So here we are. Where to for the Cuban Cigar Industry?

[El Presidente]

 

HSA has made some big market shift  plays in the 2^nd quarter of 2022 that have left most of us somewhere along the 5 stages of grief. 

Check out the poll. 

Looking at some of the key factors leads to a little concern

• Production down
• Planting down
• Farmer unrest 
• brain drains. 

Tabacuba handles the above. HSA handles marketing and the poll should give you a fair idea of how they are faring. 

I suspect that European and Asian Divans will be 40/60 (facings) Cuban and Non Cuban within 36 months. The NC producers have a marvelous opportunity (maybe once in a lifetime) to if not wrestle dominance in those markets then parity. In these markets, the retailers faith has been shaken and the margins on NC far better. Will they ever put all their eggs in the same basket again?

HSA are  unlikely to change their pricing policy over the next 36 months while production capacity remains low. Still, you never know as it all feels very "House of Cards" right now.

Maybe they are geniuses.

 I am always glass half full......but I am not putting any money down on the previous statement being correct 

 

 

[Hammer Smokin']

Cut back on smoking Cuban cigars. I can't smoke Non Cuban cigars.

 

- while "can't" isn't accurate per say, I feel "won't" or "highly prefer not to" are better fits. if things don't get more affordable I'll simply slow down and eventually stop smoking cigars. All good things come to an end.

[LordAnubis]

To me the challenge for CCs is that they are now above NC prices, and a lot of people who used to buy cubans cos they were cheaper, will now just get NCs. THe CC loyalist now have a reason to look elsewhere whthere that is succesful pursuit or not is based on personal unique circumstances. I don't find any NC a suitable replacement to a CC. i find alot of NCs are good, but at the half way mark i find im ditching them either out of boredom or the flavour becomes unpleasant. What i am seeing (dipping my toe in) is that there are a few 5-8 dollar NCs that arent too bad overall. I think that market will go bananas for NCs. I dont think the 20+ dollar padron/davidoff market will gain much share of the evacuating CC market.

Habanos have made a killer call on Cohiba i think. I mean who wouldnt want to work half as much and charge three times as much? I think the absolute next level from Habanos would be to cut a few brands, create a new brand with the blend of Cohiba,, a range of 3 or 4 sizes, but 2/3 the price of the old cohiba pricing. Keep the middle class smoking what they like, keep the high rollers paying premiums for the band. 

[Blakes]

8 hours ago, El Presidente said:

The NC producers have a marvelous opportunity (maybe once in a lifetime) to if not wrestle dominance in those markets then parity. In these markets, the retailers faith has been shaken and the margins on NC far better. Will they ever put all their eggs in the same basket again?

A decade of smoking between 1 - 3 cigars a day I've probably only ever smoked about a dozen or two NC's. Up until now I've never felt the need to give them much time as the ones I have tried never did anything for me, and CC's were always reasonable. Now I'll be exploring NC's more seriously - HSA is literally opening the door and inviting in its competitors. 

7 hours ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

Cut back on smoking Cuban cigars. I can't smoke Non Cuban cigars.

 

- while "can't" isn't accurate per say, I feel "won't" or "highly prefer not to" are better fits. if things don't get more affordable I'll simply slow down and eventually stop smoking cigars. All good things come to an end.

 This seems the most likely outcome for me also. 

[Corylax18]

I learned years ago that HSA and Tabacuba have nothing to contribute to the cigar industry. So my responses to this survey come from a very jaded perspective. Both "companies" are leaches on the system, tabacuba especially. The best Cuban cigars don't come from HSA, they come directly from people in the industry. Farmers, rollers, artisans, people that care. 

HSA and Tabacuba have been active detriments to Cuban Cigars for a while now, this is just the most recent example. 

I drastically slowed my box purchases around 2017 and haven't looked back. I probably only have a couple dozen boxes with 18-21 dates and that number won't grow much now. Thats all been backfilled with custom and farm roll purchases and I couldn't be happier. The money goes where it should, the cigars are priced better and I receive a superior, more consistent  product. 

