Have we reached cigarmageddon?

[Rhinoww]

Talk amongst yourselves. 

[rcarlson]

Yes.

[Rhinoww]

3 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

Yes.

Don’t you get paid by the word?

[rcarlson]

That one costs more than others.  

[Corylax18]

If you think its bad now, Gird your Loins. Cuba doesnt have a plan to even start making things better, or the resources to execute a plan if they did have one. This recent price increase is a clear sign that HSA's new ownership has accepted this as fact. Rather than figure out how to increase the production and quality coming from Tabacuba, the plan is clearly to shrink demand to whatever measly level of production the island can muster. 

Prepare your self for prices to continue increasing as the quality and quantity of cigars produced continues declining. The entire country is falling apart, the cigar industry included. 

[Frinkiac7]

4 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

If you think its bad now, Gird your Loins. Cuba doesnt have a plan to even start making things better, or the resources to execute a plan if they did have one. This recent price increase is a clear sign that HSA's new ownership has accepted this as fact. Rather than figure out how to increase the production and quality coming from HSA, the plan is clearly to shrink demand to whatever measly level of production the island can muster. 

Prepare your self for prices to continue increasing as the quality and quantity of cigars produced continues declining. The entire country is falling apart, the cigar industry included. 

So you're saying that we should NOT jettison all of our old boxes of cigars?

[Corylax18]

Just now, Frinkiac7 said:

So you're saying that we should NOT jettison all of our old boxes of cigars?

I completely understand people selling of boxes of Cohiba when each stick now sells for close to what an entire box used to. Beyond that, I would suggest keeping your stash under lock and key. 😄

[Rhinoww]

My gut is that smaller format sticks will be available and some of the more popular larger format sticks will be around at a premium. The chances of regularly seeing Dip 2’s or even SLR Regios though. Good luck. 

[Puros Y Vino]

Yes. The price hikes, especially on the Cohiba and Trinidad front has a lot of people on other cigar forums bummed out.  Those who are new to the hobby cannot comprehend what it will cost them to even try even 1 cigar from any of those two marcas.  There's a feeling that Habanos has abandoned what was a loyal customer base. Those among us who have been frequent buyers and building up their stock will probably be ok.  Those who are relatively new are now talking about what NC's they need to try since Cubans are priced out of their range. 

Habanos is a business, whether it's run like it or not. And it has decided to throw itself fully into the luxury market believing that they're going to carry the torch forward.  A nice box of Cohibas to sock away in each of their new supercars, Walk-in humidors in their mansions, yachts, etc.  What is to be determined is how many of these new, uber-wealthy customers are really cigar smokers or enjoy the status of smoking an expensive, exclusive Cohiba or Trinidad.  Will they tire of it? Or will they collect Cuban cigars because they can and it makes them look good?  Who knows. My guess is that this path cannot be undone. I think Habanos will lose a lot of customers.  They will gain many that will pay more.  I also believe the pressures from all the governments that adopted plain packaging has basically played their hands for them. These are no longer "friendly" customers worth keeping.  The amount of taxes on tobacco in Canada for instance or not going down, they are increasing.  Habanos is thinking they should put the effort in nations that have less roadblocks not more.  In some parts of the world, there will be a cigar boom. In many parts, a bust.  Should these new markets deflate over time, they will be hard pressed to get their old customers back.  The only possible, saving grace would be if the US market was directly available to them.  But that's not likely to happen either. 

[Edicion]

It will be interesting to see how this situation plays out short and long-term.

[Homer]

Habanos SA is owned by Cubans and Chinese. We won't get any reliable sales data from them. 

How would you react if the price of BMW would increase 100-200% and for the new price you get the same old car + extra BMW sticker that you can put where ever you like?

You would probably say:

 

[El Presidente]

Don't fall for the chicken little syndrome.

Every boom is followed by a bust 😉

 

[yossie]

40 minutes ago, Homer said:

How would you react if the price of BMW would increase 100-200% and for the new price you get the same old car + extra BMW sticker that you can put where ever you like?

BMW at least works/functions. 😏

[Duxnutz]

5 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Don't fall for the chicken little syndrome.

Every boom is followed by a bust 😉

I wonder just how close Cuba is to becoming a failed state. The rapid increase in prices may be a last ditch effort to satiate a $$$ sales quota to the Chinese investors.

 

7 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

Yes. The price hikes, especially on the Cohiba and Trinidad front has a lot of people on other cigar forums bummed out.  Those who are new to the hobby cannot comprehend what it will cost them to even try even 1 cigar from any of those two marcas.  There's a feeling that Habanos has abandoned what was a loyal customer base. Those among us who have been frequent buyers and building up their stock will probably be ok.  Those who are relatively new are now talking about what NC's they need to try since Cubans are priced out of their range. 

Habanos is a business, whether it's run like it or not. And it has decided to throw itself fully into the luxury market believing that they're going to carry the torch forward.  A nice box of Cohibas to sock away in each of their new supercars, Walk-in humidors in their mansions, yachts, etc.  What is to be determined is how many of these new, uber-wealthy customers are really cigar smokers or enjoy the status of smoking an expensive, exclusive Cohiba or Trinidad.  Will they tire of it? Or will they collect Cuban cigars because they can and it makes them look good?  Who knows. My guess is that this path cannot be undone. I think Habanos will lose a lot of customers.  They will gain many that will pay more.  I also believe the pressures from all the governments that adopted plain packaging has basically played their hands for them. These are no longer "friendly" customers worth keeping.  The amount of taxes on tobacco in Canada for instance or not going down, they are increasing.  Habanos is thinking they should put the effort in nations that have less roadblocks not more.  In some parts of the world, there will be a cigar boom. In many parts, a bust.  Should these new markets deflate over time, they will be hard pressed to get their old customers back.  The only possible, saving grace would be if the US market was directly available to them.  But that's not likely to happen either. 

