Light at the end of the tunnel ?

[El Presidente]

54 minutes ago, cfc1016 said:

Can we please just lock this thread?

No. 

It would be more useful to  learn how to respectfully argue/discuss contentious issues without abuse.  That is what is being done and I know full well it is grating on many. However, while there is a semblance of balance and willingness to discuss civilly, I will allow it 

For the record, we don't require 8 "report to mods" notices on this thread from the one person apparently mortified. 

[cfc1016]

6 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

No. 

It would be more useful to  learn how to respectfully argue/discuss contentious issues without abuse.  That is what is being done and I know full well it is grating on many. However, while there is a semblance of balance and willingness to discuss civilly, I will allow it 

For the record, we don't require 8 "report to mods" notices on this thread from the one person apparently mortified. 

Loud and clear.

[Vitola Corleone]

As someone who follows social distance and masking guidelines fairly carefully: I admit I share some of the skepticism. We don't really know what effect interventions like this have at population scale. For all the cases of "Place X did intervention Y so we can see how that intervention works" there is enormous variance we cannot explain. It does not help that following the policy recommendations is sometimes presented as a matter of settled science, or worse of personal moral worth -- of an individual, a group, or a whole nation. 

If all this were true, I have a hard time understanding why the infection rate among black and Latino Americans is some 5.7%, while it's only 2.1% among white Americans. Unlike the convenient implications of national level infection rates it is not so easy to ascribe these to difference in policy regimes or moral fortitude. For that matter it is hard to understand why it's 2.9% in France but 1% in Germany, vs. .5% in Norway or .1% in Australia. While I've yet to experience the charms of Australia in person, I've no doubt it has its act together as far as administrative capacities go. But so much better than Germany? 

What it means to me is, we don't really know how much the policy interventions (masks, distance) matter at an every day human scale, or how they are affected by density, climate, and lifestyles. Yes, we know micro-level mechanisms of disease transmission (droplets) and inhibition (blocking droplets with a mask), but we don't know how they scale up, and the cross sectional evidence suggests to me that other factors loom pretty large. Showing a mechanism of transmission or how to raise the probability of blocking it does not tell us the real world effect of an intervention. 

For me, it doesn't change the fact that masking and distancing is the best I can do for myself and others. Is it highly effective? Not sure. Is it the most effective thing there is? Seems so. The disease is a really big deal and that's enough for me. But I can't fault others for "just asking questions" when the tradeoffs are real, and it's not at all clear that the authorities are all that sensitive to some of them (your parent's funeral vs. their lobbyist's birthday party etc.).

[mprach024]

I wonder how many psychology dissertations are going to be written about the human reaction to this crisis 10, 20+ years from now....  
 

“There are three forms of denial. Simple denial is when the painful fact is denied altogether. Minimisational denial is when the painful fact is admitted but its seriousness is downplayed. Transference denial is when the painful fact is admitted, the seriousness also admitted, but one's moral responsibility in the situation involving the painful fact is downplayed.”

I think this resonates somewhat.

[LLC]

What’s the downside to wearing a mask, social distancing, washing hands etc. I don’t see any but not doing those things may give a higher likelihood of a bad outcome.


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[Bijan]

4 minutes ago, LLC said:

What’s the downside to wearing a mask, social distancing, washing hands etc. I don’t see any but not doing those things may give a higher likelihood of a bad outcome.


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Not much to mask wearing and hand washing. But social distancing may mean not seeing friends or family for a year or two, amongst other things. Bigger effect at some stages of life than others. Doesn't affect everyone the same.

[LLC]

Not much to mask wearing and hand washing. But social distancing may mean not seeing friends or family for a year or two, amongst other things. Bigger effect at some stages of life than others. Doesn't affect everyone the same.

I hear you. I went a couple of months without seeing my daughter in person but then started to get together in one of our backyards and just kept our distance.


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[Fuzz]

44 minutes ago, Vitola Corleone said:

While I've yet to experience the charms of Australia in person, I've no doubt it has its act together as far as administrative capacities go. But so much better than Germany? 

From my perspective, I think it had more to do with our closing our borders fairly early (despite several major stuff ups in NSW), and pushing for social/physical distancing. Plus, being one giant island, border control was a lot easier (same for NZ, but on a much smaller scale). Also mandating quarantining of international travelers/returning citizens helped reduce the the spread (again, with several major stuff ups along the way).

Yes, our Govt implemented assistance packages for SMEs and the unemployed (but not covering all, eg international students, people on temporary work visas), but they still made some bad judgement calls along the way. No one Govt is doing it perfectly right, just what they can to minimise the impact of the pandemic. It then falls on individuals to see if they want to think only for themselves, or for the rest of society as a whole.

