Global Wine Consumption:UP, Production: DOWN

[Puros Y Vino]

Just came across this article.

"At the current pace, a global shortage of wine is fast approaching. “Data suggests there may be insufficient supply to meet demand in coming years, as current vintages are released,” the report says."

[trevlan]

Great read, thanks for sharing.

[LordAnubis]

It's them mulsims i tell ya, convertin the world

I shoudl probably say something other than some good old

I find the article a bit wierd, there is a shortfall now, but there was a huge overproduction in 2005. What the first graph doesn show is "wine stocks".

The third graph with the big red arrow dipping downwards was teh best laugh i have had for a long time. That's true Al Gore type data analysis there. What a crock, i would highly doubt that is statisically significant difference, given the deviation of data in the data set. Approaching equilibrium, that's what that graph shows. And how come when wine consumption dropped in 2008 and 2009 the production didn't decrease by a statisically significant amount?

[Orion21]

Weren't a huge number of vineyards in France destroyed by successive hail storms this past year? Some properties lost up to 80% of their grapes and vines.

[habanolover]

Guys, it's probably my fault ...I've drank my share and most likely a few others as well

[CaptainQuintero]

Wine lakes and grain mountains?

[Ken Gargett]

interesting but i would not be too worried. if the report of the plantings in china are anywhere near true, a shortage of wine is not an issue. and a lot of this is a bit misleading. what sort of wine? top wines being squeezed and prices rocketing but when you see treasury having to tip millions of litres down the drain, there can be too much of an under-supply.

re the hail, some vineyards affected but hail tends to be very localised. and obviously very destructive. tends to mean small swathes get gutted while neighbours are untouched. but all makes great headlines. i think the 'poor' vintage conditions (winemakers moaned about the worst vintage imaginable and now it is in, suddenly have an excellent quality year on their hands - how many times ....) rather than the hail will hurt production.

[westg]

My consumption will remain the same gallons and more gallons

[Ken Gargett]

from 'decanter' mag.

Global wine shortage fears exaggerated, say analysts

• Wednesday 30 October 2013
  
• by Chris Mercer and Ivana Lalovic
  

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Analysts are split on the state of global wine supplies, with some warning that stocks are running at historic lows and others arguing consumers may see more deals from a higher global harvest in 2013.

(Vines in New Zealand, where producers have helped to boost global supplies in 2013, according to the OIV)

Morgan Stanley analysts this week raised fears of a global wine shortage after estimating that the sector is ‘under-supplied’ by around 300m cases, largely due to 2012 yielding the lowest production for several decades.

However, the International Organisation for Vine & Wine (OIV) said this week that a squeeze on supplies has eased during 2013, with wine production expected to return to 2006 levels of around 281m hectolitres.

This is largely a result of bigger harvests in the Southern Hemisphere, notably in Chile and New Zealand, the OIV said.

But, it said the 2013 French harvest is still expected to increase by 7% on an unusually low 2012, to 44m hectolitres, despite serious difficulties with poor weather in Bordeaux and Burgundy.

At this time last year, OIV director general Federico Castellucci warned that, ‘we’re dipping into the reserves for supply’. This week, he praised higher productivity in the vineyards.

Although it is accepted that there is greater balance between supply and demand than a few years ago, some believe the original concerns around shortages were exaggerated.

‘As this past year has unfolded, it has become pretty clear that we were not as tight as we thought,’ Stephen Rannekleiv, expert wine analyst and executive director of agri-food research at Rabobank International, told decanter.com. Some large companies underestimated their production in 2012, he believes.

In the market for bulk wine, prices initially rose towards the end of 2012, but have been falling back this year. ‘Average bulk wine prices in Chile, California, France, Italy and Spain have all come down by anywhere from 10% to 33% since January,’ Rannekleiv said.

‘I would assume that improved availability will create some additional opportunities for suppliers and retailers to offer deals to the consumer.

‘Still, I would not expect a full return to the aggressive types of deals that some retailers were offering prior to 2012.’

‘Supply tightened last year but should be looser this year,’ David Gleave, managing director of UK merchant Liberty Wines, told decanter.com.

‘In 2013, it seems as though quality will be a more important consideration. Prices are soft but [across the market] quality is going to be patchy.’

Read more at http://www.decanter.com/news/wine-news/584497/global-wine-shortage-fears-exaggerated-say-analysts?utm_source=Cheetahmail&utm_medium=email&utm_content=news+alert+link+311013&utm_campaign=Newsletter-311013#zFoDmdgygtzYEe3i.99