HSA can keep them at this point, I've already found a superior alternative. 

[HDGSN]

It is too damn similar to the bourbon fad. I got to enjoy a quality product at normal prices and amass a modest collection, but now the price, scarcity, and consumer competition make me want to step away. I did that with bourbon and started to dive back to Cubans instead. Now they are both in the crap.

Anger/Depression

I’m just going to quit buying as much. I’m done with NCs other than the rarest one offs. I’ll just smoke what I have, try to grab what might still be a value and feel sad about what could have been.

I’d like to have a network like @Corylax18. I agree that customs have been some of the best I’ve had from the past 5 years.

[Rhinoww]

I’m pissed. 
 

Plain and simple.Pissed at Habanos. 
 

 

[Notsocleaver]

I've probably already purchased my last box of Cuban cigars. I have 5-10 years of stock on hand at my current smoking rate. When that is done, I'll reassess, a lot can happen in that amount of time. However, its really tempting to sell boxes to fund other hobbies now that the pleasure per dollar formula in my head is spitting out vastly different results than it did a couple of years ago. I'm not mad or sad, I'm just moving on.

[BoliDan]

1 hour ago, Corylax18 said:

Trays all been backfield with custom and farm roll purchases and I couldn't be happier.

That's good way to go about it. I can't afford to make that many trips to have that many customs, but if you can that sounds like the way to go. I personally have enough habanos that I don't need to buy any for at least a decade, so I'll wait out the storm.

[Duxnutz]

47 minutes ago, Rhinoww said:

I’m pissed. 
 

Plain and simple.Pissed at Habanos. 
 

 

Ditto. I enjoy quite a few cigars that aren’t mainstream; RG, SLR, occasional Sancho Panzaas as well as the usual Upmanns and Montecristos. If you put aside the fact that SLR and SP have had their vitolas discontinued to heck I just don’t see much value in more than $10/$250 a box for RG PCs. I think someone said the price level of $15 a robusto was where the comfort level is but I think that’s just a way to normalize $350+ Hoyo Ep 2’s. 
 

So I will likely stop purchasing much and smoke down what I’ve got. Probably sell some too. It’s very similar to bourbon, some expensive bottle got too collectible and simply can’t justify opening and consuming. 
 

 

[TheDonTX]

I just go with the flow. I enjoy the ride and the experience. Just happy to be here. I am very very thankful to Rob and the discussions here. 2 1/2 years ago I got into CC’s. Rob was telling us this whole time about supply issues, prices, planting and crop failures etc. I took that as a sign to buy up stock just in case and I am forever grateful @El Presidente. At my current rate I have enough to last 6 years at least. Most were purchased here when prices were reasonable. Even snagged a box of sir winnies (not here) when I had no idea what I was doing lol. My fomo started 2 years ago. I have all the Cohiba’s and Lusi’s I need all thanks to Rob and this forum. The only cc’s I dont have that I want are espys and fundies. But I am done buying. I physically cant pull myself to buy them knowing the prices were so much lower 6 months ago. It is what it is. Life could be worse. Sit back and relax and just enjoy the experience. Markets go up and they go down. Im alive to watch it all 🙏🏼

[HerrHonaker]

3 hours ago, HDGSN said:

It is too damn similar to the bourbon fad.

Agree. I've been drinking bourbon long enough to remember PVW bottles being readily available at retail. Now every nitwit who used to consider Jack Daniel's "good bourbon" is on "the hunt" and emptying out every liquor store within a respective three-state radius. I've given up on it and the racket it's become. 

[GoodStix]

Haven’t purchased Nudies yet, but definitely a buyer when they’re available again.  Like many others here no doubt, I’m very much hoping they’re a good alternative to HSA who appears to have given many of us the middle finger.  Like to return the gesture ; )  Yes I’ll still buy CCs, love ‘em.  But less, given HSA’s new pricing.

