I don't understand the Lockdown/shut down exit strategy?

[Ken Gargett]

10 hours ago, SigmundChurchill said:

I do understand what you are saying.  From my perspective, it would be hard to say that this is “overblown” though, because, as a doctor in the 21st century, I have never seen anything like this in my life.  The insides of our hospitals look like the apocalypse has arrived.  And while you may think that is an exaggeration, I am wondering if it is an understatement,  Every time I walk into the hospital, it feels like I am walking into the bowels of hell.  And I don't even believe in hell, but if I did, this is what I would imagine it would look like.  And all of the other hospitals in the NYC metro area are experiencing the same.  We have 6 ICUs which were all filled to capacity of people on ventilators a week ago, and now we have 10 other makeshift ICUs filled with patients on ventilators, and we are starting to convert more of the hospital into ICUs, which will soon be filled with people on ventilators.  And almost all of the patients on ventilators die.  In the last 2 days, we dropped our ventilator mortality rate down to 84%.  Normally, an 84% ventilator mortality rate would be our worst nightmare, but today, it is something to celebrate.  We have stopped doing anything else, besides taking care of COVID patients.  Even most cancer surgeries are on hold.  Our Morgue has been so filled to capacity, that we have been loading up 18 wheeler refrigerated cargo holds with bodies, being kept out in the doctors parking lot.  We are all walking around the hospital in protective gear from head to toe, and washing our hands 100 times a day after touching anything.  This all happened very quickly.

In contrast to the flu, every flu season, you wouldn’t even know that it is flu season in the hospital.  We may have 3 or 4 flue related pneumonia patients on a ventilator at any given time.  And the majority of them recover.

So, I really dont know what the right answer is.  Since any answer has horrible ramifications, I don't think anybody does.  Is the lock down futile?  Is the lock down keeping other areas of the country from becoming like this one?  I dont know the answer.  I do know that the health care system cant handle much more of this, so I have to hope it is at least slowing it down enough to give us a chance to breath in the near future.

Yesterday, as I was driving into the doctors’ lot, they were filling up another one of the cargo holds with bodies.  There have been several others filled before this one.  I snapped a couple pics, as a reminder to myself of how bad this really was, not that I think I will ever forget.

Sorry to those of you who are squeamish...

 

thanks for that report and best of luck to you, all the staff and families, and of course patients. horrendous stuff. but good to actually hear from someone at the coalface without an agenda. 

[Ken Gargett]

3 hours ago, Kitchen said:

Anyway, UK publications are also talking about how this shut down will bankrupt more then it saves, and how this is a real problem.  

 

i don't think anyone doubts that it is a massive problem and i don't think anyone really has the long term answer. competent governments should presumably be working on this at this very moment. it is all a little bit like some recent wars where a number of countries marched headlong into war (which may or may not have been justified but that is not for here) and clearly none of them had even thought about an exit strategy for a second. hopefully we have learnt.

yes, there will be many bankruptcies. as i have said, every chance i might end up among them. that said, ask every single potential bankrupt whether they would rather be bankrupt or dead and i think we all know the answer. or risk family and friends, ditto. 

also, using the self-proclaimed "number one source for oil and energy news" in arguing about the environment probably suggests a lack of credibility or simply a bias. 

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, Kitchen said:

 

Just look at environmentalism.  We know for a fact that people as a society don't care about the environment until they reach a certainly level of aggregate wealth.  

apparently you don't count youth 

1 hour ago, Kitchen said:

Poor countries just don't care about the environment because they can not afford to.  

except pacific island nations and those others facing  a perceived/real environmental abyss. 

 

2 hours ago, gweilgi said:

Without wishing to impugn, malign or slander any of the medical experts, but most of them outside the US work in the public sector.  

That is news to me. Most here would have a foot in both camps. 

[Kitchen]

4 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

apparently you don't count youth 

except pacific island nations and those others facing  a perceived/real environmental abyss. 

 

That is news to me. Most here would have a foot in both camps. 

