Have we reached cigarmageddon?

[helix]

Now that cuban cigars are so pricey and quality controll unchanged or worse ,  is a couple or three bad cigrs in a box ok ? 

If you purchased a case of good wine (Ken approved vintage) and out of 12 one or two bottles were spoiled or leaking , undrinkable ,  would that be tolerated?

[El Presidente]

2 hours ago, SCgarman said:

Or...supply increases due to less people buying cigars. The anti-smoking sentiment is world wide now. Nobody in my immediate family will take my place when I drop dead. My 16 year old daughter tolerates my cigar hobby, but she would never in a million years be interested in smoking cigars. Pretty sure there are many more in my situation. 

The average age of cigar smokers would be in their late 30's. Naturally there will be region to region difference. The boom markets are also the youngest markets. 

In traditional CC markets, anti smoking sentiment has been in full throttle for 25+ years. Even in the worst of Cigar Nazi states (Oz/irleand/NZ/Sing etal, sales volumes have held up......and that is with plain packaging! I find it remarkable. 

[Tstew75]

I'm really surprised how many folks here are just plain giving up on CCs...it's really sad.

Never say die. Chasing this CC thing is a really fun & engaging thing for me, and short of me losing my job & going broke, I'll never give it up. There's still tons of (relative) CC deals to be had if you dig deep enough.

[El Presidente]

13 minutes ago, Tstew75 said:

I'm really surprised how many folks here are just plain giving up on CCs...it's really sad.

Never say die. Chasing this CC thing is a really fun & engaging thing for me, and short of me losing my job & going broke, I'll never give it up. There's still tons of (relative) CC deals to be had if you dig deep enough.

To be fair, a couple of markets have been hit very hard. Most of the rest have had just a small nudge of the needle. In those latter markets, things continue as per normal price wise (high) and sales haven't suffered to date. 

Spain and Cuba are done for the time being as cheap sources of supply. That largely turns off the global "cheap" tap. 

The true effects are smokescreened by the lack of suppy.   It is looking increasingly unlikely that supply will improve before 2024/25. 

Keeping that in mind, HSA really couldn't care about losing a significant % of clients to NC.  They factored it in. 

 

[DaBoot]

It is here. So many other crisis’ on the island, massive loss of skilled labor, people are worried about water, food, and heat. Also the govt worried about protesting and losing control of power … 

 I see china stepping in, Cuba owes a lot of money and goods to the ccp, and haven’t delivered. 
 2024/25 for normal stock on shelves… I say no way without massive intervention.  And luck 

[El Presidente]

17 minutes ago, DaBoot said:

 2024/25 for normal stock on shelves… I say no way without massive intervention.  And luck 

  "It is looking increasingly unlikely that supply will improve before 2024/25."

Under the current regime I don't think it will ever get back to 2019 levels. 

[SCgarman]

9 hours ago, Tstew75 said:

I'm really surprised how many folks here are just plain giving up on CCs...it's really sad.

Never say die. Chasing this CC thing is a really fun & engaging thing for me, and short of me losing my job & going broke, I'll never give it up. There's still tons of (relative) CC deals to be had if you dig deep enough.

All they have to do is lower boxes of Monte4 down to reality..$200-225usd/box. I'll buy plenty. 

 

9 hours ago, DaBoot said:

It is here. So many other crisis’ on the island, massive loss of skilled labor, people are worried about water, food, and heat. Also the govt worried about protesting and losing control of power … 

 I see china stepping in, Cuba owes a lot of money and goods to the ccp, and haven’t delivered. 
 2024/25 for normal stock on shelves… I say no way without massive intervention.  And luck 

Never say never. They make everything else the world needs, and some it doesn't. Train the rollers in China, send rotating crews to Havana to roll cigars and control the cigar industry. All the Cuban rollers can bolt to other countries, or sit home, or take up a new career. It will be a moot point.

[MrBirdman]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

 It is looking increasingly unlikely that supply will improve before 2024/25

I won’t believe there is any daylight on the horizon apropos supply until we hear tourists reporting rolling floors near full capacity. And nothing in the past two years has given us any reason to believe that will happen anytime soon, if ever. On the contrary, even with the pandemic easing, the situation in Cuba continues to deteriorate. 

At this point, it seems that the most likely best case scenario is a modest increase in production capacity enabling them to at least consistently stock the big sellers like D4. The worst case scenario (for cigar supply, not necessarily Cubans) is domestic unrest and/or a military coup that cut off supply entirely for a time. 