[Cigarsmoker81]

3. How (if any) will the HSA announcement change your Cuban cigar purchasing habits.
 

Biggest change would be me not buying Trinidad and Cohiba ( two of my fav Marcas) 

otherwise I’ll continue to smoke Cubans as I don’t think ncs are comparable.

[Hoepssa]

 We've been trained to love Cuban cigars, not born to love them.

Time to give NC more chances, but are they ready? Maybe not. Without CC lovers they already sold more cigars than before, most hot items are out of stock too.

 

 

[Homer]

I am not angry and I have accepted that business owners can do what ever they want. I have full boxes of des deux, medail dor 2 etc and I don’t have to buy anything.

I work hard for my money and don’t want to give it to chinese. I just can not justify to buy the same cigars for much higher prices than before. 

 

[RDB]

1 hour ago, Cigarsmoker81 said:

Biggest change would be me not buying Trinidad and Cohiba ( two of my fav Marcas) 

Snap. Do I like paying more for the regular production Montes & Partagas that I love? No, but I can still justify those at the new prices and will still buy. But I’m not going to pay USD1500 for a box of Coros. I’m sure there are plenty who will.

[99call]

I think it's interesting, whilst it's unfortunate HSA have found themselves up against a wall/placed themselves there.    It's interesting how we perceive the difference between getting price hiked by a capitalist country, and a communist country.      When it's a capitalist country, we just go. "ah well.... the market is just having its way"...    when a communist country does it,   theres some sort of indignant outrage,   like a servant stealing the cutlery. 

Whilst I find it upsetting that Cuban cigars are more expensive,    it's nowhere near the upset caused by sick profiteers gouging on prices for medical equipment during the pandemic.   Yet for many this is just hardball capitalism. and completely fine/understandable 

[Corylax18]

2 hours ago, 99call said:

I think it's interesting, whilst it's unfortunate HSA have found themselves up against a wall/placed themselves there.    It's interesting how we perceive the difference between getting price hiked by a capitalist country, and a communist country.      When it's a capitalist country, we just go. "ah well.... the market is just having its way"...    when a communist country does it,   theres some sort of indignant outrage,   like a servant stealing the cutlery. 

Whilst I find it upsetting that Cuban cigars are more expensive,    it's nowhere near the upset caused by sick profiteers gouging on prices for medical equipment during the pandemic.   Yet for many this is just hardball capitalism. and completely fine/understandable 

In all fairness, this is a Cuban Cigar website, not a medical device malpractice forum. They changed the url to FOH.com, not festivus.com, so I don't think this is where we should be airing all our grievances. I sure don't want to wade through a bunch of threads full of random complaints. 

I completely agree we should be viewing both "systems" through the same lense. If gas prices had double or tripled over night, I'd be just as upset about that too. Fortunately, they've only gone up 35-50%! Haha

[99call]

3 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

In all fairness, this is a Cuban Cigar website, not a medical device malpractice forum. They changed the url to FOH.com, not festivus.com, so I don't think this is where we should be airing all our grievances. I sure don't want to wade through a bunch of threads full of random complaints. 

I completely agree we should be viewing both "systems" through the same lense. If gas prices had double or tripled over night, I'd be just as upset about that too. Fortunately, they've only gone up 35-50%! Haha

Hmm I think your reaction is misplaced.  This is a cigar forum, but there are no rules suggesting I can't draw similarities to other markets

All that I was saying is that there seems (to me at least) a weird difference between how we react to being gouged by some industries and not others.  All i'm saying is that the forces at play seem to me to be exactly the same. i.e there is less of something and those that have it, want to see how high a premium they can charge for it. 

We will have to agree to disagree,  but to me there does seem to be an undertone in the reaction to HSA i.e that they are taking the piss.         All that I was saying is that this is happening all over the world, with all sorts of products, and reaction to those price hikes, seems to be slightly more understanding/accepting 

[Silverstix]

I am very unhappy with the price increases AND the thin supply, I hope this fails miserably for HSA.  They pay their people pennies, can't perform with any consistency (other than consistently inconsistent) and now have the stones to charge what they do, brave is a kind adjective.  The current pricing is not sustainable for me, just not an option.  For me, NC's aren't comparable at all to CC's - plain and simple I just don't enjoy NC's nearly as much.  I do have a decent backlog, so I will have mix in some of my NC's and limit myself to maybe buying 3 or 4 CC boxes a year of my go-to smokes just to keep a supply on hand.  This is a hobby that I have no problem dropping, it's not worth sacrificing my savings account for cigars.

