US-Cuba Trade : No Cash No Chicken

[Bijan]

4 minutes ago, mprach024 said:

Yes exactly!  You just proved the point.  China chose to open its markets to capitalistic investment, and it’s seen a boom in money ever since.  Cuba has not done that, hence they are broke. It’s on Cuba to change the situation.  

That was long after Nixon (I believe) restored relations with China though.

[mprach024]

Just now, Bijan said:

That was long after Nixon (I believe) restored relations with China though.

Potato pototo, the money didn’t follow relations, the money followed the market.  People invest money in ownership to make money, no ones going to give money to Cuban businesses when they don’t get any ownership or profits.  That’s not an investment that’s a donation.

[Bijan]

Just now, mprach024 said:

Potato pototo, the money didn’t follow relations, the money followed the market.  People invest money in ownership to make money, no ones going to give money to Cuban businesses when they don’t get any ownership or profits.  That’s not an investment that’s a donation.

Again Marriott or whoever it was didn't buy half a Cuban hotel after Obama allowed it as charity.

[mprach024]

5 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Again Marriott or whoever it was didn't buy half a Cuban hotel after Obama allowed it as charity.

Bijan if people could invest there and make money they would.  There are more countries out there besides the USA.  We have an embargo, Brazil doesn’t. Europe doesn’t.  Australia doesn’t.  Russia doesn’t.  China doesn’t.  Don’t see a lot of money flowing into Cuba from any of those.  Chinas exports to Cuba are at an all time low.  That’s because of the USA embargo?  Not buying that theory.  

[Bijan]

1 minute ago, mprach024 said:

Bijan if people could invest there and make money they would.  There are more countries out there besides the USA.  We have an embargo, Brazil doesn’t. Europe doesn’t.  Australia doesn’t.  Russia doesn’t.  China doesn’t.  Don’t see a lot of money flowing into Cuba from any of those.  Chinas exports to Cuba are at an all time low.  That’s because of the USA embargo?  Not buying that theory.  

I'm not saying that's the only factor.

I'm just saying they're not 100% closed to foreign investment and have not been. They have it in Habanos SA. They have it in mines. They have it in the hotels with Europeans investment since after the fall of the Soviet Union and Marriott was running one for a short while.

Even China I think only just let Tesla have 100% foreign ownership of their Chinese factory. That was a first in 2020.

[mprach024]

Just now, Bijan said:

I'm not saying that's the only factor.

I'm just saying they're not 100% closed to foreign investment and have not been. They have it in Habanos SA. They have it in mines. They have it in the hotels with Europeans investment since after the fall of the Soviet Union and Marriott was running one for a short while.

Even China I think only just let Tesla have 100% foreign ownership of their Chinese factory. That was a first in 2020.

Great, then no need for us to drop the embargo, they are open to the rest of world.  They should be just fine!

[Bijan]

3 minutes ago, mprach024 said:

Great, then no need for us to drop the embargo, they are open to the rest of world.  They should be just fine!

What are we debating?

I'm saying US companies would and could invest in Cuba given the chance.

Whether the embargo should end is a different (though related) question.

[mprach024]

2 minutes ago, Bijan said:

What are we debating?

I'm saying US companies would and could invest in Cuba given the chance.

Whether the embargo should end is a different (though related) question.

My point is regardless of the embargo, there’s a reason there’s not a lot of investment into that country from all over the world, and it’s 100% the way Cuba nationalizes the industry there.  Drop the embargo and you still need Cuba to come to the table and soften on their side to see significant investments made (like what China did with their market).  That’s what Obama was hoping was going to happen, instead Castro and his brother turned their backs.  Which is why Trump and now Biden rolled back the softening, and won’t pick it back up.  No gain to be made with that current regime. 

[NSXCIGAR]

3 minutes ago, Bijan said:

What are we debating?

I was just wondering that myself...

My thoughts are, as far as foreign investment, it goes back to the regime's stance that they are actually very happy with the status quo. I'm sure they're happy with foreign investment in certain narrow areas (until recently they required the regime remain majority on most investments) but general foreign investment into private enterprise isn't in the cards except perhaps in specific cases decided by the regime. 

