I don't understand the Lockdown/shut down exit strategy?

[Kitchen]

2 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Purely based on scorecard at this stage of the game.  

Come back at full time for the wrap up but what happens in the final half is supposition right now.

My apologies el Prez and Ken.  

[El Presidente]

Just now, Kitchen said:

My apologies el Prez and Ken.  

Don't get me wrong, both of you are out of line. 

[Kitchen]

6 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Don't get me wrong, both of you are out of line. 

Well, I think it is high time that I quit instead of pressing on.  I initially read supposition as suspension, and thought maybe I am being too confrontational.  

[El Presidente]

Just now, Kitchen said:

  I initially read supposition as suspension, and thought maybe I am being too confrontational.  

You are a rookie. Ken has been suspended six times. 

[helix]

25 minutes ago, Kitchen said:

Well, I think it is high time that I quit instead of pressing on.  I initially read supposition as suspension, and thought maybe I am being too confrontational.  

No brother , enjoy your insights , stay with us. FFS you can get suspended 6 times like Ken and still be a member. LOL.?

[El Presidente]

2 minutes ago, helix said:

 FFS you can get suspended 6 times like Ken and still be a member. LOL.?

That record is not necessarily a badge of honour 

Next highest is three. 

Ken has always been an overachiever 

[Ken Gargett]

43 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

You are a rookie. Ken has been suspended six times. 

only six? and at least four of those were completely out of order. perhaps all six! i am a victim of persecution. 

i thought we were happily involved in a good discussion. swedish politics, not those of elsewhere, unless i misread what we both wrote. i came back from lunch looking forward to continuing and you have robbed us of that. i take it that isolation is making you even more grumpy than usual? 

you do realise that when i asked about our next video and you replied STFU, i have been thinking i must be an idiot because i had no idea which cigar that was. now i twig. 

[Cubadust]

I know that when you read about the way Sweden is handeling this it sounds like we all go about our daily lifes like nothing has happend but it's not like that. Myself and most of my friends have been isolated in our homes for about a month now, And I'd say that at this point looking at the number of deaths and number of infected is pretty pointless. Sweden, up until a week or so ago, just tested people in the healthcare system. That would be patients and people working there. I would guess that's one reason we got such a high death ratio. Also, in Sweden if a person dies and have corona it goes in to the statistics while in other countries covid have to be the cause of death to be counted. And there are lots of countries that doesn't count people that die at home or in nursing homes while we do.

I don't say that the Sweden way is the right way, but as long as we don't have the same ability to do broad testing and countries don't count deceased the same way the numbers and statistics doesn't say that much.

[SigmundChurchill]

5 hours ago, Cubadust said:

I know that when you read about the way Sweden is handeling this it sounds like we all go about our daily lifes like nothing has happend but it's not like that. Myself and most of my friends have been isolated in our homes for about a month now, And I'd say that at this point looking at the number of deaths and number of infected is pretty pointless. Sweden, up until a week or so ago, just tested people in the healthcare system. That would be patients and people working there. I would guess that's one reason we got such a high death ratio. Also, in Sweden if a person dies and have corona it goes in to the statistics while in other countries covid have to be the cause of death to be counted. And there are lots of countries that doesn't count people that die at home or in nursing homes while we do.

I don't say that the Sweden way is the right way, but as long as we don't have the same ability to do broad testing and countries don't count deceased the same way the numbers and statistics doesn't say that much.

Sweden is counting the deaths the correct way.  As a poster in another thread mentioned, people usually dont die from a virus, they die with a virus.  All those people we have on ventilators here in the US, are technically dying of ARDS, not COVID-19.  But it is COVID-19 that caused them to have ARDS.  People that die of a heart attack with COVID-19, are technically dying of myocardial infarction, but it is the COVID-19 that increased their work of breathing to such a point where the heart was not getting enough oxygen to meet it’s needs.  

A COVID positive patient who dies in a car accident should not be counted as a COVID-19 death, and no ethical doctor would put that on the death certificate.  But if we classified people by their literal “cause of death”, then almost nobody would die from COVID-19.  A test has never been a requirement for “cause of death” but for political reasons, some people here in the states feel like it should be for this particular disease.

