Greece referendum results - Overwhelming 'No' vote to latest IMF Bailout offer

[LordAnubis]

Yeah i know it's compulsory, but that doesn't mean we have 100% attendance. Ahh here is some data.

http://www.idea.int/vt/countryview.cfm?id=15

No idea on the source but that's in the ball park of what i expect to be a reasonable attendance rate (a bit lower than i would think thought really).

So what this tells me is that 60% of 60%, so 35% of the total greek population voted No. 25% voted yes, and 40% didn't bother. Make of that what you will.

[paulF]

wow. thanks for that. amazing. people are voting no because they are sick of economic depression. so they are blaming everyone but themselves - they are the bernard tomic of europe.

temporary coupons is one thing but then i saw that they might print E20 notes. i can't imagine where this might all lead if that happens but it will be much, much uglier than what we have now.

Another bombshell , Varoufakis resigned or more like forced to resign...

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/

Will be interesting to see what will happen to the AUD between this and the Shanghai Stock exchange crashing!

[JohnS]

Wow...that is big news! So it seems now they (Greece) will be re-negotiating for better terms and seek to remain in the European Union.

[GasGuy82]

any bets on how much the Euro drops against the dollar tomorrow when the capital inflows really take hold?

[JohnS]

Would a minimum 2-5% be a conservative guess?

[GasGuy82]

Would a minimum 2-5% be a conservative guess?

I'm thinking so. It will actually be terrible for the dollar. I remember about 3 months back GS released their 3 years outlook for the USD-Euro and they pegged it at $.90. Considering they have been a participant as well as many other institutions, I have to believe they know where this is going.

[soutso]

may i just say that it is nice you think you help us. we (and allow me to include WA), in return, are happy that our decades of providing mineral richness to the rest of the country are finally apparently bringing its reward.

as for the origin period, i won't touch a nsw wine or let a car with nsw plates take right of way, so i understand the sentiment.

Well the example I used was theoretical, I didn't look for an actual real life example. I am certain that our whole country has benefitted from the natural resources WA and Qld are blessed with. That said, our Qld friends receive more GST revenue on an equal per capita basis than we do here in NSW. The whole country does with the exception of NSW and Victoria. I don't have any issue with it, your state is most welcome to this assistance.

As for the origin period, you may wish to rethink your driving tactics as only our nutters and gluttons for punishment go to Qld during the Origin period.

[Ken Gargett]

As for the origin period, you may wish to rethink your driving tactics as only our nutters and gluttons for punishment go to Qld during the Origin period.

seems they never stop coming.

but i feel safe with such tactics as they are either the southern filth (which i mean in the most kind way imaginable but this is origin period) or they are qlders driving a car with nsw plates and therefore deserving of shaming.

[Dave O)))]

I'm guessing all the smartest Greeks left Greece a long time ago.

I left QLD 30 years ago, not by choice mind you, I was only 12. But I still barrack for them. I have been known to drive a NSW registered car in QLD on occasion. What does that say about me? Should I be ashamed, Ken?

[CigarDarr111]

This all the work of the boys over at Goldman Sachs and previous Greek administration. My prediction, Greece leaves the EU and prints thier own currency. Taking it back to the good ol Gold Standard, I'm not a economist but it would sure be interesting to see all these fiat currency printers squirm at the site of a currency backed by gold, it would sure shake things up on a global level forsure. Muahahaha

[stigmata]

They have options.

The Greek govt engineered a great plan on putting the big squeeze on.

If the troika deal the others will debt a reduction

If they don't deal Greece will blame them for making them walk away from the debt to say the BRICS who were created for this

Its the Germans with the problem

Their largest bank the Deutsche Bank is holding a trillion Euros of derivatives

I'm not sure what most people understand about this but if Greece walks and flimsy economies like Italy Ireland Portugal Spain need to pick up the slack. I'll give you one guess which way they're going to head

Music stops banks like the Deutsche Bank are left holding the derivatives. Deutsche Bank is dead in the water so is Germany and the EU.

Now before you start talking about responsibility

It's only paper money.. Printed up out of thin air..and loaned.. Irresponsibly I may add.

It's the sub prime real estate ponzi scheme all over again..

This time it's the Deutsche bank playing Lehmann brothers..

No wonder they're all poo scared.. And Angela and schaubble(?) Look serious.

Greece will go for the throat here. Knowing that is the EU didn't bend they have an out..

What's this all mean for the rest of us? Who knows it's unchartered waters.. But out won't be good..

