So here we are. Where to for the Cuban Cigar Industry?

[Puros Y Vino]

When the price increases were announced the first thing that came to mind was the Habanos is basically giving the NC makers an unintended boost.  Any NC maker with the resources should take this opportunity to expand their market share.  If they can make cigars that would appeal to the diehard CC smoker that's a "win".  It will take some crafty farming and blending to do so. To my eyes, CC and NC camps are mostly exclusive with only a small percentage of cigar smokers that dabble in both. CC's really never needed marketing as a result, whereas the NC world is heavy on marketing given how many competitors and brands there are out there.  Habanos' push to the luxury market has created an opening for them that they should capitalize on. 

On a personal note, my days of buying Cohiba and Trinidad are pretty much done.  And rather than explore NC's,  I'd prefer to sample more of the "cheaper" CC's.  There are already several Quinteros that I enjoy.  Maybe this is time to explore more RG, JLP, LFDC, Fonseca, etc.  Ever since I started smoking, I've been pretty aggressive with my buying and can comfortably smoke from my inventory for years to come without making a single purchase from this day forward. 

I am not well versed on the history of luxury brands. Maybe some had humble beginnings? Maybe they were always "high end" but something tells me, that once they hit luxury status, they rarely go backwards.  So if Habanos wants to be the cigar of multi-millionaires, oil barons with the odd despot thrown in , I can't see them going back. Not at least with Cohiba and Trinidad.

[99call]

21 minutes ago, Silverstix said:

I don't think we can compare a utility bill to cigars though - don't really have much of a choice but to pay that power bill (we will still complain though lol)....which for many means they have less to spend on something like cigars 

It was a poor analogy,  maybe the whisky market would have been a better comparison. 

When it all boils down, what i was trying to point to was that we seem to be much more accepting to have our pants pulled down by big business, but when it some rag tag bunch of commies, people seem to be taking an extra level of offence at the price hikes. 

A bit like if a mortgage broker breaks it to you that their putting and extra £600 on their commission, you go "oh well, what can I do, it's the current financial climate"

But if a sweat shop in Pakistan said,   we are going to have to put an extra £2 on every pair of trainers, it seems some would be thinking. "cheeky b******ds"

[Silverstix]

33 minutes ago, 99call said:

It was a poor analogy,  maybe the whisky market would have been a better comparison. 

When it all boils down, what i was trying to point to was that we seem to be much more accepting to have our pants pulled down by big business, but when it some rag tag bunch of commies, people seem to be taking an extra level of offence at the price hikes. 

A bit like if a Mortage Broker breaks it to you that their putting and extra £600 on their commission, you go "oh well, what can I do, it's the current financial climate"

But if a sweat shop in Pakistan said,   we are going to have to put an extra £2 on every pair of trainers, it seems some would be thinking. "cheeky b******ds"

I guess I just don't agree with that assessment, but that's ok we can agree to disagree.  I don't think anybody cares if Cuba is a communist country (remember HSA is 50% owned by a private business.)  I think people really only care about the costs and the optics of the cost increases which look absolutely awful here.  We just haven't seen big business jack up their prices this much this suddenly.  They haven't done so because 1) they manage their costs much better, 2) they have much greater access to a steady supply, and 3) they know that the consumers just won't (and can't) tolerate paying double for a product.  Businesses are always going to try to milk as much as they can, right?  It's a fine line, I guess we will see if people will continue to tolerate these prices.  We know consumers (myself included) will continue to complain

I think a good example is how you see many products are now slightly smaller but the price remained the same.  Ice cream companies realize that the cost of everything is going up, and people don't NEED ice cream, so a good portion of consumers aren't going to pay 20% more for their product.  In turn they reduce the size of the container and hold the price as tight as they can.  Price point is key, it's all most consumers look at - they don't realize the cost per ounce is 20% higher, they just know they paid the same price for that container.  I am looking at more 10-ct boxes these days - yes the price per stick is higher but it feels more manageable spending $170 vs. spending $325.  Businesses have to get creative because you're 100% right these are some crazy times right now, and luxury items are usually the first to go.  So many boats at my marina this year haven't been put in the water, it's crazy.  When times get tough, you know how it goes.

