Diesel and petrol car ban: Plan for 2040

[El Presidente]

There is plenty of stories on the UK announcement.

I give it no chance of getting up but I am dismayed at the complete absence of detail. Welcome to the existing global politik. 

 

1. Huge announcement. 

2. Affects almost all the population. 

3. Transforms industry on a multitude of levels. 

 

Click below to listen at the detailed plan 

 

 

This is leadership?

I despair at the state of politics in this world.  

[El Presidente]

Petrol cars will vanish in 8 years, says US report from Stanford economist

Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/energy/oil/petrol-cars-will-vanish-in-8-years-says-us-report-from-stanford-economist-20170514-gw4r0u#ixzz4oGl5ccda 
 

I am not sure if anywhere in the article it discusses the infrastructure required for a "mass migration" to electric cars.  8 years?

[99call]

17 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

There is plenty of stories on the UK announcement.

I give it no chance of getting up but I am dismayed at the complete absence of detail. Welcome to the existing global politik. 

 

1. Huge announcement. 

2. Affects almost all the population. 

3. Transforms industry on a multitude of levels. 

 

Click below to listen at the detailed plan 

 

 

This is leadership?

I despair at the state of politics in this world.  

HHmmm Yep I completely agree, but If you were in the UK right now, you'd realise, we are in all sort of trouble and promises-smomisis about whatever,  is nothing compared to the savage reality of Brexit.  Tony Blair said by 2050 60% of the UK would have solar roofs, not happening, not gonna happen, and very sad that it wont.

[99call]

If politicians agreed to travel around London on methane created by their own BS, that would save us at least a few years from apocalypse 

[gweilgi]

4 hours ago, toofargone said:

Take petrol and diesel cars off the road and build 10 new power stations to cope with the electricity requirement... that's smart... extra pollution to get rid of pollution... the cost of putting charging stations everywhere will be huge.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk
 

Eco warrior logic, that ....

They hate combustion, and they never think about the ramifications and drawbacks.  They cycle to work and to the shops, never bothering to think what it takes to keep those stores stocked with their free range organic macro-biotic gluten-free fair-trade vittles.  They think electricity can be had from wind and sun, but never stop to consider what happens when the wind dies and the sun goes down.  They like electric vehicles but it never occurs to them to ask what is involved in actually manufacturing all those batteries.  They live in high density urban environments and have no clue how life works out in the countryside.  And they only start to ask those questions once diesel-powered lorries are no longer on the roads to deliver their free-range tofu, when green tax fuel surcharges on air travel mean they can no longer go on those scenic cycling holidays in countries where people still live in tune with nature (aka "starve"), and when we all have to live with Soviet-style electricity curfews.  And to top it all off, they fully and confidently expect the state to pay for it all because they have never grasped the connection between productivity and tax revenues.

Personally, I have worked the numbers.  By 2040 I will be 74 ... so I can go out and buy myself a brand-new Aston Martin in 2039 and drive it until I die.  And if I still feel cranky then, I will take off the exhaust filters when I get it.  

 

[planetary]

The industry needs to communicate the plan and data better, that's for sure.  But there's a mountain of detail and that will never make the news.  Only those who are interested will engage with the data and be educated enough to render an opinion.  The rest of the population will complain that there's apparently no plan, or if there is a plan, then the idiots didn't consider this problem, or that problem.  Because if they *had* then their favorite news network or talking head would have said so, right?

...

On the whole, I'm very glad to see more people really listening to the data and setting a bold direction -- even if some of the details need to be worked out.  It still may be too little too late, because the world is full of scientific illiterates, and because humanity lacks the coordination to avoid game theory penalties among nation-state players.

[El Presidente]

58 minutes ago, planetary said:

The industry needs to communicate the plan and data better, that's for sure.  But there's a mountain of detail and that will never make the news.

I honestly missed the part of how 32 million cars move to electrical power in 23 years.  I have really tried to find out how.  Just because you ask the question doesn't make you a climate denier/sceptic. 

• Generation of power.
• Price effects of on power
• Recharging network infrastructure. 
• Value of motor vehicles.  How would it be handled. Buy back schemes? compensation? 
• MV and allied Industry. 

