Bitcoin Price Prediction

[Hammer Smokin']

5 hours ago, luckyli said:

Is it a good time to invest in bitcoin now?

as good a time to buy a lottery ticket. 

equal chance of winning. 

 

4 hours ago, vladdraq said:

Marijuana sector might have a run. 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-marijuana-simple-possession-pardons-1.6608858

not sure how pardoning criminals who aren't criminals (as no one who got busted with pot should be a criminal) has anything to do with cannabis stocks but...still good to see Biden doing what is right.

[cnov]

20 minutes ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

as good a time to buy a lottery ticket. 

equal chance of winning. 

I'm not sure that you understand probability or crypto.

Been a while, hope you're well 😁

[Hammer Smokin']

the second post in this thread says it all. 

could go up. could go down. could stay the same. 

that's what happens where there's zero logic or backing behind bitcoin. completely 100% unpredictable (and don't let anyone tell you it's predictable, or that they can predict it). 

as such, no different than playing the lottery. 

100% unpredictability. 

and anyone with any investment acumen will tell you how to invest in something with 100% unpredictability. 

[vladdraq]

Bitcoin is moving with Nasdaq. Powell said they are not stopping the rate hikes until housing market doesn't correct. When that happens is time to buy. Or you can always scale in. 🙂 

[cnov]

1 minute ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

the second post in this thread says it all. 

could go up. could go down. could same the same. 

that's what happens where there's zero logic or backing behind bitcoin. completely 100% unpredictable (and don't let anyone tell you it's predictable, or that they can predict it). 

as such, no different than playing the lottery. 

100% unpredictability. 

and anyone with any investment acumen will tell you how to invest in something with 100% unpredictability. 

The future always has a degree of unpredictability, whether you're investing in stocks, currency, crypto or whatever.

From your previous posts you obviously have a real bee in your bonnet with regards to crypto, but I am not sure why. If you look at the price charts from the last 10 years, it looks like a fairly reasonable investment to me, perhaps an unbeatable one.

What would it have to do to make you change your mind?

What would you suggest investing in as an alternative?

 

 

[vladdraq]

39 minutes ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

not sure how pardoning criminals who aren't criminals (as no one who got busted with pot should be a criminal) has anything to do with cannabis stocks but...still good to see Biden doing what is right.

This is all hype based move. Shorts are covering. Still the move won't last if the sp500 doesn't help.

[Hammer Smokin']

12 minutes ago, cnov said:

The future always has a degree of unpredictability, whether you're investing in stocks, currency, crypto or whatever.

From your previous posts you obviously have a real bee in your bonnet with regards to crypto, but I am not sure why. If you look at the price charts from the last 10 years, it looks like a fairly reasonable investment to me, perhaps an unbeatable one.

What would it have to do to make you change your mind?

What would you suggest investing in as an alternative?

 

 

working in a financial industry as a professional we have learned the difference between investing and gambling. 

I don't tell people to stop going to the casino. It's entertainment. But it isn't investing. It's gambling. 

If Crypto was handled like gambling, then I would have less of a "bee in my bonnet". But for every person who calls it investing, which it isn't, I point out that it is 100% unpredictable with no founded backing. Therefore, it isn't investing. 

Any qualified investment counsel will include advice to put money into ETFs. If you have "play" money, money that can be spent on cigars, cocaine, or anything else, that's fine to spend on bitcoin. 

But don't look at crypto purchasing as investments, or consider it within any form of dependable long term investment portfolio. 

Any qualified investment counselor will advise the same. it's gambling, nothing else. You can win, you can lose. But it isn't investing. 

 

[cnov]

I agree that it shouldn't be more than play money, but it's not unpredictable.

Crypto bull runs are entirely based on the block reward halving which is predictable.

An investment is any scheme that you put money into in the hope of taking more out, Bitcoin has been the investment of the last decade. That's not to say that it will continue that way, but you cannot deny it has been so far.

I'd go as far as to say that most investments are a gamble, most of us retail investors get our pants pulled down regularly.

How about a wager? You're very confident. I'll gladly (forum rules permitting) put a box of cigars on the table that I could invest an imaginary $100 in Bitcoin today and beat your return by the end of 2025? You can choose whatever you like **to invest in**, I won't be able to afford any Cohibas if crypto doesn't do well 😄

[Hammer Smokin']

I think you could probably tell by now, I'm not a gambler. There is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will outperform whatever investment I choose and a 50% chance it will not. Completely unpredictable. 

It's up to each individual to determine if they have the tolerance to gamble in unpredictability. 

