Bitcoin Price Prediction

[JustDave]

23 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

i'm sure someone understands it but beyond me. i would not put two cents into - no problem if others want to. dogscoin or whatever it is called. a couple of blokes in sydney set up a crypto for fun, as a joke, and to take the piss. next thing it is worth $85 billion and elon musk is using it to sell space flights. lord spare me. 

and here's the real shocker. one of the blokes who started it bailed out because he believes crypto is exploitive and designed to enrich the top proponents (and yes, i'm sure that the irony was not lost on him). his co-founder agreed. 

why would anyone get into this is beyond me. this is like the old days when taxi drivers and waiters and so on were giving stock tips. you knew it was definitely time to get out. 

I was at my sister in laws 50th birthday party 2 weeks ago and her almost 80 year old mother mentioned in passing, 'should we have some investments in crypto, it seems like something people can make a lot of money on' at which point all I could do was laugh.

I made plenty off of ETH a few years ago, paid my taxes on it and got out.  I recently won a bet that BTC would trade under 20k USD/Coin within the next 365 days when it was at 65k last year with a friend for a full set of 13.x octomores when they come out.  Got good odds too, 4 octomores against a JW Blue.

[Ken Gargett]

1 minute ago, JustDave said:

I was at my sister in laws 50th birthday party 2 weeks ago and her almost 80 year old mother mentioned in passing, 'should we have some investments in crypto, it seems like something people can make a lot of money on' at which point all I could do was laugh.

I made plenty off of ETH a few years ago, paid my taxes on it and got out.  I recently won a bet that BTC would trade under 20k USD/Coin within the next 365 days when it was at 65k last year with a friend for a full set of 13.x octomores when they come out.  Got good odds too, 4 octomores against a JW Blue.

much rather a cupboard full of octomores than a whatever one has of cryptos. 

[Homer]

zero

 

[BrightonCorgi]

There is a demand and need for crypto currencies, but which ones and how much they are worth; who knows?  I think Bitcoin will rebound.

[Hammer Smokin']

a need? 

the only need of crypto is to gamble. 

if crypto disappeared tomorrow, the only people who would notice are those who invested. 

there isn't a "need" for crypto. 

but there sure is a want from those who want to get rich quick.

[El Presidente]

5 minutes ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

a need? 

 

I would love to use crypto as a retailer!

I would love to transfer funds  to pay for  goods outside of US or any other Federal reserve scrutiny.  I would be happy to take payments in crypto via an exchange. I have zero interest in holding crypto at this time but a multi currency/crypto account facility would be most beneficial. 

I am happy to comply with KYC requirements as long as they are not political/foreign policy motivated. 

 

[Hammer Smokin']

4 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I would love to use crypto as a retailer!

I would love to transfer funds  to pay for  goods outside of US or any other Federal reserve scrutiny.  I would be happy to take payments in crypto via an exchange. I have zero interest in holding crypto at this time but a multi currency/crypto account facility would be most beneficial. 

I am happy to comply with KYC requirements as long as they are not political/foreign policy motivated. 

 

I get it from the retailer stand point. 

But the volatility of the "currency" (and I say that loosely) doesn't make it a great choice. 

Sure you can fly under the "big brother" radars, but because it isn't backed in any way, the swings will always be too great for it to be a trusted form of payment. 

Someone makes a purchase off you, and pays in Bitcoin, you had better be able to immediately transfer it into your currency of choice. (and currently you can't do that). 

[cnov]

8 hours ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

a need? 

the only need of crypto is to gamble. 

if crypto disappeared tomorrow, the only people who would notice are those who invested. 

there isn't a "need" for crypto. 

but there sure is a want from those who want to get rich quick.

There are plenty of people in countries that don't have access to banks. Crypto gives them the opportunity to have a digital store of value.

Certainly a lot of people looking to get rich quick and getting stung, but at present, anyone who bought and held since the last bull run will be in profit today.