There's also the competition factor - there's only 1 "company" churning out Cuban cigars.  Are they underestimating the competition from the NC world? It will be interesting to see, that's for sure!

[Chibearsv]

10 hours ago, 99call said:

I think it's interesting, whilst it's unfortunate HSA have found themselves up against a wall/placed themselves there.    It's interesting how we perceive the difference between getting price hiked by a capitalist country, and a communist country.      When it's a capitalist country, we just go. "ah well.... the market is just having its way"...    when a communist country does it,   theres some sort of indignant outrage,   like a servant stealing the cutlery. 

Whilst I find it upsetting that Cuban cigars are more expensive,    it's nowhere near the upset caused by sick profiteers gouging on prices for medical equipment during the pandemic.   Yet for many this is just hardball capitalism. and completely fine/understandable 

I don't recall seeing angry posts that were communist specific regarding price increases for cigars.  I think any anger that's been posted on this forum is just as it relates to cigar prices in general.  Makes sense since it's a cigar forum.  

[gustavehenne]

I went (fairly) deep on the Cohibas that I love (Lanceros, CCE, Esplendidos, Siglo VI and III) so I've got time to sit this one out for a bit. Still gutted I only managed to get one box of Trinidad Fundadores and zero Siglo V so the likelihood of me dropping some coin to get a few more boxes of these is high. As for the others, no freaking way.

I've said it before but I absolutely love Padron 1926 (Maduro), Fuente Opus X and Ashton ESG. Whilst I would be gutted if HSA didn't do a u-turn in the future and bring the prices of Cohiba and Trinidad down to a reasonable level I'll simply start smoking more extra premium NC cigars. As a rough comparison point - Padron 1926 Maduro No. 1 is c$500 and Esplendidos will be around $2300.

No. Freaking. Way.

[99call]

46 minutes ago, Chibearsv said:

I'm don't recall seeing angry posts that were communist specific regarding price increases for cigars.  I think any anger that's been posted on this forum is just as it relates to cigar prices in general.  Makes sense since it's a cigar forum.  

It's the inference more than any direct comment.  i.e what are they thinking?  can it hold?     I'm not suggesting we shouldn't question their current business model and the changes they've made,  rather how many big industry price hikes do we just take on the chin and absorb without any question.    

For my own part I see what HSA are doing to be completely in step with what everyone else seems to be doing, i.e push it until you find the price ceiling, then take the foot off the gas........the latter part doesn't seem to have happened as yet. 

[PigFish]

6 hours ago, 99call said:

I think it's interesting, whilst it's unfortunate HSA have found themselves up against a wall/placed themselves there.    It's interesting how we perceive the difference between getting price hiked by a capitalist country, and a communist country.      When it's a capitalist country, we just go. "ah well.... the market is just having its way"...    when a communist country does it,   theres some sort of indignant outrage,   like a servant stealing the cutlery. 

Whilst I find it upsetting that Cuban cigars are more expensive,    it's nowhere near the upset caused by sick profiteers gouging on prices for medical equipment during the pandemic.   Yet for many this is just hardball capitalism. and completely fine/understandable 

Totally disagree with you mate.

I cannot speak for others here, but there are many people who say enough is enough regardless of who makes the product. Capitalism through completion keeps most industries in check around my country. We have monopolies still certainly... government for one, media and some high tech.

When the airlines price themselves (or are priced by market forces) above the threshold of pain, people stop flying. When beef is too high, people move to chicken and pork... We do the same here to our capitalism comrades all the time.