THIS is what bums me out the most. Whilst not as active as I have been in the past (2 yr old), I consider myself a Cuban cigar enthusiast and love picking up singles of new releases or different year cigars and trying them - even though I have a stock of at least several thousand. 
 

It’s kinda like the ever reducing size of consumer packaging; example bourbon bottles trending smaller, chips/crisps in smaller bags etc. Kind of pisses off your regular consumer and makes them feel like they’re getting ripped off. Luxury goods are defined by some status symbol and a value of feeling good using their products. This may work with Cohiba but in other instances (like an email I recently received for $600 Monty #2s) it just makes you think that HAbanos S.A. thinks their bread and butter cigar enthusiast is a schmuck. 

[TobaccoRoad]

"...with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high water mark — that place where the wave finally broke, and rolled back.”

Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

[joeypots]

Not yet. Seems to be that recent production is very good. People will pay for good cigars. Lots. We'll have a bonafide cigarmegeddon if Habanos sells second rate Cohiba, Trinidad, and lesser yet not inexpencive cigars at exorbitant prices. 

[anacostiakat]

I too think it is going to be interesting seeing where this goes.  Can the average Joe weather the storm.  

Have not acquired any Cohiba or Trini in quite a while.  This new marketing strategy is crazy man.  Crazy!  

[El Presidente]

3 minutes ago, anacostiakat said:

I too think it is going to be interesting seeing where this goes.  Can the average Joe weather the storm.  

Have not acquired any Cohiba or Trini in quite a while.  This new marketing strategy is crazy man.  Crazy!  

They don't care about the "average joe". 

To their mind there are plenty of other cigars in their portfolio and if they are too expensive, go smoke NC. 

It is a very pointed strategy. Maybe it is working as anecdotally the impact of the price increases on global sales has been zero. 

That is bad news indeed. Early days yet however. 

The stock shortages are no doubt plastering over any normal price rise impact. 

 

 

 

[Cigar Surgeon]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

They don't care about the "average joe". 

To their mind there are plenty of other cigars in their portfolio and if they are too expensive, go smoke NC. 

It is a very pointed strategy. Maybe it is working as anecdotally the impact of the price increases on global sales has been zero. 

That is bad news indeed. Early days yet however. 

The stock shortages are no doubt plastering over any normal price rise impact. 

I do wonder if they "put off" a die hard Cuban cigar smoker, what the likelihood is that they would come back in the future, assuming pricing came back down to planet Earth.

[Puros Y Vino]

Just now, Cigar Surgeon said:

I do wonder if they "put off" a die hard Cuban cigar smoker, what the likelihood is that they would come back in the future, assuming pricing came back down to planet Earth.

I think many would come back.  Prices would have to be reasonable.  But we all know, prices always go up for pretty much any luxury item.  They NEVER come down. 

[Tstew75]

1 hour ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

I do wonder if they "put off" a die hard Cuban cigar smoker, what the likelihood is that they would come back in the future, assuming pricing came back down to planet Earth.

Some of us will defect forever...some will be waiting in the wings for when the crash happens & laugh in glee as we restock our humidors with needed CCs at reasonable prices. I fall in the later camp, I'll be ready...

[Shaunster]

I think you'll be waiting forever if you expect prices to fall. This will be like the wine world now, think top burgundy and bordeaux chateau, the prices only go one way.

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[DaBoot]

I don’t think of this as a business decision. These are gov’t controlled actors who need “x” amount of dollars to survive. Long term strategy does not, in my opinion, weight on any thought process. Survival now is the only thought.
 Thinking is “ we need 100million dollars, we have 1000 cohiba cigars.” Do the math. 
I enjoy Cuban tobacco over anything else. Period. But if I pay 50$ for a smoke, can I really relax and enjoy it? What if it was a dog rocket? Feeling relaxed? Plugged? Am I relaxing now? Toss it and grab another? 

[anacostiakat]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

They don't care about the "average joe". 

To their mind there are plenty of other cigars in their portfolio and if they are too expensive, go smoke NC. 

It is a very pointed strategy. Maybe it is working as anecdotally the impact of the price increases on global sales has been zero. 

That is bad news indeed. Early days yet however. 

The stock shortages are no doubt plastering over any normal price rise impact. 

 

 

 

Yea.  I keep thinking that there are plenty of countries outside of China that will struggle at best with these prices.  But maybe their thinking is that the impact will be picked up elsewhere.  Just seems like even China would have trouble with this.  

[MPS]

Prices only go up not down. In a year from now more people will wish they purchased at the current prices that they are now complaining about. Happens every time. I’m in the camp of smoke less but smoke better. I love your analogy to burgundy. How many people here are complaining about buying a box of Esplendidos when they would have no issue spending the same on a beautiful bottle of wine or scotch. The sky isn’t falling and Cuba isn’t folding. Habanos isn’t going to lose all of their customers they will just smoke different brands within the portfolio. Cohiba is a luxury it always was. In fact Cubans in general are a luxury. Now it’s just ultra luxury. No one is going anywhere. Im sorry but a box of Monte 2 is still extremely reasonable to purchase right here from Rob and it’s a million times better than any non Cuban cigar. It reminds me of election time here in the US when the liberals say they’re moving to Canada if the conservative candidate wins. They never go. 

43 minutes ago, Shaunster said:

I think you'll be waiting forever if you expect prices to fall. This will be like the wine world now, think top burgundy and bordeaux chateau, the prices only go one way.

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