The embargo limits foreign investment tremendously, as does the regime's reputation for screwing over partners. I would say the embargo has to end before any meaningful foreign investment would come in. 

 

[Bijan]

4 minutes ago, mprach024 said:

My point is regardless of the embargo, there’s a reason there’s not a lot of investment into that country from all over the world, and it’s 100% the way Cuba nationalizes the industry there.  Drop the embargo and you still need Cuba to come to the table and soften on their side to see significant investments made (like what China did with their market).  That’s what Obama was hoping was going to happen, instead Castro and his brother turned their backs.  Which is why Trump and now Biden rolled back the softening, and won’t pick it back up.  No gain to be made with that current regime. 

Again, I agree to a certain extent. But not totally. See the following recent development:

https://www.wlrn.org/news/2020-12-10/badly-in-need-of-cash-cuba-opens-a-wider-door-to-foreign-investment

"In a major shift for the island's communist government, Cuba has announced it will finally let foreign investors hold majority ownership of businesses.

In its official newspaper "Granma," Cuba’s communist regime said this week it will allow foreign investors to have majority ownership in businesses — after six decades of insisting the government always have majority control.

The regime will still retain majority ownership in sectors like public services and mining. But foreign capital may now have majority stakes in critical industries like tourism and biotech. In certain cases, such as technology development, a business may even be completely foreign-owned."

[NSXCIGAR]

4 minutes ago, Bijan said:

In certain cases, such as technology development, a business may even be completely foreign-owned."

Ha, if anyone thinks they own 100% of anything in Cuba...

I'm surprised China has behaved itself this long. I would caution any investor before plunking down billions in current-regime Cuba without at least a decade of good behavior, and even then...too scary for me. 

[Bijan]

5 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Ha, if anyone thinks they own 100% of anything in Cuba...

I'm surprised China has behaved itself this long. I would caution any investor before plunking down billions in current-regime Cuba without at least a decade of good behavior, and even then...too scary for me. 

Definitely agree.

But to the statistics Cuba's economy is about 100-140 billion GDP.

Latin America is 5,610 billion.

Cuba's foreign investment is $1.9 bllion, latin America's is $161 billion.

So about 2% of the economy in terms of GDP but about 1% in terms of foreign investment. Low but not off the charts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Cuba#:~:text=The economy of Cuba is,is employed by the state.&text=It has also been acknowledged,increased before 2019 as well.

https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/groups/Latin-America-and-Caribbean

https://www.cepal.org/en/pressreleases/foreign-direct-investment-latin-america-and-caribbean-fell-78-2019-and-roughly-50#:~:text=Latin America and the Caribbean received %24160.721 billion dollars in,COVID-19 pandemic%2C the Economic

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/cuba-attracts-1-9-billion-foreign-investment-despite-u-s-n1250546

[NSXCIGAR]

2 minutes ago, Bijan said:

So about 2% of the economy in terms of GDP but about 1% in terms of foreign investment. Low but not off the charts.

Yes, and like I said, it's probably concentrated mainly in "critical" and regime-approved areas that really do need the foreign investment, so the regime behaves itself out of necessity.

But once foreign investment starts coming in to "non-critical" areas look out. I'm sure Cuba would love a biotech company...love to appropriate it, that is. 

[Bijan]

15 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Yes, and like I said, it's probably concentrated mainly in "critical" and regime-approved areas that really do need the foreign investment, so the regime behaves itself out of necessity.

But once foreign investment starts coming in to "non-critical" areas look out. I'm sure Cuba would love a biotech company...love to appropriate it, that is. 

Yes most likely anyone with sense would keep to investing in tourism, mining, agriculture and tobacco. But I think a steady stream of American tourists would probably be the most beneficial short/medium term outcome of an end to the embargo/restrictions.

[El Presidente]

51 minutes ago, mprach024 said:

My point is regardless of the embargo, there’s a reason there’s not a lot of investment into that country from all over the world, and it’s 100% the way Cuba nationalizes the industry there.  