 

10 hours ago, 99call said:

I think it's interesting, whilst it's unfortunate HSA have found themselves up against a wall/placed themselves there.    It's interesting how we perceive the difference between getting price hiked by a capitalist country, and a communist country.      When it's a capitalist country, we just go. "ah well.... the market is just having its way"...    when a communist country does it,   theres some sort of indignant outrage,   like a servant stealing the cutlery. 

Whilst I find it upsetting that Cuban cigars are more expensive,    it's nowhere near the upset caused by sick profiteers gouging on prices for medical equipment during the pandemic.   Yet for many this is just hardball capitalism. and completely fine/understandable 

I don't think it has anything to do with communism or capitalism - I think it's about a company suddenly jacking up their prices for the same exact product.  If Walmart or McDonald's suddenly marked up their products 25%, 50%, 100%, I think the world would react the same way....."this is BS what more am I getting for my money?  I'll just go to Wendy's and spend a fraction of the price - it may not be the same as McDonald's but McDonald's definitely isn't *THAT* good."

[99call]

2 minutes ago, Silverstix said:

I think it's about a company suddenly jacking up their prices for the same exact product

We are going through a period of time where the majority of industries around the world are reflecting price increases, due to Ukraine, Covid, Green levies etc etc.

If HSA has been hit by productivity and not been able to secure the amount of cigars rolled through Covid,  I think it's completely understandable that when in a mess they are trying to dig themselves out with the only trump card they're holding.   i.e try and make the same amount of cash with less cigars. 

I'm not defending HSA, or the mess they've gotten themselves into.    What I'm saying is that when power companies say "your bill are going up 100% due to market forces and international affairs"  we kind of go "oh well, shit happens". but when something similar happens from HSA, we have some strange personal take on it, like someone is trying to swindle us. 

 

[anacostiakat]

Let me just chime in and say I don't care much who the gouger is when I am the gougee!      Believe prices will get worse before they get better.  I try to practice edumacated consumerism.  So hikes to marcas like Cohiba and Trini don't confront me.  Will I smoke more NC's?  Not much.  Will I probably smoke less?  Already am.  Within reason!  Heh....

[Blakes]

16 minutes ago, 99call said:

What I'm saying is that when power companies say "your bill are going up 100% due to market forces and international affairs"  we kind of go "oh well, shit happens". but when something similar happens from HSA, we have some strange personal take on it, like someone is trying to swindle us. 

Unless one plans to live off grid or there is political upheaval there is not much one can do in relation to the power companies. None of us 'need' to smoke cigars. 

[Silverstix]

33 minutes ago, 99call said:

We are going through a period of time where the majority of industries around the world are reflecting price increases, due to Ukraine, Covid, Green levies etc etc.

If HSA has been hit by productivity and not been able to secure the amount of cigars rolled through Covid,  I think it's completely understandable that when in a mess they are trying to dig themselves out with the only trump card they're holding.   i.e try and make the same amount of cash with less cigars. 

I'm not defending HSA, or the mess they've gotten themselves into.    What I'm saying is that when power companies say "your bill are going up 100% due to market forces and international affairs"  we kind of go "oh well, shit happens". but when something similar happens from HSA, we have some strange personal take on it, like someone is trying to swindle us. 

 

Oh no I hear you, HSA has to do what they have to do, although I think they saw what was going on in the secondary market and may be overplaying their hand a bit - you couldn't tell by the way things sell out here though! Ha ha

I don't think we can compare a utility bill to cigars though - don't really have much of a choice but to pay that power bill (we will still complain though lol)....which for many means they have less to spend on something like cigars