You got me on the youth and island nation one.  But, I'd bet, even the youth in poor countries could care less, or at least they care more about the immediate need of eating and having shelter over the longer term need of fixing the environment. 

It has been the case for centuries that richer country always treasure the environment more.  

This make me think of a conversation I had (on another forum) with someone from a very rural area of South Africa.  Essentially he said who cares about this thing, we have more important stuff to worry about like getting food.  Kind of drives the point home.  

[El Presidente]

2 minutes ago, Kitchen said:

You got me on the youth and island nation one.  But, I'd bet, even the youth in poor countries could care less, or at least they care more about the immediate need of eating and having shelter over the longer term need of fixing the environment. 

It has been the case for centuries that richer country always treasure the environment more.  

Not looking to knit pick 

It is just that we can all be guilty of broad generalisations. 

What makes this situation so difficult is that there are deep complexities that will need to be teased with a surgeons touch.  That hasn't exactly been the human races strong point. 

[Kitchen]

19 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

i don't think anyone doubts that it is a massive problem and i don't think anyone really has the long term answer. competent governments should presumably be working on this at this very moment. it is all a little bit like some recent wars where a number of countries marched headlong into war (which may or may not have been justified but that is not for here) and clearly none of them had even thought about an exit strategy for a second. hopefully we have learnt.

yes, there will be many bankruptcies. as i have said, every chance i might end up among them. that said, ask every single potential bankrupt whether they would rather be bankrupt or dead and i think we all know the answer. or risk family and friends, ditto. 

also, using the self-proclaimed "number one source for oil and energy news" in arguing about the environment probably suggests a lack of credibility or simply a bias. 

But not a policy center at a left leaning university, right Ken.  Come one now; read the entire post!

You did not overlook the 2nd article I posted?  If not, why ignore it?

Right, center, left they all come up with the same conclusion.  Poor countries could give a rats ass over the enviroment because it is more important to eat now then save the enviroment over a decade or two.  

[Ken Gargett]

11 minutes ago, Kitchen said:

But not a policy center at a left leaning university, right Ken.  Come one now; read the entire post!

You did not overlook the 2nd article I posted?  If not, why ignore it?

Right, center, left they all come up with the same conclusion.  Poor countries could give a rats ass over the enviroment because it is more important to eat now then save the enviroment over a decade or two.  

i would treat your example of a left uni with just as much skepticism.

it is not that i am ignoring things, i simply have too much to do at the moment to enjoy a good old debate on these things.

but i would suggest your view of 3rd world countries is a touch generalistic (for want of a better word). no human on the planet would put causes, no matter how important, ahead of the immediate need of feeding their family. it is trite to suggest otherwise. that does not mean there are not a great many who are deeply concerned. take a look at the numbers of rangers and environmentalists in places like the amazon who have been murdered. they and others take on this task knowing that they are highly likely to suffer the same fate. ditto rangers in central africa. several hundred have died attempting to protect the gorillas. to be honest, to belittle their efforts and sacrifice, whether intentionally or not, is a bit ordinary.

i'd also suggest that when education is provided to the young in some of these countries, the level of importance they attach to the environment increases greatly. look at the communities around the virungas for an example. there are many others. 

[shippers]

16 hours ago, Eric05 said:

My thinking is the same as the Prez, the thought of stopping this by social distancing is not going to stop the initial wave. Sure what we are doing now is helping the hospitals. But the moment they lift the ban, if its spreading like it has already one person gets it and then boom its the affect all over. I do believe with some that it has been here already. In December, I got so sick, I was like shit for days. They tested me for the flu and I was negative. I am not one whom gets sick. I would believe I have a great immune system, "knocks on wood". But I can tell you it was the worst I have ever felt in my life. I am 34.

Same - I wouldn't want to be disrespectful to those who have definitely had it as I do not know for sure if I did but in January I might have.

Like you it was similar to flu. The main difference, non stop coughing - at night even worse - I couldn't sleep for days. Also, I had a tightness in my chest which made it quite hard to breathe at times. I am 29.