That is partly correct. 

However the embargo does not permit/largely restricts  companies to raise international funding for Cuba investment. 

It is why you have Chinese JV partners for HSA today. 

Cuba signed up to the China Belt & Road program in 2019. 

[Nino]

11 hours ago, Bijan said:

True. But there was at least one major American hotel chain that had got a stake in a Cuban hotel with the relaxing of things I believe.

I mean China is an example. Trade with the west has benefitted China with lots of billionaires and a large middle class but also hasn't weakened the communist party.

 

IIRC it was just a "management" contract by Marriott on a Hotel in Miramar - NOT a "stake".

11 hours ago, mprach024 said:

Potato pototo, the money didn’t follow relations, the money followed the market.  People invest money in ownership to make money, no ones going to give money to Cuban businesses when they don’t get any ownership or profits.  That’s not an investment that’s a donation.

Correct - ask all the Spanish companies that Cuba owes money and that cannot take their profits out/Cuba does not pay. Last sum I heard was €350 mio a few years ago.

11 hours ago, Bijan said:

Again Marriott or whoever it was didn't buy half a Cuban hotel after Obama allowed it as charity.

Again - it was a "management" contract.

11 hours ago, Bijan said:

I'm not saying that's the only factor.

I'm just saying they're not 100% closed to foreign investment and have not been. They have it in Habanos SA. They have it in mines. They have it in the hotels with Europeans investment since after the fall of the Soviet Union and Marriott was running one for a short while.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-usa-hotel-exclusive/exclusive-marriott-says-ordered-by-trump-administration-to-cease-cuba-hotel-business-idUSKBN23C298

https://loyaltylobby.com/2020/06/06/marriott-must-close-its-only-hotel-in-cuba-by-august-31-2020/

Another Obama-era symbol of engagement with Cuba will soon be gone, after the Trump administration told Marriott International its license to run the Sheraton Four Points hotel in Havana will not be renewed.

“We have recently received notice that the government-issued license will not be renewed, forcing Marriott to cease operations in Cuba,” said Kerstin Sachl, the company’s director of public relations for Latin America and the Caribbean.

Sachl said the Treasury Department told Marriott that operations in Cuba have to cease before Aug. 31 and that the company will not be allowed to manage other hotels on the island as it had planned.

The agreement generated criticism from the start because the hotel is owned by the Gaviota company, which is linked to the Cuban military.

-----------

And considering guest reviews like this Marriott might be happy that it was forced out ... ?    stay in a Casa Particular next trip is all I can say .... :

The worst Marriott property I have ever been to

Review of Quinta Avenida Habana

Reviewed May 17, 2019

As in the title, the hotel is definitely the worst Marriott property I have ever visited. Being an Ambassador and Lifetime Platinum member, I've been to 100-200 different properties.

To comment on the most important dimensions:
- Room - the room was in terrible condition, dirty walls, towels with stains, zero amenities. The only highlight was a balcony, however there was no furniture there so quite useless
- Food - hotel has 2-3 restaurants, however the menu is literally the same in all of them. We went there two times and couldn't even finish half of our meals (steaks) as they were disguising. Another time we ordered a cheese and meat platters and received one type of cheese cut in different shapes and very questionable meat (was boiled although was supposed to be cold cut)
- Staff - ok, however hardly anyone was speaking English so was difficult to communicate
- Location - the hotel is quite far from Old Havana, however offers a shuttle (we used it once, the other time driver never arrived or arrived 10+ minutes before scheduled time and we missed him)
- Internet connection - worked surprisingly well as for Cuba
- Price - decent, however could get much better property for it

Show less

Date of stay: May 2019

https://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowUserReviews-g147271-d1651122-r674672863-Quinta_Avenida_Habana-Havana_Ciudad_de_la_Habana_Province_Cuba.html

[Puros Y Vino]

On 2/21/2021 at 4:19 AM, Ken Gargett said:

and in fairness to cuba, that soviet threat died in 1989. more than 30 years ago. no one has stepped in, during that time. it is not a legit argument and i don't think many in the States are even making it. 