Bottom line: I doubt it will ever get significantly better, but it could definitely get much worse. 

[NSXCIGAR]

11 hours ago, Wookie said:

I bought a box of opus X torpedoes in 1996 for about $12 a stick, which was a lot back then.  The B&M owner looked at me and said, “you own em”.  They were fabulous.  I think they’ve gone downhill over the years, maybe due to overproduction? But I also think esplendidos and Lusitania were much better in the 1990s.  Maybe my taste buds are shot. 

For the record I was paying 175/box for monte #2 in Madrid in late 1990s. 

I think that would have been only a year after release (1995-1996). I would imagine pricing could have been about that (IIRC the Partagas 150th was around $12-15 each). But I also recall Opus X completely drying up very shortly after that. By the late 90s I didn't see them anywhere except Casinos and high-end steakhouses for $100 each. I then seem to remember pricing and availability improving around 2002-2004 as they started popping up on eBay back when they allowed tobacco as "box only" sales. They went back to about $10-15 each. 

And yes, this would have been about the time most DCs were around $10 and Monte 2 was $8-10 each. Most of the Fuente Hemingways and Anejos would have been around there as well. 

Of course Padron 1926 has been $25-30+ as long as I can remember.

[Wookie]

6 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I think that would have been only a year after release (1995-1996). I would imagine pricing could have been about that (IIRC the Partagas 150th was around $12-15 each). But I also recall Opus X completely drying up very shortly after that. By the late 90s I didn't see them anywhere except Casinos and high-end steakhouses for $100 each. I then seem to remember pricing and availability improving around 2002-2004 as they started popping up on eBay back when they allowed tobacco as "box only" sales. They went back to about $10-15 each. 

And yes, this would have been about the time most DCs were around $10 and Monte 2 was $8-10 each. Most of the Fuente Hemingways and Anejos would have been around there as well. 

Of course Padron 1926 has been $25-30+ as long as I can remember.

I couldn’t believe he sold me a whole box of opus at the time.  Other B&Ms at the time were limiting opus purchase to 2 sticks. And this was before the NC boutique revolution…I recall it being very difficult to find quality NC at the time.  

[Rhinoww]

Interesting to revisit this thread after about a year.

I’m still waiving my fist at HSA.

They don’t seem to care.

To the contrary, another price increase sent out yesterday that became effective immediately. Hard to see me buying much in the way of banded boxes except for special circumstances.

$12 for a PLPC (recent reseller email) I just smoked one. Nice, but not a $12 stick.  
Yet even with the prices going up supply continues to decrease. Look on Reddit and you will still see plenty of new CC smokers. It’s nuts to me, but get off my lawn HSA. They don’t care.

Soon I might might get bitter 😂

[havanaclub]

Interesting to revisit this thread after about a year.
I’m still waiving my fist at HSA.
They don’t seem to care.
To the contrary, another price increase sent out yesterday that became effective immediately. Hard to see me buying much in the way of banded boxes except for special circumstances.
$12 for a PLPC (recent reseller email) I just smoked one. Nice, but not a $12 stick.  
Yet even with the prices going up supply continues to decrease. Look on Reddit and you will still see plenty of new CC smokers. It’s nuts to me, but get off my lawn HSA. They don’t care.
Soon I might might get bitter

Yeah it’s crazy to me new CC smokers buying into this madness.
I just saw the prices today and wow. I don’t think I will buy a box of CC ever again unfortunately. Too many good NCs priced appropriately like the Nudies thanks to Rob and Tatuaje etc. heck padrons look cheap compared to a box of hoyo petit robos
Glad I stocked up with FoH for years and I am contemplating putting some boxes of cohiba and trinny up to buy nudies lol.


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[Rhinoww]

5 minutes ago, chasy said:

The Monte 2 price is eye opening! I got in during summer of ‘22 and have seen some major increases.

Massive props to El Prez for keeping us in the game between best available pricing + Nudies / MoFohs!

Prices here are the best you will find. I took a quick tour of the trusted online vendors. Next best price on a box of Monte 2 was $825. Nuts. I didn’t like them that much in 2020. The new prices don’t make me like them more now 😂 Sorry HSA. 

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, Rhinoww said:

Interesting to revisit this thread after about a year.

I’m still waiving my fist at HSA.