Worst "flu" I have ever had by a long way. Probably should have seen (via video) my GP.

[fastkiller13]

I live in northern NJ, near @SigmundChurchill and @ElJavi76  and I can say that the news and all the govt. announcements really made it seem like we’re winning and just another week or two and we are in the clear. With the caveat that the next two weeks will be the  worse thing most Americans have ever experienced. 

There were 18 wheelers at most of the larger hospitals in the area. I know someone who works at RWJ in New Brunswick and another friend who works at Mt. Sinai. I know the morgue was overflowing at Mt. Sinai over a week ago. My friend in New Brunswick calls me every day before work because him and his    co-workers are starting to lose it a bit.  

I was trained to deal with death and spent over 3 years fighting a war. I have several medical issues resulting from the wars. Severe mental stuff dealing with what I saw and did. I see my friends who are all Drs behaving like I did when I came home. I think many Drs. will quit after this, they should at least be given screenings for PTSD because they are all going to get it to some degree.  I don’t believe NY and NJ are reaching the peak. I think shit is going to hit the preverbal fan, and it’s our own fault. I live on a dead end Street and I haven’t seen as many cars in 2 years as I did today. My wife had to go to the post office and Then pick me up a few things from the pharmacy.  She said people were everywhere. No more wearing masks not staying 6’ away from each other. Every supermarket had a line of people waiting for their turn to shop, line wasn’t doing the 6’apart thing. 

As far as end game I see only one ending working out. Charging on in, but not blindly or without plans. There is only one way to survive an ambush, and that is to run straight at the guys shooting at you. Same principle here, Washington and CA have flattened the curve and hospitals are doing ok so we need to send out waves, open some Starbucks for a week see what happens and move from there. 
if we can keep the hospitals from being overrun we can drive the virus directly across the country controlling its spread, we will need to go a little China and lock things down. People can’t control themselves, we’re spoiled and entitled and don’t care about other people.
 

So what people will have to speak to their wife, divorce her if she bothers you that much. On the bright side cable is giving us all the channels no charge until the end of April. I can’t think of something I can’t have delivered to my front door, food, Amazon, Hookers and Cocaine, only after my wife has gone to bed for the last two. So we’re going to have to grow up, listen to the experts, and just accept that a bunch of people are going to die. In reality even a million people is nothing compared to our population so let them die. When the icu beds and respirators are gone, which most are used already, give the patient a bunch of morphine and explicitly tell them how much not to take wink wink ?.  

I know what I’m saying, but is our economy; our way of life outweighed by 100k-200k deaths  most of which are in poor health anyway. I have cancer myself, and if I get sick I’m going to die, that fact scares the shit out of me but it doesn’t scare me enough that I’m just going to stick my head in the ground and hope for the best. Our leaders need to stop blaming people and figure out what to do right now, then they need to do it. 650k Americans die every year due to heart disease, but no one is closing any burger kings. We also can’t afford to have what happened in Italy with the Drs dying happen here. So we should stay in our houses but realize we are going to have to expose ourselves a neighborhood at a time if it has to go that slow. 

My diagnosis and other brain injuries have seemingly made me mad however I don’t believe this.  The Devil always comes for his due, so let’s just pay the guy and get him the hell out of here; he kinda creeps me out.

Anyway that’s my 0.14$ and insane rant for the year  

Ted Reinhardt 

Fastkiller13

 

 

 

[Ryan]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned before but the best hope for a quick (months rather than a year or more) is re-purposing an existing vaccine to at least bring mortality rates down to seasonal flu levels (0.1% rather than 2% - 3%)

In the last few days a couple of studies have shown a strong correlation between BCG vaccination rates and Covid-19 mortality, I think trials have already started.

The BCG vaccine (tuberculosis) has been around for 100 years. Countries with a more robust BCG vaccination program are showing lower mortality rates from Covid-19 than others.

I think it's promising.