There aren't many better long term investments out there, fact. If you have any pointers on anything that can perform as well over 7-10 years, I'm all ears.

 

[cnov]

1 minute ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

I get it from the retailer stand point. 

But the volatility of the "currency" (and I say that loosely) doesn't make it a great choice. 

Sure you can fly under the "big brother" radars, but because it isn't backed in any way, the swings will always be too great for it to be a trusted form of payment. 

Someone makes a purchase off you, and pays in Bitcoin, you had better be able to immediately transfer it into your currency of choice. (and currently you can't do that). 

I don't mean to be disrespectful, but you don't really understand Bitcoin.

Certainly volatile, won't argue with that, but none of your other statements hold weight.

[Hammer Smokin']

1 minute ago, cnov said:

There are plenty of people in countries that don't have access to banks. Crypto gives them the opportunity to have a digital store of value.

Certainly a lot of people looking to get rich quick and getting stung, but at present, anyone who bought and held since the last bill run will be in profit today.

There aren't many better long term investments out there, fact. If you have any pointers on anything that can perform as well over 7-10 years, I'm all ears.

 

I could literally say any investment that has been around for 7 - 10 years, as you don't know how crypto (of any form) will be after 7 to 10 years. 

so tough to say "fact" when it truly isn't a fact. 

[Hammer Smokin']

1 minute ago, cnov said:

I don't mean to be disrespectful, but you don't really understand Bitcoin.

Certainly volatile, won't argue with that, but none of your other statements hold weight.

no worries. that isn't disrespectful at all. 

just an alternate opinion. all good.

[cnov]

8 hours ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

I could literally say any investment that has been around for 7 - 10 years, as you don't know how crypto (of any form) will be after 7 to 10 years. 

so tough to say "fact" when it truly isn't a fact. 

We can look back though can't we, are there any investments that have outperformed bitcoin 2012-2022?

You're right that no one knows what's happen in the next 10 years for sure.

[El Presidente]

8 minutes ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

Someone makes a purchase off you, and pays in Bitcoin, you had better be able to immediately transfer it into your currency of choice. (and currently you can't do that). 

You can use an exchange .....but I would be a touch wary on the chosen exchange right now. 

From a retail perspective, we are not far away from taking on a payment API which will allow a purchaser to pay via CC/Transfer/Crypto. 

As long as the crypto exchane rate is known and immediate, there is no risk to the retailer. 

Still a little way away. 

[cnov]

1 minute ago, El Presidente said:

You can use an exchange .....but I would be a touch wary on the chosen exchange right now. 

From a retail perspective, we are not far away from taking on an payment API which will allow a purchaser to pay via CC/Transfer/Crypto. 

As long as the crypto exchane rate is known and immediate, there is no risk to the retailer. 

Still a little way away. 

There are systems out there right now, a trade will typically have a 5 minute window, if the funds aren't sent in that 5 minutes the transaction will need to be re-done at a recalculated rate.

[El Presidente]

1 minute ago, cnov said:

There are systems out there right now, a trade will typically have a 5 minute window, if the funds aren't sent in that 5 minutes the transaction will need to be re-done at a recalculated rate.

We would be looking for a backend API that works with a merchant gateway. Our merchant gateway providers are good mates as well as very progressive. They are working on it. 

[cnov]

5 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

We would be looking for a backend API that works with a merchant gateway. Our merchant gateway providers are good mates as well as very progressive. They are working on it. 

It's a really interesting space any way beyond my understanding.

Would have been a really useful a few years back when any money transfer used to cost a fortune. I think crypto has probably pushed the market towards cheaper and easier ways to pay people in other countries. Look at the likes of Revolut, the offer virtually free currency exchange and don't give a rat's where you spend. To do that from your personal bank account would have seen a foreign currency charge, then an appalling exchange rate.

I'm not sure that I would use it for payment personally as I'm happy with Revolut, but there are millions out there that can't get services like Revolut who are probably chomping at the bit to be able to buy things from afar without getting ripped off along the way.