[wabashcr]

Greece certainly made their own bed in all of this, but it seems to me that the euro position is being largely driven by private lenders, which feels wrong to me. Lenders realize they're never getting their money, so they're going to try to squeeze as much as they can get from Greece, with no eye at all toward getting Greece back on the right track to prosperity. If you look at the austerity measures the Greeks have taken, and the results, I don't blame them for voting NO. Of course nobody wants Greece to leave the euro, but at this point, Greece can't be afraid to leave. I don't think anyone knows entirely what that may entail. But the euro troika clearly only care about getting their money. And they don't care how much suffering their demands inflict on the Greek people. We're reaching the point that Greece may have a better chance at recovery without being hamstrung by the euro.

[stigmata]

CigarDarr111 yanis V for victory the Greek economy boss who just resigned said last week in an interview. The Greeks had to smash their printer when they joined the EZ.

I think that was so people don't freak out. Wouldnt be hard to have money printed in Turkey or Russia.. Hell the Chinese world do a few containers for next to nothing of the stuff..

Personally I'm expecting a two tier currency economy.

Could be drachma bolted onto the Euro at say 30%/reduction plus Euros.. Or even bitcoin out similar and Euros.

It's not that hard

[stigmata]

It's fascinating stuff and I'm really interested to see how this all plays out.

It's not as cut and dry against Greece as people think.

Iceland is doing a great recovery.

Like I said Germany has the bigger problem.

[Puros Y Vino]

An interesting article illustrating that the Greeks are not entirely blameless in this mess. NYPost Article.

[Orion21]

The Greeks will recover. Debt is insidious and to have repaid the bailout and prospered the people of Greece would have needed to be rewired out of their backward socialist economic ideals. Now they will be forced to actually work for themselves vs depending on the state or the EU to prop themselves up.

The rest of the world will have their own "Greek Moment" at some point in the future. Just look at the financials for the vast majority of developed countries. Their unrealized liabilities is into the hundreds of trillions of dollars. Shoot, the USA alone has over 16 trillion in debt and over 120 trillion in unfunded liabilities to it's populace. It's not a disaster, yet, because there is still high demand for treasuries, but what if that changes? What happens if interest rates go up 100-200 basis points and the cost to fund the debt rises the same amount? It's scary to think the result of a wider EU crisis or the chickens coming home to roost in the US . . .

[Hash]

Greece out of the European Union is a blow to Germany and France that worked so hard to build the European Union post WWII. I believe a compromise is in the working , a mix of debt relief and hard steps taken by Syrizia.The Euro zone is susceptible to such crisis because of the different levels of development between the member states.

[in0gravity]

I find it amazing how you guys and others view this from outside Europe. Really interesting.

Initially I didn't want to post something on this because this whole situation is getting on my nerves and this is a cigar forum . But I changed my mind and I have to get this off my chest. Some of you think there will be a deal done in the future. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. With the referedum on Sunday and the clear no to Help, the greeks also said no to Europe. So on what grounds do they think they can negotiate a new deal? Without reforms? Not Happening. A snowballs chance in hell is probably greater than the EU granting this.

Not having paid the 1.5 Billion to the IMF last week makes Grecce de facto bankcrupt. So the EU could sit and wait and see what happens. Merkel clearly states that there are no grounds for talks and the ball is in the Greeks Corner. A debt cut is out of the question, maybe extending it but this is contingent on what the Greeks have to offer. And they have to be serious about it.

Some of you think it is smart/clever what they did, however they burned a lot of ground with their strategy. My personal view is that the EU won't be the first who will flinch. They cannot allow this to happen otherwise other countries will follow (Spain with their left wing movement comes to mind).

In the end it will be the Greek People who will suffer. Personally I cannot see that Tsipras will succeed with the stakes against him.

regards

Lars

[DrunkenMonkey]

I think that if they toss Greece out, Germany may later regret it. Putin has already expressed some willingness to 'help' Greece out.

And just to remind everyone, there was a time back in the 1940s when the Germans didn't have the same principled opposition to debt forgivness that they have now.

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/26112-an-economic-hit-man-speaks-out-john-perkins-on-how-greece-has-fallen-victim-to-economic-hit-men

[Perla]

So far I had kept my mouth shut.

Yes it was a democratic vote of the people of Greece and they vote Occhi (No). Fair enough.

At least it will be a Pyrrhic Victory for them. Why? the Economic will collapse and if it comes bad it will end up in a humanitarian disaster.

