HSA Stock Update

[MossybackR]

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

and the crazy amount of pretty high quality sticks we have today.  

Hmmm … my quick checks showed a lot of bare shelves for some premium domestics. 

[BrightonCorgi]

18 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

Hard to imagine them sanctioning that (at least officially) - besides the branding/image complications, the tobacco is much more valuable in a Habano. I just hope they don't make the mistake again of ramping up production by drafting an army of inexperienced rollers. If we start seeing boxes where 50%+ is plugged or with other major construction issues, it won't matter how good the tobacco is.  

Habanos should allow contract rollers to help out.

[Corylax18]

People clearly don't understand the definition of scarcity. If the US Imported more Cigars than they have in 25 years, there isnt a supply problem. (With NCs) Its obviously a massive spike in demand, as we saw with just about every "vice" product. Alcohol, legal weed, cigars, cigarettes, whatever. It will subside, everything is cyclical. 

The whole craze in the late 90's was partially fueled by how good a lot of the cuban cigars in the early to mid nineties where. Everybody wanted to get some, like now. But they hired a ton of in experienced rollers, didnt QC and sold a ton of shit. 

I think you guys are giving Cuba WWWAAAYYYY to much credit on QC right now. They have years of catching up to do with the NC brands, even if they didnt have all these other issues to contend with. I can count on one hand the number of boxes I've purchased that I could smoke all 25 cigars. 

Now everyone's recommendation is to hire a bunch of in experienced "contract" rollers?? Have we not learned anything? I'm perfectly fine with them sitting on warehouses full of leaf. Its aging, getting better. What's the rush? The new Ownership may push another revolution in production, like we saw in the early 2000's. But we haven't heard a whisper from them yet.

[Huckleberry]

14 hours ago, MossybackR said:

Hmmm … my quick checks showed a lot of bare shelves for some premium domestics. 

Well then for sure the second cigar boom is in full measure   I enjoy seeing folks smoking cigars, its good for the hobby in general.

[Hammer Smokin']

37 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Well then for sure the second cigar boom is in full measure   I enjoy seeing folks smoking cigars, its good for the hobby in general.

more folks smoking cigars is good for the hobby. 

more folks hoarding cigars to sell for a profit (or to die with), reducing the overall number of available cigars (and thus increasing cigar costs), is not. 

[Puros Y Vino]

It's only "hearsay" but from what I've seen discussed on various forums is that you cannot discount the demand from China and Middle East based buyers. Paying premiums on various Marcas and releases doesn't faze them.  Habanos starts to get used to those margins and in turn, ensures they serve those markets first.  

Add in a worldwide Pandemic, now in its' second year and all the logistics issues throughout. Add a dash of bad weather destroying some crops too.  Here on FOH, through Rob, we've been privy to what Habanos is able to ship out and in what quantities to a certain degree.  Reports from members across the world echo the same findings: Stock is limited and scarce. 

[Monterey]

4 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

 Add a dash of bad weather destroying some crops too. 

When was that?  I heard of a delay due to some early rains, but that was this season.  Leaf that wouldn't be put into cigars for a few years.  Besides, it doesn't sound like there is any shortage of leaf.  So not sure what you mean by weather playing any part int he current situation.

[Puros Y Vino]

1 minute ago, Monterey said:

When was that?  I heard of a delay due to some early rains, but that was this season.  Leaf that wouldn't be put into cigars for a few years.  Besides, it doesn't sound like there is any shortage of leaf.  So not sure what you mean by weather playing any part int he current situation.

There's been issues with crop damage the past few years. Depending on what supplies are pulled from it could have affected the amounts and types of cigars that they were able to roll. 

[BrightonCorgi]

What percent of rollers are working right now vs. 3-5 years ago?

[El Presidente]

6 minutes ago, BrightonCorgi said:

What percent of rollers are working right now vs. 3-5 years ago?

You would only get those numbers from Tabacuba. 

Tabacuba doesn't give those numbers 

To put it in perspective, you had a major factory temporarilly shut last week due to a lack of resources. 

 

[El Presidente]

On 2/23/2022 at 11:02 PM, Corylax18 said:

But we haven't heard a whisper from them yet.

Their strategy was to maintain the existing management and observe/understand before taking a more active role. Perfectly reasonable. 