We have a nursing home here that had 70 deaths within a matter of a few days.  It is safe to assume that COVID-19 was the reason.

If your clinical judgement leads you to believe that COVID-19 is what led to the death, then that is what should be written on the death certificate.  

There is an old “joke” in medicine.  When you dont know the actual cause of death, just write “Heart failure”.  You will never be wrong, because ultimately, everybody dies of heart failure.

We dont typically write JUST COVID-19 on the death certificate.  We write ARDS secondary to COVID-19, or pneumonia secondary to COVID-19, or congestive heart failure secondary to COVID-19.

[BoliDan]

50 minutes ago, SigmundChurchill said:

Sweden is counting the deaths the correct way.  As a poster in another thread mentioned, people usually dont die from a virus, they die with a virus.  All those people we have on ventilators here in the US, are technically dying of ARDS, not COVID-19.  But it is COVID-19 that caused them to have ARDS.  People that die of a heart attack with COVID-19, are technically dying of myocardial infarction, but it is the COVID-19 that increased their work of breathing to such a point where the heart was not getting enough oxygen to meet it’s needs.  

A COVID positive patient who dies in a car accident should not be counted as a COVID-19 death, and no ethical doctor would put that on the death certificate.  But if we classified people by their literal “cause of death”, then almost nobody would die from COVID-19.  A test has never been a requirement for “cause of death” but for political reasons, some people here in the states feel like it should be for this particular disease.

We have a nursing home here that had 70 deaths within a matter of a few days.  It is safe to assume that COVID-19 was the reason.

If your clinical judgement leads you to believe that COVID-19 is what led to the death, then that is what should be written on the death certificate.  

There is an old “joke” in medicine.  When you dont know the actual cause of death, just write “Heart failure”.  You will never be wrong, because ultimately, everybody dies of heart failure.

We dont typically write JUST COVID-19 on the death certificate.  We write ARDS secondary to COVID-19, or pneumonia secondary to COVID-19, or congestive heart failure secondary to COVID-19.

Right. I don't understand the logic in the argument. If covid is the catalyst of death no matter what the other complications were (i.e. diabetes) it is the cause. They would not have died from diabetes if they didn't contract the disease. The people that would have died regardless is such a low margin it inst even worth talking about.

I'm not really sure how this "miscounting deaths" theory gained any traction. If anything, there is more than we are currently reporting because of all the dead people at home, that we haven't found yet, as well as those that never been tested.

 

[SigmundChurchill]

12 minutes ago, BoliDan said:

Right. I dont understand the logic in the arguement. If covid is the catalyst of death no matter what the other complications were (i.e. diabetes) it is the cause. They would not have died if they didnt contract the disease. The people that would have died regardless os such a low margin it isnt even worth talking about.

I'm not really sure how this "miscounting deaths" theory gained any traction. If anything there is more than we are reporting because of all the dead people at home that we havent found yet, and never been tested

 

The CDC realized that we were grossly undercounting the number of COVID-19 deaths in NY.  At the time where the COVID death count in NYC was at 10,000, the number of total deaths (from all causes) were 13,000 higher than the normal average during that time period.  And this next part is very important, it is during a time period where deaths from other causes were at an all-time low, due to the lock downs.

They realized that many doctors were hesitant to put COVID-19 on the death certificates in people that were never tested, even if it was clinically obvious that COVID-19 was the culprit.  So they put out a statement to doctors that a test is not necessary for the diagnosis.  People with political agendas and conspiracy theorists, jumped at the chance to turn that into something done with nefarious intent.

[Habana Mike]

Exit strategy for Georgia in the US is apparently to open all the hair and nail salons, gyms, bowling alleys, restaurants, theaters and churches within the week.

Some by this Friday.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/brian-kemp-georgia-bowling-alley?fbclid=IwAR08OBRyASyUY9oMIUZb-vxB6KSz7kzaNXZ1R75RKOela6oYEKZKmkevev0

We'll remain in place until after the second spike subsides.....