 

To the Americans, the Soviet threat was over. To the Soviets, it wasn't, they just changed tactics.  They went online and wreaked havoc.  They watched the last four years of US politics with glee.  And they're still at it.

[Ken Gargett]

18 hours ago, dgixxer252525 said:

I

"I like that some are calling this a debate or a friendly chat...it's neither. There is no debating the issue. "

and yet a great many people disagree with you. which would make it a debate? unless i missed a memo about divine authority shifting? 

 

"The people didn't benefit in the 70s and 80s from the billions in Soviet aid and they didn't benefit in the 90s-00s with Chavez money...end the embargo and hope third time's a charm? Nah"

maybe removing the embargo won't work as well as some of us hope it might and maybe it won't lead to the eventual downfall of the cuban govt and the freedom of the cuban people, but it has not worked for 60 years so perhaps trying something different might be worth a go? or perhaps you'd prefer to leave them suffering for another 60 years, but i can't fathom why. 

 

as i have said to you, despite what you claim, i have met a great many cubans who desperately want the embargo gone. they want to be part of the world. the joy they were showing when they thought obama might have some success with that was something i will never forget. you claim to be the authority on this yet all i see is someone pushing his own political agenda. 

you've attacked me for having an opinion which differs from yours. 

you've claimed assumptions by myself that i never made.

and you have implied criticism because i have an interest in cuban cigars (i assume that extends to everyone else on the site or am i just lucky?). 

in view of all that, i ask again why you are on this site? if you have no interest in cuban cigars yourself then is it solely to push your political barrow? 

[dgixxer252525]

2 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

"I like that some are calling this a debate or a friendly chat...it's neither. There is no debating the issue. "

and yet a great many people disagree with you. which would make it a debate? unless i missed a memo about divine authority shifting? 

 

"The people didn't benefit in the 70s and 80s from the billions in Soviet aid and they didn't benefit in the 90s-00s with Chavez money...end the embargo and hope third time's a charm? Nah"

maybe removing the embargo won't work as well as some of us hope it might and maybe it won't lead to the eventual downfall of the cuban govt and the freedom of the cuban people, but it has not worked for 60 years so perhaps trying something different might be worth a go? or perhaps you'd prefer to leave them suffering for another 60 years, but i can't fathom why. 

 

as i have said to you, despite what you claim, i have met a great many cubans who desperately want the embargo gone. they want to be part of the world. the joy they were showing when they thought obama might have some success with that was something i will never forget. you claim to be the authority on this yet all i see is someone pushing his own political agenda. 

you've attacked me for having an opinion which differs from yours. 

you've claimed assumptions by myself that i never made.

and you have implied criticism because i have an interest in cuban cigars (i assume that extends to everyone else on the site or am i just lucky?). 

in view of all that, i ask again why you are on this site? if you have no interest in cuban cigars yourself then is it solely to push your political barrow? 

I am Cuban and have many family members in the cigar industry on the island. I enjoy reading the different posts on this site, including yours. I love listening to peoples viewpoints. I don't think I've attacked you personally, just corrected you. Very different things I feel. My only political agenda is to see the dictatorship suffer. I wouldn't get my jimmies russled if I were you, just use this as a lesson learned. Even the smartest of men can learn something new every day...

[Bijan]

38 minutes ago, dgixxer252525 said:

I am Cuban and have many family members in the cigar industry on the island. I enjoy reading the different posts on this site, including yours. I love listening to peoples viewpoints. I don't think I've attacked you personally, just corrected you. Very different things I feel. My only political agenda is to see the dictatorship suffer. I wouldn't get my jimmies russled if I were you, just use this as a lesson learned. Even the smartest of men can learn something new every day...

You seem very relaxed about discussing the issue in practice. But I think the statement that got to Ken was when you said:

"I like that some are calling this a debate or a friendly chat...it's neither. There is no debating the issue."