Then Covid hit. 

[Corylax18]

1 minute ago, El Presidente said:

Their strategy was to maintain the existing management and observe/understand before taking a more active role. Perfectly reasonable. 

Then Covid hit. 

Yes. Totally reasonable.

Whats the over/under on years before we start to see their hand in the cookie jar? From now, not the initial purchase. 

[El Presidente]

 

 

1 minute ago, Corylax18 said:

Yes. Totally reasonable.

Whats the over/under on years before we start to see their hand in the cookie jar? From now, not the initial purchase. 

 

I am sure they would like to do a lot of things. 

I am sure Imperial Tobacco wanted to as well 

They are 50% marketing partners.   Very few marketing departments have changed corporations 🤣

[Corylax18]

Just now, El Presidente said:

 

 

 

I am sure they would like to do a lot of things. 

I am sure Imperial Tobacco wanted to as well 

They are 50% marketing partners.   Very few marketing departments have changed corporations 🤣

I'm just trying to be optimistic. 😄  Say what you want about the Chinese, but we could all learn from them about efficiency. 

I couldn't imagine a much larger culture clash though. I've seen the busloads of Chinese businessmen unloading at LCDHs in Havana. Same suit, tie, shirt, shoes. Its like watching "The Matrix".

I would love to be a fly on the wall for the meetings between Tabacuba brass and the managing director selected by the investment firm. Their speaking two different languages in more ways than one. 

[SCgarman]

22 hours ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

more folks smoking cigars is good for the hobby. 

more folks hoarding cigars to sell for a profit (or to die with), reducing the overall number of available cigars (and thus increasing cigar costs), is not. 

One cannot prevent hoarding nor flipping. Capitalism is capitalism. 

[El Presidente]

6 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

I'm just trying to be optimistic. 😄  Say what you want about the Chinese, but we could all learn from them about efficiency. 

 

 

not a scrap of leaf on the floor 🤣

 

[Corylax18]

15 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

not a scrap of leaf on the floor 🤣

Maybe we should be asking how many generations it will take? 

[Hammer Smokin']

27 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

One cannot prevent hoarding nor flipping. Capitalism is capitalism. 

I understand that. 

But my comment was a specific response to the cigar boom being good for the hobby. The boom is good if it means more people are smoking cigars, and thus good for the hobby. 

Capitalism being capitalism has nothing to do with being good for the hobby. 

[BrightonCorgi]

1 hour ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

I understand that. 

But my comment was a specific response to the cigar boom being good for the hobby. The boom is good if it means more people are smoking cigars, and thus good for the hobby. 

Capitalism being capitalism has nothing to do with being good for the hobby. 

The eradication of tobacco via laws and taxes are the biggest threat to the cigar hobby.  Add in inflation for good measure.

[Fuzz]

2 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

Maybe we should be asking how many generations it will take? 

Not long. These women, who are rolling the larger format cigars, are nearing mandatory retirement. The kids in the next room are rolling small format cigars. When they get older, they get to roll the bigger cigars. The nursery down the hall is training the next batch of rollers.

[Hemclas]

10 hours ago, El Presidente said:

not a scrap of leaf on the floor 🤣

wow

[GoodStix]

On 2/23/2022 at 5:02 AM, Corylax18 said:

I'm perfectly fine with them sitting on warehouses full of leaf. Its aging, getting better. What's the rush?

I don't know the ins-and-outs of the industry, but as an outsider/customer I'd certainly prefer quality over quantity given we can't have both.

@El Presidente you have your ear well to the ground.  Do you foresee significant risk of a decline in quality (talent and brain drain), or is quality likely to remain reasonably good? (albeit at low production and higher prices)  Or is the future of CCs entirely clear as mud?

[El Presidente]

39 minutes ago, GoodStix said:

@El Presidente you have your ear well to the ground.  Do you foresee significant risk of a decline in quality (talent and brain drain), or is quality likely to remain reasonably good? (albeit at low production and higher prices)  Or is the future of CCs entirely clear as mud?

I suspect the loss of personnel will indeed have a detrimental effect. Supposition obviously. Time will tell. 

[helix]

How many can possibly afford to get out of Cuba? 

[El Presidente]

5 minutes ago, helix said:

How many can possibly afford to get out of Cuba? 

the brightest ones