For sure we (the Eurozone) have to accept the vote of the referendum, but Greece are not able or in the position to demand the tax money of other Euro countries so far and not in there wildest dreams. Now the position for the negotiation is a really weak one for them.

On the other hand Ireland, Portugal and Spain had gone through the them procedure. Ask them what they will think about it the posture of the Greece government? If I were them it will upset me. So many cut offs and deprivations in public and private sector for many years and some more to come.

Ask some of our BOTL & SOTL in Ireland, Portugal and Span how they feel? Or how it affects them in their daily life?

One thing what really bothered me is that the Suisse Government in 2013 offered to help to drag down tax refugees. During this time we were talking about 800.000.000,00€, quite a descent lump sum. The Greece government denied the offer - they say no need to the offer or in other words Occhi.

Well that was 2013. During 2013-2015 a lot of money had been transferred into Suisse accounts.

The Austrian economist Friedrich Schneider made a calculation that nowadays 80.000.000.000.00€ are in Suisse accounts. approx. two third are illegal from tax refugees. At a rough estimate the tax income for the Greece government will be something between 10-15.000.000,00€ p.a..

To come to the end - the Greece government has so far denied the money. And they will think about to decree the tax evaders.

I feel really bad for the ordinary men & women like you and me in Greece. A whole country has been devastating, but not because of the EU - because of selfish politician, greedy wankers and corrupt bankers.

And you really want to blame the Germans? Or Mrs Merkel or Mr. Schaeuble? Well that's too easy.

[DrunkenMonkey]

I don't blame the Germans for the situation, nor did my earlier post. I just pointed out that if Greece is thrown out of the Euro, it will present opportunities to Russia (and China) that Berlin might not be happy about.

I also pointed out that there have been times after Germany destroyed their own economy that they benefitted from debt forgiveness. Without debt forgiveness Germany wouldn't have been able to grow their economy as they did post-ww2.

This isn't blaming the creditors. All I'm saying is that blood can't be drawn from a stone. If Greece can't get their economy together then the debt is bad anyway. Greece doesn't need more austerity, they need the Marshall plan.

[Orion21]

I don't blame the Germans for the situation, nor did my earlier post. I just pointed out that if Greece is thrown out of the Euro, it will present opportunities to Russia (and China) that Berlin might not be happy about.

I also pointed out that there have been times after Germany destroyed their own economy that they benefitted from debt forgiveness. Without debt forgiveness Germany wouldn't have been able to grow their economy as they did post-ww2.

This isn't blaming the creditors. All I'm saying is that blood can't be drawn from a stone. If Greece can't get their economy together then the debt is bad anyway. Greece doesn't need more austerity, they need the Marshall plan.

I appreciate this comment, but the success of the Marshall plan came from EVERYONE being in ruin after WWII. Whole countries were highly motivated to rebuild and repair their lives. Today we have very wealthy European countries financing the welfare states of the least financially viable countries in their union. I would be pissed if I was in Germany or England knowing my tax dollars were going to support Greece or Italy because they couldn't get their sh!te together. It seems Greece is just stuck. They have extreme left wing, even fascist, forces in power blaming the Euro for their problems when it's Greece's inability to properly manage their tax system that has caused this mess. The Greeks who have stashed billions and billions of un-taxed assets overseas should be ashamed, as should the politicians who have lived off of Eurozone bailouts instead of fixing their own system. It's sad.

The solution would be fix the tax system in Greece with the help of those who have systems that work. Lower corporate taxes to Irish levels to attract businesses, offer a tax holiday to all those stashed assets so they can be taxed without fear of prosecution/persecution and implement a simple tiered income tax rates so individuals know the tax they need to pay. The only solution is change, democracy and properly manage capitalism.

[ebhead]

Interesting article from NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/business/economy/germanys-debt-history-echoed-in-greece.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

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[Orion21]

Interesting article from NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/business/economy/germanys-debt-history-echoed-in-greece.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

E

I've been reading quite a bit about this exact issue for a few days, but there is a lot of backstory missing. Was the 1953 restructuring also a hedge against a repeat of what happened after WWI that allowed Hitler's rise to power? Remember, Hitler came to power in large part because after WWI the Treaty of Versailles castrated the German State and levied huge reparations upon the German people. The 1953 restructuring was a smart and forward thinking thing to do.

In Greek situation is different from my point of view, but the scary part for me is who has risen to political power in the country because of it's economic issues.

[kuma]

can't fault the Greeks. I would also fight tooth and nail to keep my wonderful city/state/gov. job.

Cash out at age 52 with 96% of my salary for the rest of my life! wondervaaaa