'Only those who are interested will engage with the data and be educated enough to render an opinion.  The rest of the population will complain that there's apparently no plan, or if there is a plan, then the idiots didn't consider this problem, or that problem'

Hang-on.....I want to engage with the data! .....I just can't find it.  Until I find it (and I assume for purposes of riguer the plan has been tested and debated with counterplans and the one put forward is the best) then I am not educated enough to render an opinion? Wow.  

If the Politicians and intelligentsia don't want to take the people onboard with their plans then the uneducated (or uninvited...or voters ) will fill in the void themselves. Example: Did Uber, Tesla or Google just buy a government?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Fuzz]

1 minute ago, El Presidente said:

I honestly missed the part of how 32 million cars move to electrical power in 23 years.  I have really tried to find out how. 

• Generation of power.
• Price effects of on power
• Recharging network infrastructure. 
• Value of motor vehicles.  How would it be handled. Buy back schemes? compensation? 
• MV and allied Industry. 

Again, I have tried to find detail beyond "wind and solar". 

 

 

 

 

You forgot "prayer" and "blind hope".

[Shaunster]

Dont forget refining oil also requires energy, and a lot of it. Electric vehicles may be flawed, manufacturing the batteries is incredibly polluting and then there is a major disposal headache at end of life, that said its good to see intention to move to something cleaner in the future and 2040 is a long way into the future, think back 23 years and how much the world has changed, its not an impossible target by any stretch of imagination but it will require investment and the UK like most western countries cant afford it.

[Ken Gargett]

7 hours ago, 99call said:

 Tony Blair said by 2050 60% of the UK would have solar roofs, not happening, not gonna happen, and very sad that it wont.

presumably they would have gutters designed to catch all the rain?

[Akela3rd]

presumably they would have gutters designed to catch all the rain?

Each with a mini hydro on the down pipe. Perfect.

Thunder & Lightening '75-'15

[ayepatz]

I've just bought a V8. While I still can.

[Ken Gargett]

27 minutes ago, ayepatz said:

I've just bought a V8. While I still can.

better!!

[99call]

2 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

presumably they would have gutters designed to catch all the rain?

Ha.   Who needs the Sun?  we can simply radiate in the smugness blast fall off emanating from Aussie! .  Jokes aside, I actually had to recently invest in a set of XL gutters, as they my old ones couldn't take the punishment, now thats depressing.

[Pixa]

HHmmm Yep I completely agree, but If you were in the UK right now, you'd realise, we are in all sort of trouble and promises-smomisis about whatever,  is nothing compared to the savage reality of Brexit.  Tony Blair said by 2050 60% of the UK would have solar roofs, not happening, not gonna happen, and very sad that it wont.

Not as far off as you would think, developers are having to put in solar panels on new housing to get planning permission. New Tory government cut funding is why the target won't be hit.

This petrol/diesel proposal is only affecting new cars from that date and is only sole petrol/diesel so basically saying all cars need to be electric hybrids.

[JamesKPolkEsq]

Question to you all: Have you ever driven an electric car?

I purchased one (Nissan Leaf), and I find it to be the absolutely perfect supplemental car. It goes 70ish miles per charge, costs roughly $20 USD a month in electricity and is actually relatively zippy and fun to drive. Best part about it was that the secondary market  value (like most technology) drops off a cliff, which means that the car - MSRP $36,500 - cost $6,000.

Oh, and there is nearly zero maintenance cost. And I never have to take time out of my day to stop to fuel. And in California, I have access to high-occupancy vehicle lanes. Be realistic: how many days a week do you drive over 70 miles (those with horrendous commutes excepted)?

It would be impossible to have this as the family's only conveyance, but as a second car it is incredible. It plugs into a standard 110V outlet, and I trickle charge it overnight when rates are low.

I realize 100% electric car seems crazy at this point in time, but I am a convert to the electric car myself. 

[dageshi]

Honestly, sounds reasonable enough to me. The UK is a relatively small country, the distances people generally travel are small compared to say the USA, I'm pretty sure the government talked to the car manufacturers and basically said "look when are you lot going to have working electric cars that can do the average mileage the average UK car does in a day without having to recharge"? They said 2040 and that was that.