[BoliDan]

2 hours ago, Habana Mike said:

Exit strategy for Georgia in the US is apparently to open all the hair and nail salons, gyms, bowling alleys, restaurants, theaters and churches within the week.

Some by this Friday.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/brian-kemp-georgia-bowling-alley?fbclid=IwAR08OBRyASyUY9oMIUZb-vxB6KSz7kzaNXZ1R75RKOela6oYEKZKmkevev0

We'll remain in place until after the second spike subsides.....

Ill send you some toliet paper. Youll be safe once you have that.

[Trimming]

Conditioning and learned behavior.

Implement our awareness 

We will all be more aware and cautious 

After the powers that be think it’s in place

That’s how we’ll exit lockdowns.

IMHO

[OZCUBAN]

Bite ones lip that’s what I do ,difficult at times though.......LOL

[Capt. Corona]

Exit strategy? What exit strategy?  There ain't no stinkin exit strategy! ?

 

[Kitchen]

Although I am remaining optimistic on treatment for this, I cant but help think about how it took us 20+ years to come up with a treatment for HIV with still no vaccine.  I realize these are completely different viruses, but if you look at the history of vaccines, they take much longer to produce in many cases then just a year.  

I feel it may be part science fiction fantasy that we will have a handle on this in a year, especially with it already mutating into three different strains.  

We need to start thinking about the fact that we may just have to get on with life without a treatment.  It's a sad thought, but none the less, we may just have to learn to live with this.  

[SigmundChurchill]

5 hours ago, Kitchen said:

Although I am remaining optimistic on treatment for this, I cant but help think about how it took us 20+ years to come up with a treatment for HIV with still no vaccine.  I realize these are completely different viruses, but if you look at the history of vaccines, they take much longer to produce in many cases then just a year.  

I feel it may be part science fiction fantasy that we will have a handle on this in a year, especially with it already mutating into three different strains.  

We need to start thinking about the fact that we may just have to get on with life without a treatment.  It's a sad thought, but none the less, we may just have to learn to live with this.  

3 strains?  That is so last week.

I know I said 3 strains last week, but information changes quickly with this virus.  A study was published on Sunday where Chinese researchers have identified 30 different strains of COVID-19, some of them far worse than others.  The worst strains have 270 times the pathogenicity and viral load of the “best” strains.  Very scary stuff.  This virus sucks.

Quote

Current genomic survey data suggest that single nucleotide variants (SNVs) are abundant. However, no mutation has been directly linked with functional changes in viral pathogenicity. Here we report functional characterizations of 11 patient-derived viral isolates, all of which have at least one mutation. Importantly, these viral isolates show significant variation in cytopathic effects and viral load, up to 270-fold differences, when infecting Vero-E6 cells. We observed intrapersonal variation and 6 different mutations in the spike glycoprotein (S protein), including 2 different SNVs that led to the same missense mutation. Therefore, we provide direct evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity.

Chinese Study

[Kitchen]

8 hours ago, SigmundChurchill said:

3 strains?  That is so last week.

I know I said 3 strains last week, but information changes quickly with this virus.  A study was published on Sunday where Chinese researchers have identified 30 different strains of COVID-19, some of them far worse than others.  The worst strains have 270 times the pathogenicity and viral load of the “best” strains.  Very scary stuff.  This virus sucks.

Chinese Study

[scap99]

Starting Monday, and lasting for 30 days, we have to wear masks in public or get fined 1,000 USD.

I don't know if the chart below is accurate, but maybe it does help slow the spread.

[alloy]

1 hour ago, scap99 said:

Starting Monday, and lasting for 30 days, we have to wear masks in public or get fined 1,000 USD.

I don't know if the chart below is accurate, but maybe it does help slow the spread.

Is that Houston? Or all of Texas? 

[scap99]

9 hours ago, alloy said:

Is that Houston? Or all of Texas? 

Houston and Harris County for sure.  Although I think Dallas and San Antonio are doing the same ...

[alloy]

Dallas county also. Collin County not yet.