again starts going up in the second half. It’s been beaten down so not sure ends up the year but stable if that a thing.

 

Habanos 

Announces a new brand to the style of “Camacho” or rebrands one of the cheap and cheerful or one of the forgotten ones to mitigate the loss of customers at that compelling price point for most (not saying we see it happen, we just see the announcement). Focuses on Cohiba as they are and Partagas and Monte and so staples. Less diverse, more boring, less differentiated blends across marcas. We all still buy, but buy less and less often, buy for love not for utility. They still post good numbers given Asia is huge and that should be enough for short to mid term. 

[Blakes]

Ukraine: 

Neocons will continue to push for more escalation. Russia takes the east. Poland eyes up the west.

 

Crypto: 

More pressure from Central Banks and Governments as move towards CBDC's. 

 

Inflation:

More.

 

Tesla/Twitter/Elon

God knows.

 

Habanos:

Less.

 

[SteveA]

Great thread. These predictions are fun to read. 

[LordAnubis]

Ukraine: don’t know. 

crypto: up 100% for the year rallying for 10x in 2024. 

inflation: 7%

Tesla: don’t know don’t care. It’s all hopes and dreams. Down another 50% from what it is today. 

CCs: collapse at the retail level. Why would a business purchase high price stock from a distributor that sits on the shelf and then needs to be discounted to get it to move. Might as well buy NCs for cheaper more availability and flip them. I think the habanos retailers who are in it for the love of it might continue. 80% will stop CCs. Cuba is on track for 40million cigars roughly going by stamp numbers. Habanos will post record profit which I believe. 2024 will be a big financial drop. 

[Ken Gargett]

can i add one?

dallas is in such a mess after being thrashed by the glorious washington back-ups (a 'replacements' sequel perhaps) that they are already one-and-done for the finals and they limp out in shame. coach sacked. tom brady, you are welcome. 

[Hypersomniac]

Ukraine. 

I don't see this war making it until December. Probably a ceasefire with Putin trying to save face. The longer this drags out, the worse things look for Putin. Russian soldiers already look unskilled and unready to fight. Sure, Russia can keep sending soldier after soldier out to the battlefield, but it will make no difference. It's hard to win a war when those doing the fighting don't want to be there. If Russia tries to escalate (i.e., seriously threaten a NATO country), Russia would certainly feel the wrath of the rest of the world; leaving all of us with scant time to enjoy our cigars, so smoke up.

Crypto

Bitcoin is down what, 60% in the past year? Bitcoin is going to continue its extreme volatility; probably reaching a low of $14,000, a high of $36,000, and settling around $29,000 come December. There is going to be 2 or 3 more scandals, but they probably won't rise quite to the level of the FTX scandal. Other coins will make waves, most will be pump and dumps. Regardless, the alt-coins will market themselves as a better bitcoin alternative due to lower energy needs for transactions. (All in USD)

Inflation 

Inflation will come down, but not by much. The US mark is currently 7.1%. There will be serious pressure on the Fed to get it down sub-5%, but I think the lowest it gets is 5.4%.

Tesla/Twitter/Elon

Tesla drops to 40% market share of EVs. However, the stock price rebounds to $240. Twitter remains a giant, since there is no better place to bitch about Elon and Twitter...than on Twitter. They are intertwined, but Elon will pull something out of his hat and stabilize the companies, albeit not at the previous highs the companies touted. Whether he decides to shut up for a while remains to be seen.

Habanos 

NCs continue growing the market share. People will continue to buy Cubans even at these outrageous prices, but the prices will continue pissing off a large swath of customers, which won't be good for Habanos in the long run. The deep pockets will eventually move to NCs as well, and once that happens, Habanos will finally realize chasing that clientele was a mistake. That won't happen within the next year, though.

[Grateful13]

2023:  I see mostly more of the same as in 2022.

Ukraine - Fraudulent western media can no longer keep up the facade of Ukraine resistance as the country continues to be completely destroyed.  Expect continued false flag hoax attempts like with the Nord pipeline bombing, the missile that Ukraine fired into Poland but blamed on Russia initially, and the "Ghost of Kyiv", to name a few.  But they all fail to bring other countries into the war.  A cease fire happens late summer with Russia taking whatever land they want to.  With the country destroyed, working age men slaughtered and birthing age women having already moved to western Europe or Middle East, the actor Zelensky is rightfully seen as a pariah for having destroyed his country.  But the oligarchs will be sufficiently enriched so at least they will be happy and he will remain a popular figure in Hollywood.

Crypto - Will roughly follow swings in the stock market.  BTC probably will bottom out Q1/Q2 around $10k-12k but will hit $25k again by the end of the year.  I'll say $22k-25k end of year price.  Bitcoin, Ether, and Monero (currently $17,201; $1,322; and $158.82 respectively) continue to be the big three with increasing market share and alt coins become increasingly irrelevant for the most part.  For reference, the S&P closed at 3,892.09 today.

Inflation - Governments will continue to manipulate data and change formulas so they can claim inflation is down to "only" around 5%.  Meanwhile, eggs will be $10 per dozen (almost there already), chicken breasts will be $4/lb (currently $2) and steaks will be up about 40%.