 

 

 

[cnov]

2 hours ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

I think you could probably tell by now, I'm not a gambler. There is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will outperform whatever investment I choose and a 50% chance it will not. Completely unpredictable. 

It's up to each individual to determine if they have the tolerance to gamble in unpredictability.

How many years of data would you need in order to build a degree of predictability? How many years of profit would it take for you to concede that Bitcoin is indeed an "investment" in your eyes?

For what it's worth, I wholeheartedly agree with most of your points with regard to 99% of cryptocurrency, but I think Bitcoin has probably done enough to prove itself at this point in time.

 

[Hammer Smokin']

it's not a number of years that determines predictability, it is what the investment is founded on as a basis for valuation. 

Stocks and ETF's are based on business or currencies with backing. 

You can make predictable assumptions on investments that are based on 'something'. (that is usually a business or business plan, or in the case of currencies, the backing of the currency). Apply the investment fundamentals that are taught in first year economics. These fundamentals did not dissolve because of crypto (although some crypto gamblers feel they are smarter than the fundamentals). 

Crypto, and the nature of what it is valuated from, will never be considered an investment within investment advisors. It'll always be considered gambling. But many rich people gamble, and some of them successfully. 

Any financial advisor will advise clients that they can indeed purchase crypto, but to treat it within their "play" portion of their portfolio. Never (ever!) rely on it. 

Too many people lost when they took out HELOC's and other loans to buy into Crypto. But these were purchases made without investment advice. That's why it's tough for me to feel bad. All I do is ask would you take a HELOC out to go to the casino? Most look at me like I'm crazy. That's how I look at them when they tell me they bought Bitcoin. 

 

[Ken Gargett]

1 minute ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

it's not a number of years that determines predictability, it is what the investment is founded on as a basis for valuation. 

Stocks and ETF's are based on business or currencies with backing. 

You can make predictable assumptions on investments that are based on 'something'. (that is usually a business or business plan, or in the case of currencies, the backing of the currency). Apply the investment fundamentals that are taught in first year economics. These fundamentals did not dissolve because of crypto (although some crypto gamblers feel they are smarter than the fundamentals). 

Crypto, and the nature of what it is valuated from, will never be considered an investment within investment advisors. It'll always be considered gambling. But many rich people gamble, and some of them successfully. 

Any financial advisor will advise clients that they can indeed purchase crypto, but to treat it within their "play" portion of their portfolio. Never (ever!) rely on it. 

Too many people lost when they took out HELOC's and other loans to buy into Crypto. But these were purchases made without investment advice. That's why it's tough for me to feel bad. All I do is ask would you take a HELOC out to go to the casino? Most look at me like I'm crazy. That's how I look at them when they tell me they bought Bitcoin. 

 

i would say that in fairness to all of this that crypto is not as much of a gamble as the lottery. with crypto it is, as someone said, going to go up, down or stay the same, so that is much better odds than a lottery ticket. but of course, a lottery ticket is a few bucks. if you lose on crypto, you'll lose a lot more. i would see it as much more like going red or black at the wheel. about similar odds. and level of expertise. 

[Hammer Smokin']

to be honest, "IF" I was going to do that bet, that's what I'd do. Your best odds would be to gamble it on red or black. 

best to compare Crypto with going to the casino. 

the world managed to change the word marijuana to cannabis in order to change the perception. 

the term crypto investing should be changed to crypto gambling. 

while it wouldn't change anything directly, it would open peoples eyes to what crypto is, and maybe even have someone ask "why is crypto gambling". 

[amberleaf]

To make money on Bitcoin someone out there has to pay you more for it than what you paid. These people are known as 'greater fools'. The problem is you eventually run out of greater fools.

When you invest in company stocks you expect them to grow their business by offering new products and services, expanding into new markets and generating value. Cryptocurrency does none of these things. Putting money into it is a gamble, not an investment.

And to anyone that says I don't understand Bitcoin (a common refrain of crypto enthusiasts), I read Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper back in 2009 and have kept an interest ever since. It has utterly failed in what it was supposed to be, an 'Electronic Cash System' as Mr Nakamoto put it, and is now nothing more than a speculative pyramid scheme. The blockchain technology behind it isn't even that interesting - a distributed, append-only ledger that in almost all cases is inferior to a centralised database.

[cnov]

I'm off to get some shut eye but I'll be interested to continue this tomorrow. I appreciate the schooling.

[Hammer Smokin']

2 minutes ago, amberleaf said:

To make money on Bitcoin someone out there has to pay you more for it than what you paid. These people are known as 'greater fools'. The problem is you eventually run out of greater fools.

When you invest in company stocks you expect them to grow their business by offering new products and services, expanding into new markets and generating value. Cryptocurrency does none of these things. Putting money into it is a gamble, not an investment.