They don’t seem to care.

To the contrary, another price increase sent out yesterday that became effective immediately. Hard to see me buying much in the way of banded boxes except for special circumstances.

$12 for a PLPC (recent reseller email) I just smoked one. Nice, but not a $12 stick.  
Yet even with the prices going up supply continues to decrease. Look on Reddit and you will still see plenty of new CC smokers. It’s nuts to me, but get off my lawn HSA. They don’t care.

Soon I might might get bitter 😂

 

I appreciate you taking it to the (or one of the) appropriate sandpits. Thank you. 

The increase today was flagged in January/February by all distributors. Some imposed it 6 weeks ago, PCC advised yesterday that it is "Live" immediately. I received the new pricing at the same time. They did the right thing as otherwise retailers would order up at the old price the little that there is.

Couple of points: 

• Once upon a time.......price increases occured once a year May 1.  That has gone out the window over the past 18 months.  I was expecting this increase to have been fully implemented 4 weeks ago. as has occured in some other markets. When it wasn't, I assumed May 1 (next Monday). It came as a surprise a week early.  Well played PCC 
• a 3-10% increase in buy prices translates to proportionally  higher retail prices as retailers have to maintain their margin on the increase. I know it sucks but if retailers don't maintain their margins (reflecting their cost/operational structure) they will go broke. 
• I don't have a crystal ball. Normally (pre 2022) this would be the only general price increase for the year. I can't read the minds of HSA however. All normal timelines have well and truly been thrown out the window. 

We were having a good chat on FOH/Zoom/Cauldron  yesterday as the new 109, Carlota and Petit Corona  were taken through their review paces. The 109 I don't know where I will slot but the Carlota and PC are Nudies and gentlemen they are superb. They have been rolled are resting. They join the lancero and the Canonazo that are also ready and excellent by all accounts. 

I am big enough and ugly enough to take the shennanigans of HSA on the chin. I am immensely disappointed at the way some  members have been priced out of the Cuban side of the game. I (and Hamlet) will do our very best to fill the holes as best we can by producing quality cigars in blend profiles most members will appreciate at a price point that you can smoke them without concern as to the cost. That is the way I came into the hobby. That is the way most of us came into this hobby. I look forward to getting back there. No box, no bands, no bullshit.  

[Rhinoww]

Thanks @El Presidente for letting us know how HSA has been operating. I hope that these are the traditional May price increases from HSA, but I don’t recall many immediate implementations. 
 

For the consumer it is the market. We will continue to gravitate where price, quality and service hit the marks. There is a reason why there are so many longstanding members of this forum. 
 

With that said, HSA has clearly repositioned this as a higher end luxury consumable. Last night I went to grab a pre dinner smoke. I pulled a Hoyo PR, cut it and then the voice in my head asked if this was a time for an xx dollar smoke that could be rushed or put down. No it was not. So I grabbed a larger custom roll that cost less than half Hoyo PR. It was a great smoke.  

I’m one of those FOMO guys. It drove me to build a large stash for the “rough times”. We are in a “rough time” now and I’m FOMO about the right time to smoke my now basically capped (large) CC stash. The days of buying five or six boxes a month are over for me. How do I best use what I have left … I’ll be working my way through that over the next years, but my money is that I’ll have a stash of DC, Churchill’s and other expensive sticks in 15 years that I didn’t find the right time to smoke. Each one is basically irreplaceable at current list prices. 
 

At least we will have a steady supply of nudies to look forward to. It will be interesting to see what other entrants there are to the NC but CC taste cigars. I’m curious to see how large this new market is. 
 

Interesting times for sure. 

[joeypots]

Put it like this; I’m not giving cigars away like I did I did two years ago.

[Hammer Smokin']

I reached an interesting point. 

I find it easier to smoke my expensive cigars now. I've resolved myself that when I smoke my CC stash, I'm done with Cubans. It's strange having a light at the end of the tunnel. I think I always passed on my best cigars thinking there will be a better opportunity in the future. 

With what has happened to CC's I've lost some of the enjoyment, simply due to the disgust I have. That kinda sucks. I know it's mental, but I sure don't enjoy the cigars like I did prior to HSA sticking their middle finger up to their customers. 

Sure easy grabbing the best cigars now and burning them down. 

[Bijan]

14 minutes ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

I reached an interesting point. 

Same with me. I was buying thinking there will come a day when I won't be able to, or won't be able to afford to buy anymore.

