How would the end of the cuban embargo affect cuban cigar prices and market?

[knickerbocker]

Also, for all of you saying that the quality will plummet and the prices will skyrocket. That would only be temporary.... there would be another cigar boom. However, the market would eventually correct itself probably after 24-36 months and you'd be back at where you were.

[CaptainQuintero]

Also, for all of you saying that the quality will plummet and the prices will skyrocket. That would only be temporary.... there would be another cigar boom. However, the market would eventually correct itself probably after 24-36 months and you'd be back at where you were.

It took five years to recover from the millennium crash, and we're still not back up to standard yet!

[Ginseng]

We'll be talking about embargo cigars like they talked about pre-embargo cigars.

This made me snicker.

Wilkey

[Hohenthal]

The way that I see things, Not much will change,The ones that smoke Cubans ,do already(A lot of Americans don't like them anyway).Going to Cuba will not be against the law.

That's what I think too, the vast majority of US cigar smokers have a different, aquired taste.

The ones who like CC's have found a way to source them.

I could be wrong but my feeling is that it won't have a huge impact on sales numbers.

[Ginseng]

That's what I think too, the vast majority of US cigar smokers have a different, aquired taste.

The ones who like CC's have found a way to source them.

I could be wrong but my feeling is that it won't have a huge impact on sales numbers.

Never underestimate the marketing machine. If the there is money to be made on the former forbidden fruit, it will be milked. It doesn't matter if U.S. cigar smokers now have gotten used to the available blends. They will flock to try it. So much of cigar marketing is not about the smokability of the product but rather the promise of image and lifestyle.

Wilkey

[Colt45]

As Andy mentioned early on, an end to the embargo does not mean a change in the Cuban government / end to the monopoly. That, along with the supposed fact that there is an abundance of tobacco in storage, that there has been a cut in production / roller layoffs over these past few years, and that there is suitable unplanted land available for the cultivation of high grade tobacco, makes me think not too much will really change.

Allocation from other regions could be used to help supply new markets as needed. How many people around the world acquire cigars via the internet? New market clients could purchase cigars from online store fronts which could actually be shipped from anywhere in the world - it's done now.

All that said, the much more interesting question for me is what will happen with the Cuban cigar if / when there is no longer a monopoly on the production / competion finally opens up?

[CaptainQuintero]

All that said, the much more interesting question for me is what will happen with the Cuban cigar if / when there is no longer a monopoly on the production / competion finally opens up?

I see private companies picking up where the bhk line and gran reserva programmes have left off; ultra premium glossy gold leaf and bands 4 inches wide

[Ryan]

There is thought out there that the Regional program is an updated version of the old retailer brands, Dunhill, Davidoff, TB Carlin, Robert Lewis, Fox etc., except it's now distributer driven through Habanos rather than the retailers. It would be a good thing for choice if retailers had some more say.

Ayala Lanceros etc.

[Colt45]

I see private companies picking up where the bhk line and gran reserva programmes have left off; ultra premium glossy gold leaf and bands 4 inches wide

I guess we all have our own perspectives.....

I imagine Cubans who know, love, and understand cigars and the business, now unencumbered by most of the bureaucracy, producing great cigars. For me, as an interim step, even privateers licensed by Habanos to produce their own cigars while still considered "under the HSA umbrella" would be a positive step.

[CaptainQuintero]

I guess we all have our own perspectives.....

I imagine Cubans who know, love, and understand cigars and the business, now unencumbered by most of the bureaucracy, producing great cigars. For me, as an interim step, even privateers licensed by Habanos to produce their own cigars while still considered "under the HSA umbrella" would be a positive step.

I hope so, I'm not sure how much of a bite of the apple regular Cubans will get when changes do come. In thinking of when similar regimes fell eg the Soviet Union, the people who were in charge just scooped up all the natural resources and ended up in change again.

[Blakes]

One would hope that if private companies did come in, The Cuban Government, HSA or whoever would somehow protect the way the cigars are made. Like the laws that govern how scotch is made.. Last thing anyone would want to see is big private companies coming in with there machines and chemical fertilisers/pesticides and other big business methods, only interested in chasing the dollar.. that have seen so many once great industries go to s**t.

Other than that I think it might be a good idea to have the marcas independent of each other again, competing on quality, vitola ranges and maybe one day.. price!

[Ryan]

People buy Champagne rather than prosecco or cava because its perceived to he better, it often is, but it can be 3 or 4 time the price.

If the demand is out there to buy a $20 Cuban cigar made of 50c worth of tobacco, rather than 5 1$ machine made cigars from the same tobacco, somebody will meet that demand. No doubt about that.

[bugman78629]