That's basically an attack on anyone who disagrees with you,

[ElJavi76]

If I can learn you guys something it's this... having these discussions is great. We get to hear diverse viewpoints from all walks of life.  Some people who weren't born in Cuba know more about its history than some who were. 

That being said, it boils down to who's got skin in the game. The reason so many guys like @dgixxer252525 Daniel and myself feel so passionate about having that regime end is because we have family there. I understand that many of you have friends there but please don't insult us by comparing the two. It's not the same. The word Castro has a real visceral effect to exiled Cubans. My Great Grandfather hung himself in his barn (casa de tabaco) after learning he was having his land stripped from him by the new Castro regime. 

This is a text conversation with my aunt in Pinar del Rio yesterday: 

*****

Tiita:
Esto esta pelado

Javiel Vazquez:
No hay nada en los mercados?

Tiita:
Nada de comer nada de ponerse

Y como no entra casi nada ya sabes

En los mercados de dolar sii hay cosas mas o menos pero si no tienes verde

Pero en el mercado de moneda nacional hay tomates a 10$ libra pimiento 20$ arroz no hay y cuando encuentran a 25$ frijoles a 45 y 40$   el aceite 2 libras si lo encuentras 120$

Pepinos5$

*****

I'll translate for you... they ain't got $h!+. So please take into account who some of these comments are coming from and what's at stake for them and their (our) families. I just wanted to add a little perspective for those who may feel attacked or those who might think, why not try something new after 60 years. Don't forget in October of 2015 when Obama was trying to normalize things with Cuba, what was Raul Castro's concession? None. He demanded the US return Gitmo and pay billions in reparations due to the embargo. I guess that's one way to negotiate, if you can call it that. 

Just a few tidbits to chew on. 

[El Presidente]

3 minutes ago, ElJavi76 said:

If I can learn you guys something it's this... having these discussions is great. We get to hear diverse viewpoints from all walks of life.  Some people who weren't born in Cuba know more about its history than some who were. 

That being said, it boils down to who's got skin in the game.

 

Javi, this is from someone (email Sunday) who you and I both know and who is living in Cuba today. 

"The Castro's brought us to our knees and the US pushes our faces into the mud. What have we done to deserve this?"

 

To spruik the line that all or the majority of Cubans living in Cuba do not want an end to the embargo is a lie. 

 

[Ken Gargett]

5 hours ago, dgixxer252525 said:

I am Cuban and have many family members in the cigar industry on the island. I enjoy reading the different posts on this site, including yours. I love listening to peoples viewpoints. I don't think I've attacked you personally, just corrected you. Very different things I feel. My only political agenda is to see the dictatorship suffer. I wouldn't get my jimmies russled if I were you, just use this as a lesson learned. Even the smartest of men can learn something new every day...

how fortunate for me to have encountered the font of all knowledge. and yet i still disagree with you. 

[ElJavi76]

3 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

 

Javi, this is from someone (email Sunday) who you and I both know and who is living in Cuba today. 

"The Castro's brought us to our knees and the US pushes our faces into the mud. What have we done to deserve this?"

 

To spruik the line that all or the majority of Cubans living in Cuba do not want an end to the embargo is a lie. 

 

Rob, take it at face value but know that some Cubans there do view the US as the bully. (Maybe propaganda) 

Flip the coin, nearly every Cuban that has made it off the island has been programmed to hate the Castro regime and don't want a compromise. Castro free Cuba or bust. (Maybe indoctrination by our angry parents that had to leave their lives and a world behind for the sake of their families)

I'm not saying I'm right. I'm not saying they're wrong. I'm saying, this is all a matter of where you're seated. I am offering some context as to why there is some blind passion coming from exiled Cubans. It's far more emotional than it is rational. 

[Bijan]

9 minutes ago, ElJavi76 said:

Flip the coin, nearly every Cuban that has made it off the island has been programmed to hate the Castro regime and don't want a compromise. Castro free Cuba or bust. (Maybe indoctrination by our angry parents that had to leave their lives and a world behind for the sake of their families)

Seems even that is not universal, and depends in part on when they left the island:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/changing-their-minds-on-cuba/474612/