Here's some news.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/06/has-the-key-to-a-coronoavirus-vaccine-been-staring-us-in-the-face-for-a-century

[Kitchen]

8 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

i would treat your example of a left uni with just as much skepticism.

it is not that i am ignoring things, i simply have too much to do at the moment to enjoy a good old debate on these things.

but i would suggest your view of 3rd world countries is a touch generalistic (for want of a better word). no human on the planet would put causes, no matter how important, ahead of the immediate need of feeding their family. it is trite to suggest otherwise. that does not mean there are not a great many who are deeply concerned. take a look at the numbers of rangers and environmentalists in places like the amazon who have been murdered. they and others take on this task knowing that they are highly likely to suffer the same fate. ditto rangers in central africa. several hundred have died attempting to protect the gorillas. to be honest, to belittle their efforts and sacrifice, whether intentionally or not, is a bit ordinary.

i'd also suggest that when education is provided to the young in some of these countries, the level of importance they attach to the environment increases greatly. look at the communities around the virungas for an example. there are many others. 

True on the rangers and what not.  However, we are talking about societies and people, not individuals.  There are always exceptions to what a society thinks.  The question is at what point does the entire society change?  I contend when there is no longer a need to worry about getting food and shelter.  

[JohnnyO]

For those that had these severe colds/coughs that might have been mis-identified did you follow up with your physician as to the possibility of a mix up? The reason why I ask is here in Florida many have had to be re-tested for incorrect results. Also, were any medicines/antibiotics used?

[JohnnyO]

12 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Not looking to knit pick 

It is just that we can all be guilty of broad generalisations. 

What makes this situation so difficult is that there are deep complexities that will need to be teased with a surgeons touch.  That hasn't exactly been the human races strong point. 

Prez...Havana is probably one of the most polluted cities in the world. Get out to the country and the quality of air is totally different. The same can be said about Caracas, Mexico City or any industrialized Mexican city. There are several countries in Central America that have masses of floating garbage at the beach. Haiti is an ecological disaster. What do they have in common? Its been like that for years and they don't care. Sorry to generalize but I don't see it any other way. BTW, here in Miami they throw masks, gloves, wipes in the grocery store parking lots like condoms at a drive in movie theater. John

[rcarlson]

It's interesting to me that we debate the state of things, where we're going, and where we end up as though the competing viewpoint is wrong, or at least likely to be proved wrong based on what is known.

The reality is that everyone is right. 

I don't mean that in a Rodney King way.  I mean it in a Schrodinger's Cat way.

All of the models and what they say about what to do are only as good as the data and assumptions put into them.  They're entirely subject to our limitations and biases.  As to our prognostications of the virus, nobody really knows what they're talking about. Since predictive modeling is only as good as the data put in, if you think there's a massive threat, there’s a model for you.  If you think we’re descending into a police state without good reason, there’s a model for you too.  

Back in January, Fauci said the virus was not a major threat.  We know that is wrong now.  But was it wrong back in January?  He was operating from the best information available, until better information came along. He then adjusted his thinking. 

Whatever you say about the virus, we're all speaking from even less knowledge than Fauci. He was working from what China and the WHO were saying, which was bullshit.  As I type, we don't even know the true mortality rate because we don't have the testing and data necessary to make the determination.  

One thing we do know is that millions and millions have no idea where their next paycheck will come from and have never been dependent on the government, and ones that are headed towards theoretical insolvency at best, actual insolvency at worst. 

There is no moral crime in thinking we need to get back to work. 

At the same time, there is no moral crime in thinking we need to contain the virus, even if at profound economic costs. 

We are all right. . . today.      

[Riverstyx]

3 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

There is no moral crime in thinking we need to get back to work. 

At the same time, there is no moral crime in thinking we need to contain the virus, even if at profound economic costs. 

I agree with this wholeheartedly but there are many that will only look at their side and try to make it personal.  When we're talking about people's lives, many people (understandably) just can't handle being objective.  

[OZCUBAN]

Hi all, haven’t had a chance to read all the posts on this thread yet ,but to answer your question Rob based on what I know ,(as much as anyone I guess).

