another 16 Tons of Tobacco in Pinar del Rio gone

[El Presidente]

2 hours ago, Fugu said:

Yep, that’s right!

But I think, the crop tonnage is also around that figure I.e. roughly one T leaf (dried raw tobacco) per hectare, isn’t it?

I always thought it was a 1.6 factor. 

Where is Bijan when you need him 

[sageman]

3 hours ago, El Presidente said:

* I am sot sure how accurate the below is. 

 

 

 In 2019, crop production of tobacco in Cuba amounted to 61 thousand metric tons.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1079457/cuba-tobacco-production/#:~:text=In 2019%2C crop production of,registered in the previous year.

Pulled the same stat. Average looks to be low 30 metric tons per year. So you're probably looking anywhere from .075% to .17%. Demand isn't changing as we see on 24:24, so hypothetically we should see a price increase, albeit a small one, that small of a decrease shouldn't move the graph much.

[Bijan]

2 hours ago, Fugu said:

Yep, that’s right!

But I think, the crop tonnage is also around that figure I.e. roughly one T leaf (dried raw tobacco) per hectare, isn’t it?

I'm not an expert. Found two data points though:

https://passportandbaggage.com/tobacco-farming-in-cuba/

"We visited a 16 hectare farm owned by the Montesinos family. The farm plants, on average, 150,000 plants per year which equals approximately 6 tons of tobacco."

And CCW says 30,000 seedlings per hectare.

https://www.cubancigarwebsite.com/cigar/production

"Planting the Seedlings

The seedlings are planted into the prepared soil by hand. Around 30,000 seedlings are planted per hectare."

So sounds about right ballpark.

[Corylax18]

In decades past 50 tons wasn't unheard of, but its been closer to half that recently. I've seen numbers very similar to the below in multiple sources. The last harvest was probably the smallest in at least 25 years. Keep in mind, its the same story with Sugar, Potatoes, Pigs, Chickens, Milk, Etc. The entire system is collapsing. The Government is stealing from the farmers producing these items and using the money to build hotels, rather than things that would contribute to higher efficiency and more production. With out a steady flow of  funny money from tourists, Venezuela and Russia, its all falling apart. 

Cuba produced less sugar in the last cycle than they had since 1908, over a hundred years ago! So we can sit an bitch about tobacco shortages all we want, but many Cuban people struggle to even eat right now. The articles linked below are just from the last few months, they cant execute on anything, not even the simplest things. 

The harvest has fallen from 32,000 tons in 2017 to 25,800 in 2020 and will likely reach only 22,000 tons this season, he said.

https://havanatimes.org/news/cubas-worst-sugar-harvest/

https://havanatimes.org/features/pork-is-in-danger-of-extinction-on-cuban-tables/

https://havanatimes.org/features/cubas-potato-harvest-to-hit-record-lows-this-year/

https://havanatimes.org/features/cuba-sees-harvests-rot-in-the-fields/

[SMELTZ]

Maybe it's time to start a FOH Cuban Tobacco Farmer Relief Fund?

[rcarlson]

13 hours ago, Rhinoww said:

Thank you. 
 

I can only keep up w my piss and moan posts for so long😂

Good news?  Those Punch Punch coming your way are incredible.  

Otherwise, stay the course!  Don't let the optimists get you down.  

[Greenhorn2]

26 minutes ago, SMELTZ said:

Maybe it's time to start a FOH Cuban Tobacco Farmer Relief Fund?

The government will steal that too.

[J-Slay]

15 hours ago, Chibearsv said:

If that’s accurate, then .08%, which doesn’t sound significant except for the poor farmers that are directly affected.  I feel sorry for them. I know farmers here buy crop insurance for such calamities but I’m guessing something like that isn’t available in Cuba. 

I'm in Crop Insurance here in the U.S.  We have other governments contact our company all the time trying to get an insurance product like we have for their growers.  It's always the same answer.  It can't happen without the subsidy and full support of a robust federal government.  We've had some countries with robust economies reach out that you'd think could support or get a little something off of the ground.  Can't do it.  The liability is crazy.  Even with approximately 70% government subsidy, U.S. farmers pay in approximately $5 billion each year in premiums.