But when that day came I kind of went into mourning and stopped thinking about cigars for a while.

Now I just smoke whatever I want, knowing full well that my collection is now my desert island collection.

[Rhinoww]

A bit unreal to me. Today Fifteen coro in cardboard for $1216 from a well known online reseller. I have never been smitten by Cohiba but like any good collector I have a few boxes, some tubos and some of these boxes in case my tastes change or magic really occurs after five years. Prices at over $80 a stick per new coro. That’s nuts. Hard to see me ever smoking them. Might trade for a nudies collection though… time will tell. FWIW a few weeks ago these cardboard boxes of 15 were around $900, which was nuts at that time. HSA prices and reseller prices are starting to have a bubble feel for me. Makes me wonder when the market will burst and where will it stabilize. With a monopoly trying to control things prices could be artificially managed, but HSA doesn’t have the cash reserves to do that. Will be interesting to see what happens

[Digi]

40 minutes ago, Rhinoww said:

 Makes me wonder when the market will burst and where will it stabilize. With a monopoly trying to control things prices could be artificially managed, but HSA doesn’t have the cash reserves to do that. Will be interesting to see what happens

I'd like to think this as well but I don't see a world where pricing moves down if supply continues to be gobbled up.  When boxes from $2,000 a pop LCDH LGC Glorias to $400 a box RyJ Cazzies are still being sold out within hours or days, there isn't a compelling reason to move pricing down.

This is likely to be an unpopular opinion but my guess is, if Habanos moved pricing down to a "reasonable" level (whatever that is), even the most jaded, put-out former Habanophiles would come back to buying boxes.  It's a win either way....until the crop runs out...then those CoRo pecatas will be worth a damn fortune!

Edited April 25, 2023 by Digi
butts, lol

[havanaclub]

A bit unreal to me. Today Fifteen coro in cardboard for $1216 from a well known online reseller. I have never been smitten by Cohiba but like any good collector I have a few boxes, some tubos and some of these boxes in case my tastes change or magic really occurs after five years. Prices at over $80 a stick per new coro. That’s nuts. Hard to see me ever smoking them. Might trade for a nudies collection though… time will tell. FWIW a few weeks ago these cardboard boxes of 15 were around $900, which was nuts at that time. HSA prices and reseller prices are starting to have a bubble feel for me. Makes me wonder when the market will burst and where will it stabilize. With a monopoly trying to control things prices could be artificially managed, but HSA doesn’t have the cash reserves to do that. Will be interesting to see what happens

I have seen a online retailer who pretty much just has cohiba and trinny with some scraps. People already have stopped buying them.

What I want to know, is where did this all come from? I remember boxes of cohiba at a very popular online place having stock of pretty much all the Siglo line and CoRo all the time at the old standard prices. 190-200 for sig 1. 400 for CoRo etc. and they didn’t sell out. Now everyone wants them at absurd prices.


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[GoodStix]

I respect that opinions vary as to where the world is headed economically, but many believe we’re on the path to a serious prolonged global recession (or worse).  If that recession does unfold, discretionary spending will crash for most people (including many with savings and/or investments).  I wonder if HSA will be forced to reconsider its pricing.  Time will tell.

[gustavehenne]

I'm not 'priced out' of the game but will I choose to spend 2,5k on Esplendidos or 500 on Padron 1926 No 1? 

I work hard for my money, I'll be spending it wisely. Goodbye HSA!

(Although saying that I just picked up a cab of 50 Lusitanias in Switzerland so I'm full of contradictions as usual)

[MrBirdman]

13 hours ago, Bijan said:

But when that day came I kind of went into mourning and stopped thinking about cigars for a while.

I am really surprised at what an impact this has had on my ability to enjoy CC. I basically didn’t smoke any for months and even now generally reach for NC lanceros despite having enough CC to last me for many years. I haven’t touched a “premium” stick this year, outside a single Siglo II, even though I have plenty. They’ve taken the fun out of it somehow. 

 

7 hours ago, gustavehenne said:

Although saying that I just picked up a cab of 50 Lusitanias in Switzerland so I'm full of contradictions as usual)

That’s what makes it even tougher - the few remaining sticks worth the exorbitant prices are so hard to find you can’t ignore the opportunity to grab some. 

[TroutBum]

FULLY! HSA can shove it plenty of good options in the NC world no draw issues and 1/5 of the price