Me, I am rooting for Tabacuba to fail. I have been for a decade. I was way... way... out in front of this pack. They have been destroying the traditional concept of the cigar, cigar smoking, smoking evolution for decades now. I hope they have to pay the piper! I am glad some people are pissed! I hope more get there.

Look, I do not want this to go awry... but your analogy is power companies!!! At least 50% of the population everywhere knew that the greens were going to destroy the energy sector as we know it, sooner or later. That is not capitalism. That is a minority ruling the energy sector via fiat. And for those who voted for the fools running the show... you, me, we... get what we deserve.

Go to one of our gas pumps and see who is raping the end user. It is not the driller or the refiner. It is those in the capital domed buildings collecting the taxes. While the refiner makes a few cents a gallon, in my state, the government (collectively) is taking a buck or more! ... and the roads still suck... and the government still wants more money to fix them!

Cuba has been in a sweet spot for the blame game for decades now. A lot on this forum over the years. People have been giving them a pass and protecting them (typically our resident socialists) for years and years. Blame America...  blame the embargo... I have read and seen it all. Their economic and political system is a shambles. That is because it is build on the ideas of losers, thugs and charity cases. 

 

This is likely going to lose everyone, but I will pitch it. Look at what is happening with the CC. You happy? Look at what your dependence on a communist country with socialist/communist leadership has gotten you. F'd.

Now look abroad. What has Europe gotten by being lead by the greens... and other socialist groups/philosophies. Dependent on Russia for oil (another good reliable communist run country). And what do they always do with the money.... ? Expand the empire!

Look at America... who runs it currently? The greens and other socialists... Where has it gotten us? Same boat. I paid $6.99 a gallon for fuel in the Peoplez Republik of Kalifornia (the capital by the way...) yesterday.

A plainer lesson on capitalism vs. socialism right down to your favorite hobby. One needs to be blind not to see the correlation.

Cheers! -R

[99call]

37 minutes ago, PigFish said:

A plainer lesson on capitalism vs. socialism right down to your favorite hobby. One needs to be blind not to see the correlation.

Cheers! -R

You can make,  and always do your correlations......it doesn't make them truthful Ray.    

If you think the disgusting corruption that has gone on under the conservative party, selling off huge swathes of London, and being one of the biggest money laundering centres of the world is a socialist operation!!!!! then I feel genuinely sorry for you,  that's utterly risible

You always try and paint me to be an apologist for communist/socialist regimes and it's just not based in reality.    I think Cuba is a failed enterprise, A ruthless dictatorship, where decent people are treated like dirt.   However in the same breath not every single socialist principle in the world is the route of all evil.   The NHS in the UK, is one of the most popular sources of national pride, and has Its foundation in socialist principles.    It's just not a topic where there are goodies and badies.   I do respect that you live in a country where this is a largely polarised issue, but thats not the case in the rest of the world. 

Russia is a kleptocracy, Putin is a thief plain and simple.  he's got nothing to do with communism, and any suggestion he does, is just out of date, lazy, cold war rhetoric. 

I respect lots of what you have to say on a variety of other topics Ray,   but with regard to accepting this "lesson". I'll pass

 

[BrightonCorgi]

This will a large negative impact to their distributors worldwide.  Will have an even bigger negative impact to LCDH franchises; they'll start closing up for concentrate on NC's instead.   Tightening tobacco laws, inflation, soaring prices compared to NC's will make loyal customer bitter or resentful. 

Brick and motar's will just go elsewhere to stock their shelves.  Box buyers will introduce more NC's into their rotation and maybe even like them more.  NC's are open to blends that Habanos cannot do.

 

[MrBirdman]

4 hours ago, PigFish said:

Totally disagree with you mate.

I cannot speak for others here, but there are many people who say enough is enough regardless of who makes the product. Capitalism through completion keeps most industries in check around my country. We have monopolies still certainly... government for one, media and some high tech.