Also, we're talking cars here, I'm expecting heavier vehicles that work for a living aren't going to be covered by this because the power to weight/distances traveled isn't there yet.

 

[planetary]

10 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I honestly missed the part of how 32 million cars move to electrical power in 23 years.  I have really tried to find out how.  Just because you ask the question doesn't make you a climate denier/sceptic. 

• Generation of power.
• Price effects of on power
• Recharging network infrastructure. 
• Value of motor vehicles.  How would it be handled. Buy back schemes? compensation? 
• MV and allied Industry. 

'Only those who are interested will engage with the data and be educated enough to render an opinion.  The rest of the population will complain that there's apparently no plan, or if there is a plan, then the idiots didn't consider this problem, or that problem'

Hang-on.....I want to engage with the data! .....I just can't find it.  Until I find it (and I assume for purposes of riguer the plan has been tested and debated with counterplans and the one put forward is the best) then I am not educated enough to render an opinion? Wow.  

If the Politicians and intelligentsia don't want to take the people onboard with their plans then the uneducated (or uninvited...or voters ) will fill in the void themselves. Example: Did Uber, Tesla or Google just buy a government?

You raise a very fair distinction: between the data needed to motivate a bold action to control the global climate (which is impressive), and content of the plan to execute the goal given by UK leadership (which is thin).

As regards the 32 million cars in the UK: the key point to the plan, as I understand it, is that petrol and diesel car sales will stop.  Nobody's taking them off the road.  

But I think you're right that this is mostly a statement of direction, feasibility studies, and isn't yet assembled into a coherent plan.    For those of us who work in the business world, directional goals which require detailed planning are de rigeur.   It should be feasible, given enough attention and investment and discipline.  Getting there still poses challenges.  But that's ok.  And in the worst case, the plan will be amended -- but the direction seems, to me, excellent.

 

[JamesKPolkEsq]

1 hour ago, Weaponiz'd1 said:

Im one of those oddballs. It's 67 miles(one way) to my job. 

So if I was able to make it there, I'd have to plug in to their power to charge for my return home, barring any errands I may have to run after work.

Who is going to pay for all the power needed to charge vehicles? 

Will it be like metered parking? 

Where is the power to charge going to come from? Coal? Hydro? Solar? Wind? Nuclear?

There's many a question that still needs to be answered before regulations like above are put in place. 

Being a penny pinching tightwad, you can bet your butte I'll be all over it if it softens the blows to my wallet. 

 

My particular car is certainly not for everyone. But the same could be said for nearly every internal combustion car as well. However, this is nascent technology. Look at the difference between the first iPhones and the current iPhones. They are nearly unrecognizable in comparison!

The new versions of these cars can go 220+ miles for the same MSRP. That would certainly fit your use case, with range to spare for errands.

Who is going to pay for the power? - Just like gasoline, the consumer. 

Will it be like metered parking? - Have you seen any parking lots that are shaded by solar panels? They are going up all around in my neighborhood (yes, in 2017). Imagine turning parking lots into additional revenue streams. The value proposition really makes quite a bit of economic sense.

Where is the power coming from? - California currently has so much power (thanks to installed solar) that we have to PAY Arizona/Nevada to take it.

There are structural hurdles to overcome to be sure, but the faster we can reduce our collective dependence on foreign oil, the better off we all will be.

 

[dageshi]

1 hour ago, Weaponiz'd1 said:

Im one of those oddballs. It's 67 miles(one way) to my job. 

So if I was able to make it there, I'd have to plug in to their power to charge for my return home, barring any errands I may have to run after work.

 

 

The tesla model 3 out this year will have a 220 miles range and cost $35k USD, in the UK that'd cover most peoples needs (and your own?) and price wise is pretty comparable with a lot of BMW/Audio/Mercs you see on the road. And that's this year, it's 23 till they stop selling petrol/diesel cars, I reckon they'll improve on that some...

 

 

[GasGuy82]

2 hours ago, Weaponiz'd1 said:

Im one of those oddballs. It's 67 miles(one way) to my job. 

So if I was able to make it there, I'd have to plug in to their power to charge for my return home, barring any errands I may have to run after work.

Who is going to pay for all the power needed to charge vehicles? 

Will it be like metered parking? 

