Supply Update 1/9/2021

[El Presidente]

Some green shoots in that there have been increasing shipments out of havana over the past fortnight. Still only a fraction of pre-May 2021.  let's see if that continues. 

Pipeline crystalballing, some improvement over the next 30 days. Nothing major. 

There is no quick fix for their dilemma.

• There are still near record infections and deaths per day. 
• Factories are enforcing social distancing and naturally shutting down if things get out of control. 
• Schools are shut and will be at least until the end of September. This means female factory workers are largely looking after kids and elderly. 
• There is no tourism = there are no flights = there are few freight cargo options out. 

September supply will likely be an incremental improvement over August. 

The best that can be hoped for at this time is incremental global supply improvements month on month for the next quarter.  Any production normaility can't logically occur before January. Shipping from Cuba won't realistically improve until November/December 2021 at this stage. 

Back to some sense of global supply normality, June-September 2022

For the above timelines to occur, everything has to go right. 

[rob]

Thanks mate. I wish all those on the Island, in particular our friends, the sincerest of positive thoughts and prayers during these trying times.

[El Presidente]

Just now, rob said:

Thanks mate. I wish all those on the Island, in particular our friends, the sincerest of positive thoughts and prayers during these trying times.

Good to see you Rob! 

Our mates and their families are having a tough time indeed. 

[Bri Fi]

Sorry if this was already addressed in the previous supply updates... what is happening to the leaf since they are not being rolled? Is there a potential for blends to be different in the coming year due to the leaf being aged more before being rolled? 

[El Presidente]

59 minutes ago, Bri Fi said:

Sorry if this was already addressed in the previous supply updates... what is happening to the leaf since they are not being rolled? Is there a potential for blends to be different in the coming year due to the leaf being aged more before being rolled? 

12-months - 2 years won't make much difference except perhaps on the upside. 

[Troels]

Hope for a tsunami once they have their channels open again 🤗

[NSXCIGAR]

4 hours ago, El Presidente said:

12-months - 2 years won't make much difference except perhaps on the upside. 

Are you saying ELs aren't special?

[MISTAFORTY]

Hard to be frustrated when you think about the "why" and put in perspective what theyre going through.  Hoping for stability and health for their well being....i can wait on the cigars.  Thanks for the update. now i just need a cheat code for 24 24 down down right up left x + y left o 😆🤣

 

[Rhinoww]

Your updates are much appreciated. 

Tough times in Cuba. 

[Yigal]

Wishing them well and hope they will be back to 100% as fast as possible. Out of curiosity, is the product coming out these days same, better, or worst compared to when things were in full swing? With more people not being able to work, I wonder if they had to switch people around given they’re on a skeleton crew. If so, must have made a difference in quality/production.

[Zebra]

Thanks for your efforts and for keeping us updated Rob.