When the airlines price themselves (or are priced by market forces) above the threshold of pain, people stop flying. When beef is too high, people move to chicken and pork... We do the same here to our capitalism comrades all the time.

Me, I am rooting for Tabacuba to fail. I have been for a decade. I was way... way... out in front of this pack. They have been destroying the traditional concept of the cigar, cigar smoking, smoking evolution for decades now. I hope they have to pay the piper! I am glad some people are pissed! I hope more get there.

Look, I do not want this to go awry... but your analogy is power companies!!! At least 50% of the population everywhere knew that the greens were going to destroy the energy sector as we know it, sooner or later. That is not capitalism. That is a minority ruling the energy sector via fiat. And for those who voted for the fools running the show... you, me, we... get what we deserve.

Go to one of our gas pumps and see who is raping the end user. It is not the driller or the refiner. It is those in the capital domed buildings collecting the taxes. While the refiner makes a few cents a gallon, in my state, the government (collectively) is taking a buck or more! ... and the roads still suck... and the government still wants more money to fix them!

Cuba has been in a sweet spot for the blame game for decades now. A lot on this forum over the years. People have been giving them a pass and protecting them (typically our resident socialists) for years and years. Blame America...  blame the embargo... I have read and seen it all. Their economic and political system is a shambles. That is because it is build on the ideas of losers, thugs and charity cases. 

 

This is likely going to lose everyone, but I will pitch it. Look at what is happening with the CC. You happy? Look at what your dependence on a communist country with socialist/communist leadership has gotten you. F'd.

Now look abroad. What has Europe gotten by being lead by the greens... and other socialist groups/philosophies. Dependent on Russia for oil (another good reliable communist run country). And what do they always do with the money.... ? Expand the empire!

Look at America... who runs it currently? The greens and other socialists... Where has it gotten us? Same boat. I paid $6.99 a gallon for fuel in the Peoplez Republik of Kalifornia (the capital by the way...) yesterday.

A plainer lesson on capitalism vs. socialism right down to your favorite hobby. One needs to be blind not to see the correlation.

Cheers! -R

Ray there is so much wrong in this post I fear the only way to properly address it is in a friendly chat over a cigar on Zoom! 

[Hammer Smokin']

14 hours ago, Hoepssa said:

 We've been trained to love Cuban cigars, not born to love them.

You can say that about everything then. 

[benfica_77]

I started my cigar journey with only NCs very few tickled me too many pepper bombs that were so off putting. 

The moment i started getting quarter boxes here and sampling CCs I knew this was it. Like others here have said i'm done buying Cohiba and Trini which is a shame because those are def 2 of my top 5 marcas. I can't control what HSA does so I will adapt. 

I have enough for about 10-12 years might get stretched with kids on the horizon. I think NCs have a golden opportunity...make something comparable to CC combined with the NC consistency in construction and I can switch over but I don't think it will happen. If NCs could they would have already done it. I expect that I will be smoking the more value CC brands....currently having an awesome JL2....also the choix supreme is heavily under-rated. There's options. 

I'm also curious to try farm rolls like @Corylax18 suggested. That's a wise approach. HSA will soon realize that the CC market isn't a perfectly inelastic demand curve i.e. they can't hike all they want. We will just have to adapt gents. 

[JC67]

I am open to purchasing quality NCs through FOH.

[El Presidente]

To be fair, excluding Cohiba/Trinidad and a few specialties, prices are now roughly in line with premium NC. You could argue that is probably where they always  should have been. 

I consider the Cohiba play to be "Brave" but possibly successful. 

I consider the Trinidad play to be suicidal.  Without intervention, the brand is now dead. 

The optics of the the whole play are awful. 

 

[Blakes]

2 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

To be fair, excluding Cohiba/Trinidad and a few specialties, prices are now roughly in line with premium NC. You could argue that is probably where they always  should have been. 

I consider the Cohiba play to be "Brave" but possibly successful. 