And to anyone that says I don't understand Bitcoin (a common refrain of crypto enthusiasts), I read Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper back in 2009 and have kept an interest ever since. It has utterly failed in what it was supposed to be, an 'Electronic Cash System' as Mr Nakamoto put it, and is now nothing more than a speculative pyramid scheme. The blockchain technology behind it isn't even that interesting - a distributed, append-only ledger that in almost all cases is inferior to a centralised database.

I'm a daily reader of The Greater Fool. (Mr Garth Turner)

An amazing FREE daily financial blog that is 100% independent with fantastic investment advice based on the principal of not being "the greater fool". 

https://www.greaterfool.ca/

Your point of companies growing their business through product and service offering is part of the investment fundamentals I was referring to. I'm a daily reader of crypto boards, including the big one, reddit bitcoin. We are all more than familiar with the halving of block chain. But that isn't a fundamental. That is just an element on how the 'coins' are mined. Pointing to that as a fundamental reason for valuation (and future valuation) isn't sound. 

[Taco]

Bitcoin is an amazing technology. Compared to the unsound money principles governments are exhibiting now, bitcoin is a boon for people looking for predictable monetary policy which cannot be changed. The power of networking is on display through the validation of the blockchain by tens of thousands of nodes around the world. I can literally send a billion dollars worth of value from my Texas living room to a relative in China in a matter of minutes for pennies. All this can be done without a trusted intermediary. No banks. No governments. No security.

It makes sense financial advisors, bankers, goverments dislike it. He who controls the money controls the power.

People may dislike it or write it off, but to think this stuff isn’t going to have a gigantic place in our future is foolish. 

[Hammer Smokin']

like earlier in this thread, it is an amazing form of technology. 

as prez said, it would be great for retailers to use and accept it as a form of currency. But in order for that to happen, you need the ability to immediately transfer it to a local currency (or at least a global currency). 

once that happens, it will be interesting to see what companies do. Do you hold it in BC, potentially increasing the value, or equally potentially losing its value, or do you receive it and immediately convert it to a predictable fiat currency? 

it'll be a way for businesses to gamble their income. 

but until a business can accept bitcoin and immediately turn it into a local currency it isn't truly a viable option for retail. That time will come. It may also provide some stabilization.....maybe.

[El Presidente]

11 minutes ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

but until a business can accept bitcoin and immediately turn it into a local currency it isn't truly a viable option for retail. That time will come. It may also provide some stabilization.....maybe.

I am looking forward to that day 

[Hammer Smokin']

would you keep a portion of the currency in Bitcoin, or would you immediately transfer it into a local currency? 

I do find that part of the equation fascinating. It opens up so many questions. would board of directors and shareholders want the income generated to remain in bitcoin, or take your profits from your product/service and don't gamble your top line....even if it 'may' benefit your bottom line. 

that's the part of the whole process I find fascinating. 

but it all comes back to one thing. 

it's gambling.

[El Presidente]

3 minutes ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

would you keep a portion of the currency in Bitcoin, or would you immediately transfer it into a local currency? 

 

It would depend on what the situation is. 

If you have a fat bank account, then there would be little harm in holding a % in BC and trading. 

If times are tight, BC wouldn't see a cent. You would want it all in currency that the tax office accepts. 

[Hammer Smokin']

Makes sense. Gamble when you can afford it. 

Never rely on it - especially when times are rough (tight). 

Those are the principles that should be employed when purchasing any form of Crypto. 

[amberleaf]

37 minutes ago, Taco said:

 I can literally send a billion dollars worth of value from my Texas living room to a relative in China in a matter of minutes for pennies. All this can be done without a trusted intermediary.

Why on earth wouldn't you use a trusted intermediary? A typo or a hack and all that money is gone, never to be seen again. Also on the blockchain there is zero privacy, every transaction is there for everyone to see. Do you want the world to know what you spend your money on?

[Taco]

There are companies working on this currently. I believe the most prominent is called Strike. They use the bitcoin lightning network. The user doesn’t touch the network or bitcoin at all. The user sends $10, the app takes the 10 and turns it into bitcoin, sends across the network, and instantly changes it back to the currency of your choosing. 

[Hammer Smokin']

and when bitcoin price crashes, the ap goes bankrupt as it held all its wealth in BC, and you lose that service (sound familiar), then what happens? 

that's the challenge right now. bitcoin is so volatile that building business models around it can crash and burn overnight. 

what bitcoin needs (gasp) is help from the major banks to convert and transfer....but they don't want to associate with big bad banks. 

quite a pickle if I do say so myself.