[Bijan]

1 minute ago, LLC said:

I hear you. I went a couple of months without seeing my daughter in person but then started to get together in one of our backyards and just kept our distance.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, same sort of thing. My son is just over 1 and a lot of long walks with the stroller outside to see relatives this summer, but it's really starting to get cold out.

Just glad he was born before covid, can't imagine what that whole experience must be like this year (no visitors in hospital, etc.).

[Ken Gargett]

5 hours ago, Fuzz said:

From my perspective, I think it had more to do with our closing our borders fairly early (despite several major stuff ups in NSW), and pushing for social/physical distancing. Plus, being one giant island, border control was a lot easier (same for NZ, but on a much smaller scale). Also mandating quarantining of international travelers/returning citizens helped reduce the the spread (again, with several major stuff ups along the way).

Yes, our Govt implemented assistance packages for SMEs and the unemployed (but not covering all, eg international students, people on temporary work visas), but they still made some bad judgement calls along the way. No one Govt is doing it perfectly right, just what they can to minimise the impact of the pandemic. It then falls on individuals to see if they want to think only for themselves, or for the rest of society as a whole.

good post. the big island undoubtedly assisted. 

[El Presidente]

One for the knuckleheads who like to put forward the Red/Blue divide.  Stop. 

We have no interest in US politics as it pertains to Covid. Cuba yes.....Covid no. We can talk about the pro's and con's of lockdowns/masks/vaccines whatever as they are a global issue (that may come as a surprise to some) but we have no interest in the US domestic malaise. 

Your arguments may be valid so put them forward in a neutral manner, not a political one. 

[Nino]

Time to get back to the basics of this thread - Light at the end of the tunnel due to vaccines.

Today's NYT summary - looking good :

Moderna’s vaccine shows success in trials

The drugmaker Moderna announced on Monday that its coronavirus vaccine was 94.5 percent effective, based on an early look at results from its large, continuing study.

Researchers said the results were better than they had dared to imagine. But though the company plans to apply for emergency authorization from the U.S. drug authorities within weeks, the vaccine will not be widely available for months.

The vaccine has a longer shelf life than previously reported: It can last 30 days in the refrigerator and 12 hours at room temperature, according to Moderna, potentially making it easier to store and use.

The race: Moderna’s announcement came a week after Pfizer reported that its vaccine, developed in collaboration with BioNTech, was more than 90 percent effective. Ten other companies are, like Moderna and Pfizer, conducting big Phase 3 trials, including efforts in China, Russia, India and Australia. Check our vaccine tracker here.

Markets: Global markets were up on Monday over news of both the Moderna vaccine and a new Asia-Pacific free trade deal.

Official remarks: “I had been saying I would be satisfied with a 75 percent effective vaccine,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert. “Aspirationally, you would like to see 90, 95 percent, but I wasn’t expecting it. I thought we’d be good, but 94.5 percent is very impressive.”

[CaptainQuintero]

58 minutes ago, nino said:

Time to get back to the basics of this thread - Light at the end of the tunnel due to vaccines.

Today's NYT summary - looking good :

Moderna’s vaccine shows success in trials

The drugmaker Moderna announced on Monday that its coronavirus vaccine was 94.5 percent effective, based on an early look at results from its large, continuing study.

Researchers said the results were better than they had dared to imagine. But though the company plans to apply for emergency authorization from the U.S. drug authorities within weeks, the vaccine will not be widely available for months.

The vaccine has a longer shelf life than previously reported: It can last 30 days in the refrigerator and 12 hours at room temperature, according to Moderna, potentially making it easier to store and use.

The race: Moderna’s announcement came a week after Pfizer reported that its vaccine, developed in collaboration with BioNTech, was more than 90 percent effective. Ten other companies are, like Moderna and Pfizer, conducting big Phase 3 trials, including efforts in China, Russia, India and Australia. Check our vaccine tracker here.

Markets: Global markets were up on Monday over news of both the Moderna vaccine and a new Asia-Pacific free trade deal.

Official remarks: “I had been saying I would be satisfied with a 75 percent effective vaccine,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert. “Aspirationally, you would like to see 90, 95 percent, but I wasn’t expecting it. I thought we’d be good, but 94.5 percent is very impressive.”

 Hopefully, a real spark of light now. Apparently three more vaccines in the UK are reaching the end of their trials this month so potentially even more good news before Christmas

[Nino]

7 minutes ago, CaptainQuintero said:

 Hopefully, a real spark of light now. Apparently three more vaccines in the UK are reaching the end of their trials this month so potentially even more good news before Christmas

Absolutely correct - I am surprised Oxford hasn't released any news yet and hope for a similar success for them.
So let's make it through this winter and see the sun soon again ... ?