Your dead right in your assessment mate. There is no exit strategy until there is a mass manufacturing Vaccine available, it’s a brave new world now.

what is normal now, someone said to me the other day “ no one saw this coming “ I said Bullshit .the writings been on the wall for quite a long time now ,and no one did anything about it.a lesson painfully learned .this year will be remembered for a long long time ...

cheers stay safe 

 

[JohnnyO]

How about this exit strategy:

100% duties on anything coming in from China until ALL debts are satisfied

After all it is Chinas fault why we are sitting at home

[LordAnubis]

3 hours ago, JohnnyO said:

How about this exit strategy:

100% duties on anything coming in from China until ALL debts are satisfied

After all it is Chinas fault why we are sitting at home

AHahahah... good luck with that.

Their fault? Really? I'm not saying they have done a fantastic job or anything. They did exactly the same thing any other country would have done. Didn't jump to conclusions, suppressed a few things, then when it got too big they just ran away and said nothing. I mean, even with 100 times more knowledge now, what are some of the most developed countries doing? Not much in terms of containing themselves. I bet no large economy would shut down to contain a virus within itself to protect the world. Not. A. Single. One. This would have been exactly the same outcome in any other country, except racists wouldn't have this as an excuse for why their country has failed to protect itself.

That is the beauty of contagions. It's mother natures way of sticking it to you. We as humans cant, or are hesitant to, see the pieces of the puzzle. You can spot a new virus, but it's unknown at the time what it is, how bad it is, how it spreads, how fast it spreads, how fast it dies etc. Even the whole person to person transmission thing. You can't know straight away its contagious person to person. They're only just now suspecting its "aerosolised", why didn't any country jump to this conclusion straight away? Because you don't cause a mass panic about things that you don't know... yet.

[Riverstyx]

6 minutes ago, LordAnubis said:

his would have been exactly the same outcome in any other country, except racists wouldn't have this as an excuse for why their country has failed to protect itself.

 

Whoa! Easy with calling people racists. He said nothing racist at all. You assume he’s talking about Chinese people and xenophobia. I assume he’s talking about an oppressive communist government. Either way, they’re assumptions and not what he said. 

[LordAnubis]

13 minutes ago, Riverstyx said:

Whoa! Easy with calling people racists. He said nothing racist at all. You assume he’s talking about Chinese people and xenophobia. I assume he’s talking about an oppressive communist government. Either way, they’re assumptions and not what he said. 

My whole post was about pointing out that they did just as same a thing as any other country would have reasonably done. I'm pointing out that this is the view that's derailing efforts that should be pointed towards a solution to the problem, not laying blame on past transgressions. There's a long list of that with every single if that's what we're doing.

[El Presidente]

9 minutes ago, Riverstyx said:

Whoa! Easy with calling people racists. He said nothing racist at all. You assume he’s talking about Chinese people and xenophobia. I assume he’s talking about an oppressive communist government. Either way, they’re assumptions and not what he said. 

I am pretty sure Mus wasn't calling JO racist. 

You can take a stick to the Chinese Government for a host of reasons  but the west has been too gutless and too greedy for too long. I am all for a significant Tariff on Chinese goods but that has nothing to do with the CV19. It has to do with currency manipulation underpinning an unfair manufacturing advantage.  It has nothing to do with "racism". 

[TheGipper]

54 minutes ago, LordAnubis said:

suppressed a few things

That's a strange turn of phrase for "disappeared/murdered numerous doctors, professors, and journalists".

[Hammer Smokin']

In my quest to understand, when I read who is putting "blame" on both China as well as the W.H.O, appears it comes from one particular source country.

For example, when googling w.h.o fault or china fault, all the media responses are from once source. Are there other countries in the world also placing blame (or heavy fault if you prefer) on China or W.H.O.?

Would be interested in hearing some other countries supporting the same message.

[El Presidente]

WHO is a disgrace. 

China is China

 

Media here has been critical of both.   

[FOHrty9er]

Y'all are teetering on political discussions here...