Elon - Tesla remains highly volatile (there was a ~20% swing between Friday's intraday lows and today's high) but stock price will end the year over $200 (closing price was $119.77 today).  This will really depend on just how bad global economic conditions get, as they are still selling a luxury product in a bear market.  At least the China factory should remain open for the most part.  Twitter is doing better than ever since Elon took over and will do even better as Elon and team figure out how to make money off targeted ads like Instagram.  Most of what we hear is just noise and hate because he's daring to go against the desired narrative and has been exposing rampant corruption and malfeasance.  The user numbers don't lie as they are currently at record levels.

Habanos - A continuation of 2022, higher prices and tight supply. Habanos products become increasingly bifurcated between cheap and cheerful sticks and high end products with the middle of the pack we all love becoming harder and harder to obtain.  I could be wrong about this as I'm not 100% sure if LCDH stores are generally more like local franchises or are mostly corporate/distributor owned, but I would expect some of the brick and mortar LCDH locations in Europe to close as the supply just isn't there to cover margins.

Bonus - Sudden deaths from heart ailments will be WAY up.  Everyone will know the reason but it will continue to be denied.

[Ken Gargett]

2 hours ago, Grateful13 said:

Ukraine - Fraudulent western media can no longer keep up the facade of Ukraine resistance as the country continues to be completely destroyed.  Expect continued false flag hoax attempts like with the Nord pipeline bombing, the missile that Ukraine fired into Poland but blamed on Russia initially, and the "Ghost of Kyiv", to name a few.  But they all fail to bring other countries into the war.  A cease fire happens late summer with Russia taking whatever land they want to.  With the country destroyed, working age men slaughtered and birthing age women having already moved to western Europe or Middle East, the actor Zelensky is rightfully seen as a pariah for having destroyed his country.  But the oligarchs will be sufficiently enriched so at least they will be happy and he will remain a popular figure in Hollywood.

 

leaving aside the "fraudulent western media" (so all the news agencies are in league to prevent the real story coming out? all the vision, interviews, reports are all false?- doesn't that seem just a little farfetched?), you think zelensky destroyed his country? or is in the process of doing so? the guy who has stood up for ukraine when it was invaded by russia? you are aware that it was russia who invaded ukraine without provocation and not the other way around or is that just more of that pesky fraudulent western media? out of interest, if russia or another country invaded the USA (you list it as your location - am i taking too big a leap to assume you are a citizen?) that you would expect, nay demand, your leader du jour to cave in and hand your country to russia (or whomsoever)? not to attempt to defend the country and it citizens? really? that is not really all that Churchillian of you. 

the Nord pipeline bombing - a false flag hoax attempt. my understanding is that as yet, there has been nothing definitive as to just who might have carried out the sabotage even if there are lots of theories and many point to some likely culprits. so vlad, it would appear you have evidence as to just who is responsible. care to share? i mean real evidence, not weird internet theories. 

my understanding is that in the usa, inflation is calculated based on changes to the CPI which is based on price adjustments to something like 60,000 to100,000 items from month to month. or something rather like that. may i ask how you calculate it? or do you really believe that for all these years, the many decades it has been calculated, there has been some conspiracy to hide the real numbers from everyone? 

it does seem that an awful lot of people are involved in an awful lot of cover-ups and conspiracies. hard to imagine that some of this might not have got out over the years. 

[Grateful13]

7 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

. 

my understanding is that in the usa, inflation is calculated based on changes to the CPI which is based on price adjustments to something like 60,000 to100,000 items from month to month. or something rather like that. may i ask how you calculate it? or do you really believe that for all these years, the many decades it has been calculated, there has been some conspiracy to hide the real numbers from everyone? 

. 

Yes, the products and weights to products in the calculation is constantly changing for CPI so they can claim lower inflation. This isn’t even hard to find out or discover and is not a conspiracy - it’s in the governments own website and is a widely known fact. 
 

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2022/methodology-changes-2022.htm

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/recent-upcoming-methodology-changes.htm

 

As for the rest, this isn’t a debate.  But you are way too old to be this naive about the pipeline. LOL

 

[Ken Gargett]

34 minutes ago, Grateful13 said:

Yes, the products and weights to products in the calculation is constantly changing for CPI so they can claim lower inflation. This isn’t even hard to find out or discover and is not a conspiracy - it’s in the governments own website and is a widely known fact. 
 

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2022/methodology-changes-2022.htm

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/recent-upcoming-methodology-changes.htm

 

As for the rest, this isn’t a debate.  But you are way too old to be this naive about the pipeline. LOL

 

am i to understand that by not a debate, you mean that there is no room for any alternate opinions as to what you stated? can you provide any evidence? 

[Thirdcoastwatch]

[joeypots]

 

Ukraine. 

Russia declares victory and withdraws from Ukraine.

 

Crypto

Crypto currency will still be traded, I have no idea about price. Blockchain technology, having gained recognition from the crypto phenomenon, will  become more popular as a secure way to use the internet for important tasks.

 

Inflation 

North East USA.  As interest rates normalize and logistics improve the rate  inflation will stop rising, if not decline.  

 

Tesla/Twitter/Elon

Who cares? I have no opinion on Twitter. I admire Musk’s business achievements, Tesla and Pay Pal  are fantastic stories. Never mind the stock price, Tesla will continue to be a major Auto manufacturer. His acquisition of Twitter, if he doesn’t wreck the business entirely, will be more fodder for critics of capitalism and the accumulation of vast wealth.

 

Habanos 

Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em.