 

[El Presidente]

10 minutes ago, cnov said:

I'm happy with Revolut, but there are millions out there that can't get services like Revolut who are probably chomping at the bit to be able to buy things from afar without getting ripped off along the way.

 

Technically, transactions involving tobacco are not approved by Revolut. 

I would love a system that kicks those pissants and their "rules"  to the curb once and for all.

[cnov]

4 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Technically, transactions involving tobacco are not approved by Revolut. 

I would love a system that kicks those pissants and their "rules"  to the curb once and for all.

Just had a check, as long as it's a lawful sale it seems it's allowed.

The banks do make me laugh though, I remember seeing articles about some not allowing people to send money to crypto exchanges. I think it's outrageous that they have the nerve to tell anyone where they can and can't send their own money. You don't see them stopping payments to gambling companies to "protect" their customers. Felt like a real own goal as it really highlighted a crypto use case so utterly perfectly.

[dicko]

A lot of guys are conflating bitcoin and the 20 thousand other cryptos. They are fundamentally different.

Bitcoin is the first human innovation that allows a 1) truly distributed digital ledger and 2) absolute digital scarcity.

The potential benefits of that are numerous. Much like the internet and mobile phone technology many of the benefits will expand and evolve.

Rob has indentified one already, the settlement of retail transactions world wide - I would add - instantaneous, near free and without the need for a trusted intermediary.

The one critisicm which really holds any weight is volatility in price over a short time frame. The answer is simple - dont invest in it if your investment time horizon is under 4 years minimum.

Over time as it moves from being a nascent asset class in price discovery mode to a consensus safe long term store of value the volatility will lessen. At some point it will be suitable as a medium of exchange especially with the assistance of ancillary innovations like the lightening network.

As far as price for bitcoin I dont think anyone can reasonably tell you other than that the price seems to still be sensitive to the "halving cycle" and overall macro conditions like interest rates. I would expect significant price rises when the money printing starts again and the 2024 bitcoin protocol halving (namely the release of new bitcoins to miners is halved).

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[Ken Gargett]

this is a really worthwhile read for anyone interested in crypto - 

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-3

[Nevrknow]

^ there's a lesson in here I've taught my kids and teaching my grandkids. These roller coasters go up and down. $2500 went to $525,000? Why was he not taking profits off the table? Recoup your original investment, then your playing for free. Absolute payoff will be smaller ( maybe ) but you won't lose anything. Let the free $$ ride it out to the end. 

Worked well for me through the years. 

Quote I heard from someone ( 🤷 ) " Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered".

[Ken Gargett]

12 hours ago, Nevrknow said:

^ there's a lesson in here I've taught my kids and teaching my grandkids. These roller coasters go up and down. $2500 went to $525,000? Why was he not taking profits off the table? Recoup your original investment, then your playing for free. Absolute payoff will be smaller ( maybe ) but you won't lose anything. Let the free $$ ride it out to the end. 

Worked well for me through the years. 

Quote I heard from someone ( 🤷 ) " Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered".

absolute sense. if you can do that, then play away to the heart's content. 

personally, for this particular sector, i figure that when you have rugby props on tv advertising crypto then it is time to flee. as the MP crew would have said, run away,run away. 

[Nevrknow]

Just now, Ken Gargett said:

absolute sense. if you can do that, then play away to the heart's content. 

personally, for this particular sector, i figure that when you have rugby props on tv advertising crypto then it is time to flee. as the MP crew would have said, run away,run away. 

Truth! I should add we only put in "poker money". On things like this, if you can't afford to drive down the road, throw it out the window and not miss it. Don't play with it.

[cnov]

5 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

absolute sense. if you can do that, then play away to the heart's content. 

personally, for this particular sector, i figure that when you have rugby props on tv advertising crypto then it is time to flee. as the MP crew would have said, run away,run away. 

That and when your gran asks you to invest.

[vladdraq]

Marijuana sector might have a run. 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-marijuana-simple-possession-pardons-1.6608858