Where is the power to charge going to come from? Coal? Hydro? Solar? Wind? Nuclear?

There's many a question that still needs to be answered before regulations like above are put in place. 

Being a penny pinching tightwad, you can bet your butte I'll be all over it if it softens the blows to my wallet. 

 

I work for a utility. I can tell you that the long range forecast is that our revenue from providing power to homes will decrease dramatically over the next 20 years and that much of that revenue will be recouped by building electric vehicle charging stations. Nothing will be free...

[PigFish]

Unfortunately for me, central planning has left me with a historical perspective that leads to inevitable failure. Only market forces will actually bring functioning, truly economic solutions to this, and when it happens, it will reduce the cost of vehicles and the energy to convey them and as a force will be unstoppable. One will know it when one sees it... It will not require government subsidy and tax games.

I do think that cell phones are a great example (from above). I remember paying around $1500 for my first 'car phone' in my '85 Vette. Talk time was 1.00/ minute.

Even the 'poor' today have cell phones! This is what competition looks like, and what advantages it brings.

I say bring on the electric cars... although I have to laugh at times when I see the Tesla owners stacked up at the mall all wasting their time to get some 'juice' for their vehicles. I suppose if you have nothing better to do during the day than sit in the mall parking lot, in your car while it charges, that is okay.

Like all things government subsidized it appears to come on the back of the guy at the bottom. He pays the fees here and there and does not know why nor complain. The gardener who is driving his beat up Datsun to move his lawnmower from residence to residence is paying the 40-50-60 cents per gallon tax on fuel while the rich guy motors along in his 100K Tesla in the HOV lane. This is insane and it is counterproductive.

The problem with central planning, as always is that it is the guy in the middle and at the bottom that foots the bill for a rich group of businessmen and executives that want to feel good about themselves and as usual it ignores the real problems in a market system. Frankly if I am going to pay a subsidy (in the form of taxes and fees) I would rather see the gardener get a new electric truck and let him get to place the place the quickest. Let the contractor that is hauling his load to the job site, along with his crew in his vehicle so that the downstream effect changes the cost of labor and benefits the next guy down the block... This does not work today because like most things centrally planned, it works from the top down and not the bottom up.

The bottom up was the Honda Civic... Look at Honda today! The Honda Civic did not need the government to support its sale. It was apparent to the market. This cannot be said about the Tesla... or the 4.5 billion that it has received in some other persons tax money...!

Making sure that some CEO can get to his helipad faster by driving his electric car down a special lane made for him does zippo for the actual guy that is paying HIS taxes, AND NOT GETTING HIS SUBSIDIES!!!

-the Pig

[skalls]

I could see petrol/diesel cars/trucks disappearing in large cities.  by 2040.   I don't see that ever happening in rural america.  I could barely get from my house to my brothers place without a long charge with existing EV vehicles.

10 minutes to fill up 30ish gallons of gas, take a piss, and buy a snack at a gas station is a hell of a lot more efficient for me.

[skalls]

25 minutes ago, Weaponiz'd1 said:

Myself included. I have to have a diesel...with range. I tow too much for anything else to be feasible, at this time. 

Heck, it's 92 miles to the launch at the coast for me from here. How big of a battery pack would it take to move 8klbs of truck and 10k lbs of boat that far?

Friend of mine has a 2015 F150 and towed a rather big boat from New Hampshire to Minnesota.  Managed 16mpg on that trip.  I bet that would be a week plus trip on batteries.

I do think EV is the future, but the infrastructure and charging time has to get close to what fuel does now otherwise your not going to see widespread adoption.  And I doubt very much people will be for EV if basic goods cost three times as much bc shipping costs skyrocketed.

[Fugu]

2 hours ago, PigFish said:

Like all things government subsidized it appears to come on the back of the guy at the bottom. He pays the fees here and there and does not know why nor complain. The gardener who is driving his beat up Datsun to move his lawnmower from residence to residence is paying the 40-50-60 cents per gallon tax on fuel while the rich guy motors along in his 100K Tesla in the HOV lane. This is insane and it is counterproductive.

You know I hate it mate, but I have to agree with you on that one Piggy! This is a basic system failure, but doesn't change anything to the fundamental need to get away from fossil energy, better sooner than later!