[RedLantern]

Such good news about the storage requirements. 

[mprach024]

5 minutes ago, RedLantern said:

Such good news about the storage requirements. 

Yes!  That will be huge.  

[Baccy]

What’s the downside to wearing a mask, social distancing, washing hands etc. I don’t see any but not doing those things may give a higher likelihood of a bad outcome.


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It can be kind of hard to breathe in one for extended periods of time, especially wearing a mask that actually works like n95. Most people basically wear a cloth flap. You can get a little hypoxia from breathing all that co2. I guess that means it's working properly. In spite of that I still wear one in crowded areas... or where it may be impossible to keep your distance.

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[Nino]

Some more good news - looks like we won't require repeated shots of the vaccine as immunity seems to last longer than expected - from today's NYT :

Immunity to the coronavirus may last years

Blood samples from recovered Covid-19 patients suggest a powerful immune response that could last years, and maybe even decades, researchers reported.

In the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date, the study found that most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness eight months after infection. These cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

Though not yet peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal, the research may come as a relief to those concerned that vaccines might have to be administered repeatedly to keep the pandemic under control.

Quote: “That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist who helped lead the new study.

Here are the latest updates and maps of the pandemic.

[Nino]

More good breaking news :
 

BREAKING NEWS

Pfizer completed its coronavirus vaccine trial. It says the shots are 95 percent effective, have no serious side effects and work for older people.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020 6:48 AM EST

The drug maker Pfizer offered on Wednesday the first set of complete results from a late-stage vaccine trial as Covid-19 cases skyrocket around the globe. The data showed that the vaccine prevented mild and severe forms of Covid-19, the company said. And it was 94 percent effective in older adults, who are more vulnerable to developing severe Covid-19 and who do not respond strongly to some types of vaccines. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/18/health/pfizer-covid-vaccine.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20201118&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta&regi_id=83141946&segment_id=44796&user_id=20e2ef107d129c8068f6a6f86ee4c0a5

[Nino]

Now who do I trust more - the vaccine or the B-737 MAX ..... ?

I think I trust the vaccine more ?

BREAKING NEWS

The F.A.A. cleared Boeing’s 737 Max to fly 20 months after it was grounded. Bad design, training and oversight were blamed for two fatal crashes.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020 7:56 AM EST

The Federal Aviation Administration on Wednesday cleared the way for Boeing’s 737 Max to resume flying, ending a devastating saga for the company. The Max was effectively grounded worldwide in March 2019 when the F.A.A. joined regulators in dozens of other countries in banning the plane after the crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia killed all 346 people on board.

Read the latest

[mtd057]

51 minutes ago, nino said:

Now who do I trust more - the vaccine or the B-737 MAX ..... ?

I think I trust the vaccine more ?

I agree with you 100% - that plane scares me

[Fuzz]

In other news, Pfizer are announcing the naming of their Covid-19 vaccine after the test batch (737) and scientist, Dr Arthur Maximilius, who helped develop it....

Covid-19 vaccine "B-737 Max" ....

[Nino]

1 hour ago, Fuzz said:

In other news, Pfizer are announcing the naming of their Covid-19 vaccine after the test batch (737) and scientist, Dr Arthur Maximilius, who helped develop it....

Covid-19 vaccine "B-737 Max" ....

@Fuzz Don't give me negative vibrations ....  ?

[CaptainQuintero]

On 11/18/2020 at 8:53 AM, Baccy said:

It can be kind of hard to breathe in one for extended periods of time, especially wearing a mask that actually works like n95. Most people basically wear a cloth flap. You can get a little hypoxia from breathing all that co2. I guess that means it's working properly. In spite of that I still wear one in crowded areas... or where it may be impossible to keep your distance.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

 My wife's been wearing an N95 from 06:30 to 13:30 then from 13:45 to 19:30 every shift since March, you'll be fine ?

  The only occurance of masks having any effect on oxygen saturation they've come across in 10 months was one 76 year old gentleman who came in wearing an N95 with three additional surgical masks on top and then a cloth covering on top of all that. His oxygen saturation was 94%, after removing the cloth and surgical masks but leaving the N95 on his sats went back up to 99% in 15 seconds

[CaptainQuintero]

  More good news on vaccine front, the Oxford trials have come in at 90% effective and only need regular refrigeration, cost has come in at £3 a dose too compared to £28 for the Moderna and £15 for the pfizer so should be a big help for poorer countries and those with hot climates

  Possible exit strategy on the cards now hopefully