I consider the Trinidad play to be suicidal.  Without intervention, the brand is now dead. 

The optics of the the whole play is awful. 

 

They should have left Trini alone as a peace offering for taking Cohiba away.  

[Hemclas]

I feel like #2 should have Stupid as an option. 😂

[Miguel Gracias]

1 hour ago, Blakes said:

They should have left Trini alone as a peace offering for taking Cohiba away.  

I feel same, I thought price i saw in january was expensive at LCDH in carribean... I flew down to the same shop again as soon as I heard the crazy price hike and bought 5 boxes of trinidad and reserved 4 more boxes with price-locked.

[BlueRidgeFly]

Stating the obvious, but I think if Cuba can't supply enough cigars then there really isn't much else to discuss. We'll pay through the nose due to official price hikes or otherwise, and/or enough people will quit buying and eventually even the supply-demand curve some. Looks like it will be a while before much changes though.

 

[LordAnubis]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I consider the Trinidad play to be suicidal.  Without intervention, the brand is now dead. 

 You said it ain’t going anywhere bro! 

[Çnote]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

To be fair, excluding Cohiba/Trinidad and a few specialties, prices are now roughly in line with premium NC. You could argue that is probably where they always  should have been. 

The more I shop NC and look at 2424, this is about right. CC minutos and PC are still the better value IMHO, but it's alot of sticker shock, especially as brand name NC have not seen the same increases. 

[El Presidente]

49 minutes ago, LordAnubis said:

 You said it ain’t going anywhere bro! 

Dead in terms of sales.

They will need to relaunch the relaunch 

[SCgarman]

I love Monte4 but at $300usd/box? F it. I'm outta the game. I'll burn my inventory a couple a week and when they're gone I'm done. FTW!

[HopeUgood]

22 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

I love Monte4 but at $300usd/box? F it. I'm outta the game. I'll burn my inventory a couple a week and when they're gone I'm done. FTW!

Can I ask how long your current stash will last your smoking a couple of cigars a week?  My plan is similar but to add about 3-4 boxes a year of particular cigars (unless prices keep climbing at the current rates). 

[sageman]

New to Cubans, want to explore them more. It’s hard to create a plan to explore the marcas and find which I prefer when I have to race to randomly pick an item or two as my main buying option. I just bought 3 NC boxes because I can read about them, make a guess if I’ll like them and go that route. I hope sometime soon it gets easier to explore CC’s! Demand is high and supply is low, but demand can’t stay high if new people won’t join the market as consumers because of the roadblocks to attaining them. 

[Glass Half Full]

Well, I have no special insights.  I do love the "twang" of CC's and will always enjoy them (at least as long as my supply lasts) ...but I must say that I've bought and smoked more NC's in the last month than ever before.  Some (I guess most) are a disappointment, though that's also true of the inconsistencies of CC's (absent the twang), ...and a select few NC's are remarkably enjoyable in their own right.  

I can't help but compare it to what happened to California wines during the 1990's and since.  I used to love California wines but then many became so crazy overpriced compared to wonderful flavors created in other areas, ...and I came to love (opened my mind to) the many of wonderful wines created elsewhere, and now I rarely if ever buy California product.  (It's been two decades or more since I've sought out a Napa wine.)  Different profiles of course, but people learn to appreciate value, which isn't necessarily defined by price (to me) -- it's defined by what you enjoy relative to the cost.  And there are some awesome $20-30 wines out there. 

Plus, I can't help but agree with some previous posters that, while I love, love the flavor of aged Cohiba's, I can't see myself posting that enjoyment again on the "Daily Smoke."  I agree with others' comments:  It starts to become conspicuous consumption (whereas it used to be just the sheer enjoyment of the flavor -- one of the things I loved about this site).  

The price increases have taken a lot of the fun out of CC's for me, sadly. 

There will always be those who celebrate flavors over all, and I appreciate that.  I just don't like the idea of celebrating something other than that.