Most Cuban cigar smokers are familiar with the 1959 exodus, and the subsequent embargo enacted by president Kennedy. With recent softening of the embargo by president Obama the future of the Cuban cigar industry seems uncertain. What might happen if the Embargo is ultimately dissolved and Cuban tobacco becomes legal once again?
There is wild speculation on the possible outcome. Some speculate Cuban cigars will decline in quality as the demand for Cuban tobacco will overwhelm supply, thus some advocate stockpiling while you can. Some speculate the tobacco stocks will be bought up by established big brand names and new hybrid products will be invented that contain Cuban tobacco and thus a new breed of hybrid cigars will emerge and displace many established brands.
There is another possible outcome, which I suspect has been somewhat overlooked; the return of the Cuban cigar families to Cuba. Virtually all of the top cigar families escaped from Cuba during the exodus, many with loads of Cuban tobacco seeds. A lot of those families established operations in nearby countries, namely Honduras, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, and of course the USA. Most, if not all the Dons from that era have since passed away, but in many cases their offspring still produce cigars. If conditions are right, and once the aging Castros die, I believe several of the cigar families will likely return in some measure to Cuba.
The Cuban cigar families have refined their craft over the years. They have created new strains of tobacco, and improved the rolling and quality control. If they were to bring their knowhow and new strains to Cuba, I believe it could lead to a renaissance. It would take time to get established and it may take years before they have enough supply to produce top quality cigars, but over time they may turn Cuba into an even greater Cigar powerhouse.
Before that happens I'm sure a lot of land claims would need to be settled in some fashion. I know some of these families, and they are still quite bitter over losing their farms and factories, so this matter alone could take decades. Maybe the whole thing will wither on the vine and these disputes may just kill the whole idea. The new FDA regulations may be another huge hurdle. But what if?
I'd like to hear what others think about this.